Degen Show Part (5/5/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/5/21
MEM (-4.5) at MIN (4.5)
Pick: Bet $20 MIN ML (+150)
Total: 236.5 (Lean Under – 232)
Predicted Score: MEM 114 – MIN 118
Notes: Minnesota is playing some good basketball right now. Even though they lost to the Pelicans, it was a 4-point loss in OT. That broke their 4-game winning streak that included a pait of wins over Utah. The Grizzlies are not playing their best basketball and their lone win the past 5 games was against Orlando. They then lost to Orlando the next night. Not a reliable team at the moment. I like Minnesota for the upset. $20 ML bet on the Timberwolves.
SAS (5.5) at UTA (-5.5)
Pick: Bet $20 UTA ML (-320)
Total: 222.5 (Lean Over – 224)
Predicted Score: SAS 110 – UTA 114
Notes: Man, the numbers say to bet Utah but how can I not be afraid of San Antonio. Mitchell and Conley will both be out again and the Spurs are 18-13 on the road. The Jazz handled them two days ago but can they do it again? I hope so. $20 ML bet on the Jazz.
POR (-10.5) at CLE (10.5)
Pick: Bet $20 POR ML (-650)
Total: 226.5 (Lean Over – 232)
Predicted Score: POR 121 – CLE 111
Notes: Damian Lillard is listed as questionable but that shouldn’t be an issue. The Blazers should be able to get the win – bouncing back after a loss two days ago to the Hawks. I am a bit worried that they are playing their 6th straight road game but Cleveland is a mess. And their basketball team sucks too. They’ve lost 7 in a row and while they were able to hang with the Suns last night, OT was a different story. $20 ML bet on the Blazers.
BOS (-10.5) at ORL (10.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 218.5 (Lean Over – 225)
Predicted Score: BOS 114 – ORL 111
Notes: After colliding in the last game, Jayson Tatum will be ready to play today but Jaylen Brown will be out. The Celtics lost that one and in fact, they have lost 3 of 5 and are a terrible 13-18 on the road. Orlando has won 3 of 5 games but are not exactly beating elite teams. Boston isn’t elite either so maybe there’s a chance for a win.
PHX (-1.5) at ATL (1.5)
Pick: Lean ATL
Total: 229.5 (Lean Under – 225)
Predicted Score: PHX 113 – ATL 112
Notes: The Suns were pushed to OT yesterday by the Cavs – but managed to get things into gear. It was their 5th win in a row. Atlanta is somewhat healthy now and have won 2 in a row – improving to 20-11 at home.
PHI (-14.5) at HOU (14.5)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 225.5 (Lean Under – 223)
Predicted Score: PHI 115 – HOU 108
Notes: Philly has won 5 in a row and make it 6. The Sixers – when healthy – look like a much different team this season under Doc Rivers. 19-14 on the road is a huge feat for a team that was dreadful on the road last season. Houston did upset Milwaukee a few games ago but don’t think that happens tonight.
SAC (5.5) at IND (-5.5)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 239.5 (Lean Under – 233)
Predicted Score: SAC 117 – IND 116
Notes: I hit on Sacramento yesterday and won’t double down. The metrics on Indy are still skewed thanks to that laugher over OKC. But they are starting to get some players healthy. That didn’t help them against Washington the other night and not sure it helps them here tonight.
WAS (6.5) at MIL (-6.5)
Pick: Lean WAS
Total: 241.5 (Lean Under – 237)
Predicted Score: WAS 119 – MIL 118
Notes: Yeah, I do think Washington can win this game. Milwaukee played against the Nets last night and are in their 3rd game in 4 nights. Washington is playing some great basketball right now. Should be a fun one.
