Degen Show Part (5/4/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/4/21
BKN (2.5) at MIL (-2.5)
Pick: Bet $20 MIL ML (-135)
Total: 242.5 (Lean Under – 233)
Predicted Score: BKN 114 – MIL 119
Notes: Round 1 went to Milwaukee with a 3 point win. KD and Giannis went back and forth in that one. Even in victory, the Bucks could have walked away very worried about this Brooklyn team that is still missing Harden. I hit on Milwaukee the other day and I’m still banking on them getting a home win today.
SAC (-4.5) at OKC (4.5)
Pick: Bet $20 SAC ML (-192)
Total: 229.5 (Lean Over – 230)
Predicted Score: SAC 120 – OKC 110
Notes: When you are eyeing up the Kings in a moneyline where they are the favorite, you know your NBA betting season has gone down the toilet. De’Aaron Fox is still out and Harrison Barnes is doubtful. But Richaun Holmes has played some good basketball and the Kings have won 2 in a row. OKC is playing for lottery balls right now. $20 ML bet on the Kings. Fuck my life.
GSW (1.5) at NOP (-1.5)
Pick: Bet $20 GSW ML (+100)
Total: 234.5 (Lean Under – 230)
Predicted Score: GSW 116 – NOP 114
Notes: The Warriors have won two in a row after beating New Orleans yesterday by 15. Steph Curry continues to make noise as an MVP candidate as Golden State is 8th in the West and in good shape for a play-in spot. The Pelicans … suck. And their coach was a bad choice before the season and remains the bad choice now. The Pelicans went 5-25 from 3-point land yesterday and that should improve today. But they are 26th in the league in 3-point % and the Warriors are 10th. So if they cannot hit their 3’s, it will be another loss. $20 ML bet on the Warriors.
PHX (-12.5) at CLE (12.5)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 218.5 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: PHX 114 – CLE 109
Notes: Phoenix had a close one against OKC but they won their 4th in a row and that 3-point win didn’t scare Vegas off of giving them another chalky line against another shitty team. The Cavs have lost 6 in a row and are plagued with injuries and in-fighting. Phoenix should win this one but I can’t touch it spread or ML.
CHA (-6.5) at DET (6.5)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 215.5 (Lean Under – 214)
Predicted Score: CHA 106 – DET 108
Notes: Detroit sat a lot of their players in a loss to the Magic yesterday and should start them today. LaMelo ball looked great in his return and Gordon Hayward will be back soon. The Hornets currently sit 8th in the East and available for the play-in games. Should they be healthy, it will be a dangerous team. The Hornets beat Detroit just 3 days ago but my metrics lean Detroit.
DAL (3.5) at MIA (-3.5)
Pick: Lean DAL
Total: 215.5 (Lean Over – 221)
Predicted Score: DAL 112 – MIA 109
Notes: Kristaps Porzingis is listed as doubtful today and that’s no fucking surprise for the Mavs. If he plays, I do have the Mavs winning this game outright and is a game I would eye up as my dog moneyline. Miami has won 4 of 5 and is 19-14 at home – but Dallas is a hell of a road team and the spark from last season’s Heat team just isn’t there yet.
TOR (9.5) at LAC (-9.5)
Pick: Lean TOR
Total: 220.5 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: TOR 109 – LAC 111
Notes: The Clippers have lost 3 in a row and should get back to their winning ways today. The Raptors beat the Lakers 2 days ago but are still a flailing team – currently 3 games behind the Wizards for the 10th spot in the East.
Boston Bruins (-217) at New Jersey Devils (191)
Pick: Bet New Jersey
Notes: This is a lottery ticket here. I like how the line is moving and the Devils have stunned the Bruins a couple of times this season. Boston looked very good in their shutout win yesterday but maybe they are looking ahead to their series with the Rangers this week. $20 bet on the Devils.
Chicago Blackhawks (212) at Carolina Hurricanes (-242)
Pick: Lean Chicago
Notes: Carolina is 19-3-4 at home and the Blackhawks are mired in a terrible losing streak. Still, it’s too much to pay for the Hurricanes here.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-168) at Philadelphia Flyers (151)
Pick: Lean Philadelphia
Notes: I leaned the Flyers yesterday and I am leaning them today. But after the ass-whooping they put on Pittsburgh yesterday, hard to imagine it happening in consecutive nights.
New York Islanders (-265) at Buffalo Sabres (231)
Pick: Lean Buffalo
Notes: Pretty much what I said about the game right above this. Only swap out team names.
Edmonton Oilers () at Vancouver Canucks ()
Notes: Edmonton has won 4 of 5 and their 5-3 win over the Canucks yesterday was a good one. Seeing some local NJ lines on this at Edmonton -190. Seems pricey for me but the Canucks are exhausted right now.
BAL (128) at SEA (-139)
Pitchers: J. Lopez (ERA: 7.64 – Road ERA: 5.87 – Avg. ML: 147) vs. J. Dunn (ERA: 4.18 – Home ERA: 6.43 – Avg. ML: 149)
Pick: Bet $20 BAL
Notes: The Orioles got the series opener yesterday and I think they are poised to get another win today. Lopez has not been one of their better pitchers but has done better on the road. Dunn can be hit hard and those Baltimore bats could put up some runs today.
