Degen Show (5/3/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/3/22
MIL (4) at BOS (-4)
Pick: Lean MIL
Total: 215.5 (Lean Under – 206)
Predicted Score: MIL 108 – BOS 98
Notes: The Milwaukee Bucks did to the Celtics what the Celtics did to the Nets.
Their swarming defense and ball movement overwhelmed Boston and reminded the Celtics that they are playing the defending champs.
It’s hard to imagine the Celtics being swept in this series and in order to avoid that, the pressure is on them to win today.
They are dealing with a few injuries as Marcus Smart got pretty banged up last game and heading into game 1, there were questions over Jaylen Brown’s health.
If Boston can play to the same level they played Brooklyn, they should be able to even this series up.
But my numbers say they don’t.
Lean on the Bucks.
GSW (-2) at MEM (2)
Pick: Bet $10 MEM ML
Total: 227.5 (Lean Under – 227)
Predicted Score: GSW 112 – MEM 115
Notes: The Grizzlies lost game 1 after blowing a late lead. But they showed they could hang with the Warriors.
Now granted, Golden State had to play some of the game without and ejected Draymond Green.
But still, Memphis proved that their defense can bother the Warriors and they won’t be pushed around like Denver was.
Hard not to like the Grizzlies evening up the series today.
$10 moneyline bet on Memphis.
Pittsburgh Penguins (110) at New York Rangers (-132)
Pick: Bet $10 New York
Notes: When talking about NHL futures yesterday, I mentioned that the Penguins Tristan Jarry was a good goalie but not dominating like Igor Shesterkin.
Well, the Penguins won’t need to worry about Jarry today or the next game.
Because he’s injured.
Which definitely swings the pendulum here to the Rangers for me.
Statistically, the Penguins have the edge over the Rangers. But the goaltending will be too much here.
Not only is Shesterkin likely to win the Vezina Trophy this year but he’s practically unstoppable at home this season.
Add in to mix that the Penguins have been on a downward trend offensively the past few months and hard not to bed New York here.
$10 bet on the Rangers.
Washington Capitals (188) at Florida Panthers (-230)
Pick: Bet $10 Florida
Notes: Washington did this to themselves.
They coughed up a standings lead to the Penguins and instead of heading to New York, they get the nightmare scenario of heading to Florida in the opening round.
The Panthers have a lethal offense and their defense should not be discounted either.
Compare the two teams statistically and Washington doesn’t come close to matching Florida in any.
That includes goaltending where Samsanov has been good, but really vulnerable at times.
Florida could get the sweep in the series and if the prices remain around this amount, I am fine betting them.
$10 bet on the Panthers.
Nashville Predators (250) at Colorado Avalanche (-315)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Dallas Stars (188) at Calgary Flames (-230)
Pick: Lean Calgary
MIN (-166) at BAL (140)
Pick: Bet $10 BAL
Notes: These two teams played a close one yesterday and perhaps that was he game the Orioles should have won.
But I like them today with the plus line.
Minnesota has certainly turned things around while Baltimore is looking at another last place finish in the AL East.
Solid pitching matchup here as Joe Ryan and Bruce Zimmermann are both off to solid starts.
I think this could be another close one and as such, I’ll take a flyer on the Orioles.
$10 bet on Baltimore.
PIT (128) at DET (-152)
Pick: Bet $10 PIT
Notes: Two sub .500 teams matching up today as each team just wrapped a series against a California-based team.
The Pirates grabbed a win against the Padres in their series while the Tigers stole one from the Dodgers.
It was each teams’ lone win over their last 5.
Both teams play in a division where wins can be had – the Tigers more so than the Pirates.
So it is surprising that the Pirates have a better record.
The pitching matchup here is a proverbial crapshoot so I’ll eye up the team with the plus line to grab a win.
$10 be on the Pirates.
SEA (132) at HOU (-156)
Pick: Bet $10 HOU
Notes: I hit on Houston yesterday and I should probably hit it and quit it, but that Houston booty is just too tempting.
The Mariners are just 1-4 over their last 5 games and a loss today would drop them behind the Astros in the standings.
Houston has played very well lately and even though they lost 2 of 3 to Toronto, they held their own against a team that many believe could win it all this year.
Seattle’s offense has been really inconsistent and if their pitching isn’t doing their job, it turns ugly quick.
They have a decent starter on the mound with Chris Flexen but the guy on the other side – Cristian Javier – has looked pretty damn good as he has moved into the 6th starter spot for the Astros.
Javier went over 5 innings in his last start and while he started off with some control issues, he settled in and got the win.
I like him to give some quality innings today and for Houston to grab another one.
$10 bet on Houston.
WSH (136) at COL (-162)
Pick: Bet $10 COL
Notes: The Nationals were on pace to be Cincinnati Reds bad but they took 2 of 3 from the Giants in San Francisco and had a +10 run differential in the series.
Speaking of the Reds, the Rockies managed an easy sweep of Cincinnati – outscoring them 24-8.
Colorado is 9-4 at home this season and have the best batting average in baseball.
That jumps up .287 when at home.
Funny enough, the team with the best away batting average is the Nationals.
They also have one of the worst road ERAs.
I think the Rockies outslug the Nats in this one and grab the win. Maybe eye the over too.
$10 bet on Colorado.
ATL () at NYM ()
SD (-146) at CLE (124)
Pick: Lean SD
ARI (135) at MIA (-155)
Pick: Lean MIA
ATL () at NYM ()
TEX (145) at PHI (-165)
Pick: Lean PHI
NYY (118) at TOR (-138)
Pick: Lean TOR
LAA (-130) at BOS (110)
Pick: Lean LAA
CIN (225) at MIL (-275)
Pick: Lean MIL
CWS (-148) at CHC (126)
Pick: Lean CWS
STL (-112) at KC (-104)
Pick: Lean KC
TB () at OAK ()
SF (126) at LAD (-148)
Pick: Lean SF