Degen Show Part (5/27/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/27/21
MIL (-2) at MIA (2)
Pick: Bet $10 MIA (ML +108)
Total: 226 (Lean Over – 237)
Predicted Score: MIL 117 – MIA 120
Notes: Milwaukee decided to show up for game 2. But now the series shifts to Miami where the Heat have been very good. That said – the Bucks road record is pretty much as good as Miami’s home record. So this is no slam dunk here. Miami shoots better at home and that home crowd will be insane. $10 ML bet on the Heat.
PHX (7.5) at LAL (-7.5)
Pick: Lean PHX
Total: 210 (Lean Over – 225)
Predicted Score: PHX 113 – LAL 112
Notes: The fucking Lakers tied up the series and probably ended the series right there. Can Phoenix win in LA? Yeah, probably. But that win just motivated the Lakers and now more than likely, they win the remainder games and I can bitch about them in the next round. I’ll lean the Suns here with the points.
DEN (3.5) at POR (-3.5)
Pick: Bet $10 POR (ML -174)
Total: 227 (Lean Over – 231)
Predicted Score: DEN 113 – POR 118
Notes: Denver came back in game 2 in a big way. But now the series shifts to Portland with the Blazers holding the advantage if they can hold home court for the remainder of the series. I think this should be a tough fought game and while I have Portland winning by 5, I think it ends up a bit closer than that. Yet, I still have the Blazers winning here so a $10 ML bet on Portland.
Montreal Canadiens (205) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-233)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Notes: Carey Price has been one of the best goalies the past decade. And he still has it. In fact, add him to a team with an offense and I’d fear that team in the playoffs. The problem is, Price is the deGrom of the NHL. He gets no goal support and basically has to play shutout hockey if there’s any chance to get a win.
And for that reason, I don’t see the value in betting Montreal. But it’s a tad too much for me to pay for Toronto. A lean on the Maple Leafs.
Carolina Hurricanes (-134) at Nashville Predators (121)
Pick: Bet $20 Nashville
Notes: I have Carolina winning this. But something does not look right about this one. The line is getting better for them while the majority of money is all over them. The Hurricanes have outplayed the Predators by getting better shots, shooting more shots and have been great on the power play kill.
That’s been the one issue: penalties and playing short-handed. Through 5 games, Nashville has had 22 power-plays. Carolina’s coach has been critical of that and we know officials like when coaches criticize them.
I have Carolina winning here but that trappish line movement, the Nashville home crowd. my concern over the officials and a plus line has me betting $20 on Nashville.
KC (148) at TB (-161)
Pitchers: B. Singer (ERA: 4.13 – Road ERA: 3.96 – Avg. ML: 101) vs. S. McClanahan (ERA: 4.07 – Home ERA: 5.93 – Avg. ML: -107)
Pick: Bet $20 KC
Notes: Maybe KC got their win in this series. But after playing Tampa hard again yesterday, this could be one of those matchup issues for the Rays. Tampa’s bullpen should be ready to go today to relieve McClanahan who typically goes only 4-5 innings in his starts.
Singer is coming off a pair of pretty good starts and his road ERA is not too bad. $20 bet on the Royals.
SD (-119) at MIL (110)
Pitchers: R. Weathers (ERA: 1.76 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -106) vs. A. Houser (ERA: 4.66 – Home ERA: 5.2 – Avg. ML: -106)
Pick: Bet $20 MIL
Notes: In the debate over Milwaukee’s ace pitcher on yesterday’s show, we mentioned Lauer – who had another stellar start – Burnes and Woodruff. Honestly, I’d accept the argument for any of the three. Today’s starter, Adrian Houser, does not make the conversation.
Ryan Weathers has pitched well in his starts – if you want to call them starts. More like extended opens.
The Brewers have won the last two games against the Padres so maybe I’m late to the party. But $20 bet on Milwaukee.
CIN (122) at WSH (-133)
Pitchers: J. Hoffman (ERA: 4.36 – Road ERA: 6.15 – Avg. ML: 109) vs. J. Ross (ERA: 5.18 – Home ERA: 7.61 – Avg. ML: 130)
Suspended game from 5/26
PHI (132) at MIA (-143)
Pitchers: S. Howard (ERA: 6 – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 109) vs. P. Lopez (ERA: 3.04 – Home ERA: 0.74 – Avg. ML: -100)
Pick: Lean MIA
COL () at NYM ()
Pitchers: G. Marquez (ERA: 4.56 – Road ERA: 3.21 – Avg. ML: 117) vs. M. Stroman (ERA: 2.76 – Home ERA: 2.8 – Avg. ML: -132)
CHC (-135) at PIT (125)
Pitchers: K. Hendricks (ERA: 4.83 – Road ERA: 4.66 – Avg. ML: -115) vs. T. Anderson (ERA: 4.82 – Home ERA: 3.82 – Avg. ML: 140)
Pick: Lean CHC
CLE (-175) at DET (160)
Pitchers: S. Bieber (ERA: 3.2 – Road ERA: 3.13 – Avg. ML: -147) vs. M. Boyd (ERA: 3.15 – Home ERA: 2.24 – Avg. ML: 138)
Pick: Lean CLE
TOR (123) at NYY (-133)
Pitchers: A. Manoah (n/a) vs. D. German (ERA: 3.06 – Home ERA: 5.11 – Avg. ML: -138)
Pick: Lean TOR
CIN (117) at WSH (-127)
Pitchers: S. Gray (ERA: 4.26 – Road ERA: 5.71 – Avg. ML: -104) vs. S. Strasburg (ERA: 4.17 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -123)
Pick: Lean WSH
BAL (205) at CWS (-227)
Pitchers: B. Zimmermann (ERA: 6.55 – Road ERA: 7.24 – Avg. ML: 136) vs. D. Cease (ERA: 3.35 – Home ERA: 2.2 – Avg. ML: -101)
Pick: Lean CWS
STL (-121) at ARI (111)
Pitchers: C. Martinez (ERA: 4.2 – Road ERA: 4.13 – Avg. ML: -101) vs. M. Peacock (ERA: 2.67 – Home ERA: 3.6 – Avg. ML: 171)
Pick: Lean STL
LAA (133) at OAK (-144)
Pitchers: S. Ohtani (ERA: 2.45 – Road ERA: 3.75 – Avg. ML: -116) vs. C. Bassitt (ERA: 3.73 – Home ERA: 4.11 – Avg. ML: -106)
Pick: Lean LAA
SF () at LAD ()
Pitchers: A. Wood (ERA: 1.75 – Road ERA: 1.69 – Avg. ML: -108) vs. Undecided
TEX (-106) at SEA (-102)
Pitchers: K. Allard (n/a) vs. C. Flexen (ERA: 5.24 – Home ERA: 2.23 – Avg. ML: 136)
Pick: Lean TEX
COL () at NYM ()
Pitchers: A. Senzatela (ERA: 5.14 – Road ERA: 9.84 – Avg. ML: 176) vs. J. Lucchesi (ERA: 8.85 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 106)
TOR () at NYY ()
Pitchers: R. Ray (ERA: 3.06 – Road ERA: 3.52 – Avg. ML: 109) vs. J. Montgomery (ERA: 4.39 – Home ERA: 3.12 – Avg. ML: -140)