Degen Show (5/6/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/6/22
MIA (-3) at PHI (3)
Pick: Lean MIA
Total: 210 (Lean Under – 204)
Predicted Score: MIA 107 – PHI 97
Notes: As it stands right now, Joel Embiid is listed as out for today’s game.
But it seems like that could change later in the day.
The fact is, they fucking need him if they don’t want to get swept.
James Harden is doing his best Ben Simmons impression in these playoffs.
He’s afraid to shoot and his teammates wish he’d get traded.
The Heat are dealing with some injuries and if they want to win a title, they will need a healthy Tyler Herro and a healthy Kyle Lowry.
Herro should play today while Lowry might end up sitting this one out again.
I think Miami should win this one but there is a lot of uncertainty here.
So just a lean on the Heat.
PHX (-0.5) at DAL (0.5)
Pick: Bet $10 DAL ML
Total: 219.5 (Lean Under – 211)
Predicted Score: PHX 103 – DAL 108
Notes: I have bet the Mavs with the points in the first two games of this series.
And that has not gone well.
So time to mix things up.
Sure, the Mavs have been completely outmatched so far.
And sure, Luka’s one man show does not seem enough.
And yeah, ok, the Suns beat them all 3 times in the regular season by an average of 8 points per game.
But, the Mavs won’t get swept here, right?
My numbers say the Mavs grab at least one of these home games. I’m banking on it being today.
$10 bet on Dallas.
Carolina Hurricanes (100) at Boston Bruins (-120)
Pick: Bet $10 Boston
Notes: Boston has looked outmatched so far in this series.
In fact, over their last 3 games, the Bruins have been outscored 15 to 5.
Panther, get your calculator to confirm, but I think that’s a 3:1 ratio.
Not very good.
The Hurricanes swept the Bruins during the regular season too – outscoring them 16 to 1 in those 3 games.
Panther, get your calculator again but I think that’s a 16:1 ratio.
Really, not very good.
So seeing them as a favorite today is probably not a smart bet to make. But it’s a bet I’m going to make.
I could end up regretting it as maybe Carolina is just a terrible match-up for Boston.
But the Bruins were an unlucky team based on PDO while Carolina was slightly on the lucky side.
I am banking on things evening out a bit. At least for tonight.
$10 bet on the Bruins.
Toronto Maple Leafs (102) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-122)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Minnesota Wild (-102) at St. Louis Blues (-118)
Pick: Lean St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers (-150) at Los Angeles Kings (125)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
CWS (152) at BOS (-180)
Pick: Bet $10 BOS
Notes: The start of this season has not been good for either of the Sox teams.
After last season, there were expectations that both teams could make a run into the playoffs.
After winning 3 in a row, the White Sox appear to be getting things right – after tracking to be a 100 loss team.
The Red Sox have been mediocre all year – posting a 10-16 record and going 1-4 over their last 5.
That includes a pair of losses to the Orioles and the Angels.
The Red Sox continue their homestand while the White Sox head over to Boston after a 2-game series sweep over their Chicago neighbors.
This game is getting a bit chalky and I think its because of how well Nathan Eovaldi has pitched to start the season.
Any worse and I probably bail out of this one.
In fact, it’s a tad bit out of probability already – but I think Boston comes out strong today.
$10 bet on the Red Sox.
TOR (-148) at CLE (126)
Pick: Bet $10 TOR
Notes: Missed on the Blue Jays yesterday. Thanks KOD.
So I’ll chase waterfalls and jump on them again today.
Fantastic pitching matchup as Kevin Gausman takes on Shane Justin Bieber.
The Jays have not found consistent success on the road this season but I like them to bounce back today and grab the win.
$10 bet on Toronto.
OAK (154) at MIN (-184)
Pick: Bet $10 MIN
Notes: Oakland has lost 6 in a row after being swept by the Rays and Guardians in consecutive series.
They hit the road today where it’s expected to have at least a dozen A’s fans in the stands in Minnesota.
Which is roughly 10 more than they’ve had during their homestand.
Minnesota just dropped a pair to the Orioles and look to get back to their winning ways.
The Twins are 8-4 at home and with Josh Winder on the mound facing off against this dreadful A’s offense, I think they make it 9-4 after today.
$10 bet on the Twins.
LAD () at CHC ()
PIT (-124) at CIN (106)
Pick: Lean PIT
KC (108) at BAL (-126)
Pick: Lean BAL
NYM (-142) at PHI (120)
Pick: Lean NYM
TEX (200) at NYY (-245)
Pick: Lean NYY
MIL () at ATL ()
DET (172) at HOU (-205)
Pick: Lean HOU
WSH () at LAA ()
COL (132) at ARI (-156)
Pick: Lean ARI
TB (106) at SEA (-124)
Pick: Lean TB
MIA (110) at SD (-130)
Pick: Lean SD
STL (-118) at SF (100)
Pick: Lean SF