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Degen Show Part (5/28/21)
Your favorite Degens give you their Sports Bet Picks for 5/28/21. Listen to the Degen’s NBA win totals episode, their MLB futures episode and Max’s NHL Power rankings post.
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/28/21
NBA
NYK (4) at ATL (-4)
Pick: Bet $10 ATL ML (-179)
Total: 211 (Lean Over – 217)
Predicted Score: NYK 105 – ATL 112
Notes: The Knicks got a big win in game 2 – their first playoff victory since 2013. Which is good because if they lost that game we’d be pulling out the brooms. The Knicks aren’t the best on the road. In their last road trip, they looked a bit more comfortable and in the one road game they played in Atlanta this year, they did win. In fact, other than the game 1 loss, the Knicks have handled the Hawks this season.
But for most of the year, the Hawks have not been healthy. They are now and their depth has been a problem for New York. Unless Derek Rose has another vintage, dominating performance, I’m not sure if the Knicks can hang.
BKN (-7.5) at BOS (7.5)
Pick: Lean BOS
Total: 227 (Lean Over – 230)
Predicted Score: BKN 118 – BOS 112
Notes: The series shifts to Boston where Kyrie hopes that the subtle racism isn’t so bad. I’m sure he doesn’t have to worry about that. It’s the blatant racism he should worry about. The crowd will be about 25% capacity tonight and then even bigger in game 4. Does that give the Celtics a chance to win a game in the series?
Probably not.
The only way that Boston has a chance is for Kemba and Tatum to play their best games and one or two of the Nets’ big 3 to play like shit. I have Brooklyn winning this game by 6 so a lean on Boston with the points – but we probably have a series sweep coming up after today.
LAC (-2) at DAL (2)
Pick: Lean DAL
Total: 219 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: LAC 110 – DAL 112
Notes: Dallas has won the first two games and now the Clippers’ championship aspirations are in question. After jettisoning Doc Rivers for Ty Lue, this team looks to be disappointing again. Luka has been the best player on the court and the question of Kawhi being able to lead a team emerges again. In San Antonio, he was the best player. Not the leader.
In Toronto, he was the best player. But that was Lowry’s locker room.
If the Clippers lose in the first round, you have to think he’s bound for Miami or New York after where he can be the best player without needing to lead. I have the Mavs winning this game by 2 but I just cannot believe that LA will be on the verge of a sweep. Leaning Dallas.
NHL
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Minnesota Wild (160) at Vegas Golden Knights (-179)
Pick: Bet $20 Minnesota
Notes: The funny thing I’ve learned about hockey is that the team that plays better doesn’t always win. You can get better shots you can get more shots and sometimes it’s a puck that bounces past a goalie or a key penalty that leads to a power play that dooms you.
You could argue that when the Wild lost 3 in a row to Vegas, they outplayed Vegas in 2 of those games. And in the previous 2 games they have won, Vegas outplayed them. Such is life in hockey.
But it all comes down to this game 7 – which should favor Vegas to close it out. My numbers have them winning but the value could be on taking a flyer on the Wild with this plus line to steal a win.
So here’s one for Saxy Maxy. A $20 bet on the Wild.
MLB
KC (152) at MIN (-166)
Pitchers: K. Bubic (ERA: 1.64 – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: -132) vs. R. Dobnak (n/a)
Pick: Bet $15 MIN
Notes: The Twins are coming off a sweep of the Orioles and have won 4 in a row. Their offense is starting to pick up and their pitching is not looking like dogshit. KC shit the bed against Tampa yesterday. Trust me. I know. But has been a decent enough road team. Still, I have the Twins winning this one by enough to eat the chalk.
STL (118) at ARI (-128)
Pitchers: J. Oviedo (ERA: 8.18 – Road ERA: 13.5 – Avg. ML: 129) vs. M. Bumgarner (ERA: 4.11 – Home ERA: 3.89 – Avg. ML: 125)
Pick: Bet $15 STL
Notes: The Diamondbacks have lost 11 in a row and I don’t see any reason to believe that they will break that today. Panther’s lord and savior, MadBum, has regressed his last few games. Let’s see if he can get back on track. I like the Cardinals to get the win today – despite Oviedo’s shitty road ERA.