DET (158) at BOS (-173)
Pitchers: M. Fulmer (ERA: 3.75 – Road ERA: 3.6 – Avg. ML: 144) vs. N. Pivetta (ERA: 2.86 – Home ERA: 2.54 – Avg. ML: 116)
Pick: Bet $20 BOS
Notes: Nick Pivetta is 3-0 this season and his ERA has been pretty solid. His WHIP should be cause for concern but the Boston defense and bats seem to do him right this year. Fulmer has had a decent year too but that Detroit team is dreadful. It is chalky but I have the Sox winning this one.
CLE (121) at KC (-131)
Pitchers: S. Hentges (ERA: n/a – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: n/a) vs. M. Minor (ERA: 5.51 – Home ERA: 6.43 – Avg. ML: -112)
Pick: Bet $20 KC
Notes: Cleveland took game 1 of this series but I like KC in a bounceback today. Mike Minor has not pitched well recently but he’s throwing some nasty stuff this year and could befuddle this somewhat inept Cleveland offense. KC’s bats are doing their thing and Hentges hasn’t had a traditional start this season – so be interesting to see how that goes.
TOR (110) at OAK (-119)
Pitchers: A. Kay (ERA: 11.61 – Road ERA: 11.61 – Avg. ML: 107) vs. C. Irvin (ERA: 3.76 – Home ERA: 3.56 – Avg. ML: 109)
Pick: Bet $20 OAK
Notes: I hit on Oakland yesterday and I should call it quits before it backfires. But I can’t resist. The A’s should get it done today against Anthony Kay and his Melinda Gates’ bank account-size ERA. See, that was a call back to earlier.
SF () at COL ()
Pitchers: A. Wood (ERA: 0.75 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -102) vs. A. Senzatela (ERA: 6 – Home ERA: 4.89 – Avg. ML: 185)
ARI () at MIA ()
Pitchers: R. Smith (ERA: 3 – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 108) vs. S. Alcantara (ERA: 3.23 – Home ERA: 2.98 – Avg. ML: 104)
CWS (-110) at CIN (101)
Pitchers: D. Cease (ERA: 3.17 – Road ERA: 5.36 – Avg. ML: -106) vs. J. Hoffman (ERA: 3.36 – Home ERA: 1.69 – Avg. ML: 118)
Pick: Lean CWS
ATL (-128) at WSH (118)
Pitchers: H. Ynoa (ERA: 3.1 – Road ERA: 6 – Avg. ML: -119) vs. J. Ross (ERA: 3.79 – Home ERA: 9.89 – Avg. ML: 144)
Pick: Lean WSH
MIL (161) at PHI (-176)
Pitchers: E. Lauer (ERA: 0 – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 172) vs. A. Nola (ERA: 3.15 – Home ERA: 1.41 – Avg. ML: -136)
Pick: Lean PHI
HOU (110) at NYY (-119)
Pitchers: Z. Greinke (ERA: 3.48 – Road ERA: 0.86 – Avg. ML: -138) vs. D. German (ERA: 4.05 – Home ERA: 9 – Avg. ML: -145)
Pick: Lean NYY
LAD (-176) at CHC (162)
Pitchers: T. Bauer (ERA: 2.52 – Road ERA: 3.08 – Avg. ML: -179) vs. A. Alzolay (ERA: 4.88 – Home ERA: 5.87 – Avg. ML: 109)
Pick: Lean LAD
TEX (145) at MIN (-158)
Pitchers: K. Gibson (ERA: 2.18 – Road ERA: 4.81 – Avg. ML: 135) vs. J. Happ (ERA: 2.02 – Home ERA: 1.59 – Avg. ML: -135)
Pick: Lean MIN
NYM (-199) at STL (181)
Pitchers: J. deGrom (ERA: 0.51 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -187) vs. J. Oviedo (ERA: 5.4 – Home ERA: 5.4 – Avg. ML: -101)
Pick: Lean STL
SF (110) at COL (-119)
Pitchers: A. Sanchez (ERA: 2.31 – Road ERA: 1.96 – Avg. ML: 109) vs. G. Marquez (ERA: 3.51 – Home ERA: 3.13 – Avg. ML: 123)
Pick: Lean SF
TB (104) at LAA (-112)
Pitchers: S. McClanahan (ERA: 4.5 – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 102) vs. A. Cobb (ERA: 7.6 – Home ERA: 4.5 – Avg. ML: 103)
Pick: Lean TB
PIT () at SD ()
Pitchers: M. Keller (ERA: 8.41 – Road ERA: 5.63 – Avg. ML: 134) vs. R. Weathers (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 126)
LAD () at CHC ()
Pitchers: C. Kershaw (ERA: 2.12 – Road ERA: 2.97 – Avg. ML: -159) vs. K. Hendricks (ERA: 7.7 – Home ERA: 5.68 – Avg. ML: -107)