Degen Show (5/4/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/4/22
PHI (8) at MIA (-8)
Pick: Lean PHI
Total: 208 (Lean Under – 207)
Predicted Score: PHI 102 – MIA 105
Notes: It seems like James Harden has already worn out his welcome in Philly.
In game 1, without Embiid, he had a chance to shine and keep his team in the game.
He scored 16 points on 5-13 from the field.
13 shots. Yeah. James Harden used to take 13 shots in the first minute of a game.
Miami ended up winning that game by 14 and hard to argue they don’t do that again.
My numbers say it will be a little closer so I’ll lean Philly.
But if Jimmy James plays like he did in game 1, Tyrese Maxey will continue to refuse to sit next to him on the bench.
DAL (6.5) at PHX (-6.5)
Pick: Bet $10 DAL +6.5
Total: 216.5 (Lean Over – 220)
Predicted Score: DAL 110 – PHX 110
Notes: Dallas was overwhelmed in game 1 and clawed back at the end to lose only by 7.
Still, it showed the disparity in depth between the Mavs and Suns.
Luka scored 45 points and had some help from Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber.
But Spencer Dinwiddie was nowhere to be found and Jalen Brunson had an off night too.
Phoenix had 6 players score in double digits and saw a rejuvenated performance by Javale McGee.
Phoenix should win again but I like Dallas to keep this a bit closer.
Or maybe I’m chasing waterfalls.
$10 bet on Dallas with the points.
Tampa Bay Lightning (112) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-134)
Pick: Bet $10 Toronto
Notes: Toronto took it to Tampa in game 1 and you expect the Lightning to show up a bit more for game 2.
But I still have the result being the same.
Defensively, Tampa can typically hold their own but when that Maple Leafs offense is playing aggressive, even the best of defenses begin to falter.
Toronto was 4th in high danger shots in the regular season and spot on with their expected goals for versus actual goals for.
That means this offense produced a lot and did so with good fucking shots on goal.
I like them to go up 2-0 in this series.
$10 bet on the Maple Leafs.
Boston Bruins (-102) at Carolina Hurricanes (-118)
Pick: Lean Boston
St. Louis Blues (105) at Minnesota Wild (-126)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Los Angeles Kings (168) at Edmonton Oilers (-205)
Pick: Lean Edmonton
TB (-126) at OAK (108)
Pick: Bet $10 TB
Notes: The Rays will aim to sweep the A’s and give them their 6th straight loss in a row.
I’m always apprehensive of betting on sweeps – especially on a travel day for a team – but it does seem like the Rays have the A’s number this season.
Oakland will have the day off tomorrow for their travel day – so they will have a slight advantage of not being distracted with that.
Still, this A’s offense is pretty fucking terrible so even if they had every player available to them, it probably would not be enough to handle a Rays team that ranks second in road batting average this season.
Tampa’s team ERA has also improved and while Corey Kluber is no longer a name that strikes fear in you, he is having a pretty good season and coming off a rather dominant start.
$10 bet on Tampa.
WSH (130) at COL (-154)
Pick: Bet $10 COL
Notes: OK, chasing waterfalls here and figuring that the Rockies will not lose 2 in a row to the Nationals.
Or maybe the fucking Nationals’ road offense is actually legit.
They lead the league with road batting average at .310, first in road on base percentage with .382 and second with runs scored on the road.
Looking at the pitching matchup, Patrick Corbin is incredibly hittable while Austin Gomber is able to hold his own.
I do anticipate another high-scoring affair here and this time, Colorado should win.
$10 bet on the Rockies.
ARI (132) at MIA (-156)
Pick: Lean MIA
STL (-142) at KC (120)
Pick: Lean STL
PIT (140) at DET (-160)
Pick: Lean PIT
SD (-160) at CLE (140)
Pick: Lean SD
ATL (120) at NYM (-142)
Pick: Lean NYM
SEA (166) at HOU (-198)
Pick: Lean HOU
PIT (100) at DET (-120)
Pick: Lean DET
SD (-135) at CLE (115)
Pick: Lean CLE
TEX (150) at PHI (-178)
Pick: Lean TEX
MIN (-134) at BAL (114)
Pick: Lean MIN
NYY (-138) at TOR (118)
Pick: Lean NYY
LAA (112) at BOS (-132)
Pick: Lean BOS
CIN (225) at MIL (-280)
Pick: Lean MIL
CWS (-152) at CHC (128)
Pick: Lean CWS
SF () at LAD ()