NYK (3.5) at DEN (-3.5)
Pick: Lean NYK
Total: 215.5 (Lean Over – 224)
Predicted Score: NYK 114 – DEN 110
Notes: Damn, I have the Knicks winning this one. But I am not sure that actually happens. Denver is 24-10 at home and will want to get back to their winning ways for playoff seeding reasons. The Knicks are playing their best basketball right now but are in game 3 of their road trip that sees Phoenix and the two LA teams after this. Tough schedule before closing out at home before they hit the playoffs. Yeah, Knicks playoffs. Who could have imagined?
Montreal Canadiens (-155) at Ottawa Senators (139)
Pick: Bet $20 Montreal
Notes: Montreal has won 3 in a row – including a 3-2 win over Ottawa on Saturday. Maybe they are clicking at the right time as they fight for a final playoff spot. But Ottawa has been playing some good hockey lately and could be ready to play spoiler. Not much I love today and this is chalky – but $20 bet on Montreal.
Nashville Predators (-184) at Columbus Blue Jackets (164)
Pick: Lean Columbus
Notes: The Predators eked out a win over the Blue Jackets on Monday. So the value might be with Columbus to get the win today. They only have one win over their last 5 but their goal differential is -4 over that time – meaning they are keeping games close.
Washington Capitals (-130) at New York Rangers (110)
Pick: Lean New York
Notes: After the brawl that led to a whopping $5000 fine for Washington, the Rangers are going to be pissed and motivated to win. The Rangers have lost 3 in a row with a goal differential of -10 in that span. My metrics favor them slightly today but I can’t pull the trigger.
Dallas Stars (138) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-154)
Pick: Lean Dallas
Notes: Dallas has lost 4 in a row and are 8-10-6 on the road. The Lightning are 20-6 at home and their lone loss lately on the road against Detroit. My metrics favor Dallas but the payout is not nearly enough.
Anaheim Ducks (212) at St. Louis Blues (-242)
Pick: Lean St. Louis
Notes: St. Louis is fighting for a playoff spot and should continue their winning ways against the Ducks – who they beat 3-1 on Monday.
Vegas Golden Knights (-125) at Minnesota Wild (105)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Notes: Minnesota at home… But they beat Vegas on Monday 6-5 and not sure they can do it again.
Winnipeg Jets (109) at Calgary Flames (-120)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg
Notes: My metrics say Winnipeg and getting them on a plus line is nice. But fuck that team.
Colorado Avalanche (-260) at San Jose Sharks (227)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Notes: Colorado has beaten San Jose in 3 straight games. Can they make it 4? Probably.
Los Angeles Kings (118) at Arizona Coyotes (-130)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
Notes: I hit on this one on Monday and I am good to lay off this one. LA should win but I got mine already in this mini-series.
SF (-107) at COL (-101)
Pitchers: L. Webb (ERA: 4.32 – Road ERA: 5.96 – Avg. ML: -103) vs. J. Gray (ERA: 3.23 – Home ERA: 1.92 – Avg. ML: 148)
Pick: Bet $20 SF
Notes: These two teams split a doubleheader yesterday but the Giants’ offense has no quit in them. The Rockies have the pitching advantage today with Gray on the mound and his 1.92 home ERA while Webb’s road ERA is 5.96 – but San Francisco has a +22 run differential over their last 10 days and should be able to get to the Rockies’ bullpen. $20 bet on the Giants.
ARI (132) at MIA (-143)
Pitchers: L. Weaver (ERA: 5 – Road ERA: 6.97 – Avg. ML: 101) vs. P. Lopez (ERA: 2.77 – Home ERA: 1.48 – Avg. ML: 105)
Pick: Bet $20 ARI
Notes: I was leaning Miami yesterday and they pulled out the win. Now they have Lopez on the mound and he’s been stellar so far this season. Weaver is definitely hittable but I like Arizona to bounce back today and grab the win. $20 bet on the Diamondbacks.
MIL (-135) at PHI (124)
Pitchers: F. Peralta (ERA: 2.42 – Road ERA: 2 – Avg. ML: -119) vs. C. Anderson (ERA: 5.52 – Home ERA: 3.21 – Avg. ML: 121)
Pick: Bet $20 MIL
Notes: Hard to really trust either team here. The pitching match-up favors Milwaukee and Peralta has put up some damn good road numbers this season. These have been close games and I don’t think the Phillies get the sweep. $20 bet on Milwaukee.