TEX (112) at SEA (-122)
Pitchers: J. Lyles (ERA: 6.11 – Road ERA: 4.45 – Avg. ML: 169) vs. J. Sheffield (ERA: 5.2 – Home ERA: 3.65 – Avg. ML: 140)
Pick: Bet $15 SEA
Notes: I’m betting two games with shitty teams. This is one of them. Seattle took care of business yesterday with a 5-0 win and I like them today. Sheffield has pitched fairly well at home and Jordan Lyles is hittable.
COL (-109) at PIT (101)
Pitchers: J. Gray (ERA: 3.71 – Road ERA: 7.11 – Avg. ML: 148) vs. M. Keller (ERA: 7.64 – Home ERA: 10.33 – Avg. ML: 152)
Pick: Bet $15 PIT
Notes: And here is the second of my shitty games. Colorado won a road game against the Mets – their 3rd of the season. Will they get another against the Pirates? Probably. Just not tonight. The Pirates have lost 6 in a row and they have a good chance to break that today.
Leans
CIN (147) at CHC (-161)
Pitchers: V. Gutierrez (n/a) vs. A. Alzolay (ERA: 4.36 – Home ERA: 5.16 – Avg. ML: 114)
Pick: Lean CHC
MIL (110) at WSH (-119)
Pitchers: B. Anderson (ERA: 4.77 – Road ERA: 5.47 – Avg. ML: 107) vs. J. Lester (ERA: 6.72 – Home ERA: 6 – Avg. ML: 115)
Pick: Lean WSH
ATL (-141) at NYM (130)
Pitchers: I. Anderson (ERA: 2.86 – Road ERA: 2.55 – Avg. ML: -129) vs. T. Walker (ERA: 2.08 – Home ERA: 1.49 – Avg. ML: -127)
Pick: Lean NYM
TOR (-160) at CLE (147)
Pitchers: H. Ryu (ERA: 2.61 – Road ERA: 3.62 – Avg. ML: -119) vs. E. Morgan (n/a)
Pick: Lean TOR
NYY (-238) at DET (214)
Pitchers: G. Cole (ERA: 1.82 – Road ERA: 2.42 – Avg. ML: -196) vs. C. Mize (ERA: 3.5 – Home ERA: 5.7 – Avg. ML: 138)
Pick: Lean NYY
MIA (142) at BOS (-155)
Pitchers: C. Poteet (ERA: 1.06 – Road ERA: 1.8 – Avg. ML: 109) vs. M. Perez (ERA: 3.7 – Home ERA: 4.38 – Avg. ML: -101)
Pick: Lean BOS
BAL (195) at CWS (-215)
Pitchers: M. Harvey (ERA: 6.68 – Road ERA: 7.53 – Avg. ML: 143) vs. D. Keuchel (ERA: 3.99 – Home ERA: 4.86 – Avg. ML: -108)
Pick: Lean CWS
SD (101) at HOU (-109)
Pitchers: D. Lamet (ERA: 2.25 – Road ERA: 4.5 – Avg. ML: -183) vs. F. Valdez (n/a)
Pick: Lean HOU
LAA (135) at OAK (-147)
Pitchers: S. Ohtani (ERA: 2.45 – Road ERA: 3.75 – Avg. ML: -116) vs. S. Manaea (ERA: 4.22 – Home ERA: 3.82 – Avg. ML: -108)
Pick: Lean OAK
SF (180) at LAD (-197)
Pitchers: A. DeSclafani (ERA: 3.58 – Road ERA: 2.45 – Avg. ML: 104) vs. W. Buehler (ERA: 2.79 – Home ERA: 2.99 – Avg. ML: -190)
Pick: Lean LAD