HOU (124) at NYY (-135)
Pitchers: L. Garcia (ERA: 3.38 – Road ERA: 4.34 – Avg. ML: -121) vs. J. Montgomery (ERA: 4.96 – Home ERA: 4.15 – Avg. ML: -150)
Pick: Bet $20 NYY
Notes: New York has a +22 run differential the past 10 days. So yeah, that offense is starting to heat up. Garcia is pitching decent but is 0-3 on the year – meaning Houston’s bats are not backing him up in his starts. I like the Yankees here to grab another win today and setup Cole to face his former team tomorrow with a sweep in mind. $20 bet on the Yankees.
CWS (113) at CIN (-123)
Pitchers: D. Keuchel (ERA: 4.06 – Road ERA: 5.14 – Avg. ML: -112) vs. S. Gray (ERA: 6.48 – Home ERA: 4.39 – Avg. ML: 108)
Pick: Lean CWS
BAL (107) at SEA (-116)
Pitchers: J. Means (ERA: 1.74 – Road ERA: 1.07 – Avg. ML: 117) vs. Y. Kikuchi (ERA: 4.47 – Home ERA: 5.54 – Avg. ML: 115)
Pick: Lean SEA
NYM (-101) at STL (-107)
Pitchers: M. Stroman (ERA: 1.86 – Road ERA: 0.95 – Avg. ML: -136) vs. K. Kim (ERA: 3.41 – Home ERA: 1.76 – Avg. ML: -103)
Pick: Lean STL
ATL (-125) at WSH (115)
Pitchers: M. Fried (ERA: 11.45 – Road ERA: 9 – Avg. ML: -142) vs. E. Fedde (ERA: 4.63 – Home ERA: 8.71 – Avg. ML: 154)
Pick: Lean WSH
DET (171) at BOS (-187)
Pitchers: C. Mize (ERA: 5.15 – Road ERA: 4 – Avg. ML: 137) vs. M. Perez (ERA: 5 – Home ERA: 7.11 – Avg. ML: 104)
Pick: Lean BOS
LAD (-165) at CHC (152)
Pitchers: W. Buehler (ERA: 3.18 – Road ERA: 3 – Avg. ML: -201) vs. A. Alzolay (ERA: 4.88 – Home ERA: 5.87 – Avg. ML: 109)
Pick: Lean CHC
TEX () at MIN ()
Pitchers: H. Yang (ERA: n/a – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: n/a) vs. L. Thorpe (ERA: 4.5 – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 113)
PIT (213) at SD (-236)
Pitchers: J. Brubaker (ERA: 2.66 – Road ERA: 2.12 – Avg. ML: 119) vs. Y. Darvish (ERA: 2.17 – Home ERA: 2.7 – Avg. ML: -133)
Pick: Lean SD
CLE (-158) at KC (145)
Pitchers: S. Bieber (ERA: 2.51 – Road ERA: 2.4 – Avg. ML: -131) vs. B. Singer (ERA: 3.12 – Home ERA: 3.83 – Avg. ML: -104)
Pick: Lean KC
TB () at LAA ()
Pitchers: R. Yarbrough (ERA: 6.89 – Road ERA: 5.29 – Avg. ML: -107) vs. S. Ohtani (ERA: 3.41 – Home ERA: 1.1 – Avg. ML: -156)
TOR (109) at OAK (-118)
Pitchers: R. Ray (ERA: 2.84 – Road ERA: 2.45 – Avg. ML: 117) vs. C. Bassitt (ERA: 3.96 – Home ERA: 4.74 – Avg. ML: -109)
Pick: Lean TOR
NYM () at STL ()
Pitchers: Undecided vs. J. Oviedo (ERA: 5.4 – Home ERA: 5.4 – Avg. ML: -101)