Degen Show Part (5/7/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/7/21
MIN (5.5) at MIA (-5.5)
Pick: Bet $20 MIN ML (+200)
Total: 221.5 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: MIN 113 – MIA 110
Notes: Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler are questionable for Miami. If Butler does play, he will like taking it to his former team. Miami is 19-15 at home while Minnesota is only 8-25 on the road. So why am I betting the T-Wolves to steal a win here? Because they are playing some damn good basketball right now and it’s worth the payout to risk it. Their losses have been close and their road play has been better recently. So a bit of a flyer here. $20 ML bet on Minnesota +200.
LAL (6.5) at POR (-6.5)
Pick: Bet $20 POR ML (-280)
Total: 221.5 (Lean Over – 228)
Predicted Score: LAL 111 – POR 117
Notes: Anthony Davis left the game on Thursday with back spasms and LeBron is out again. The Lakers have 1 win over their last 5 – a close one over the Nuggets. Portland has one loss in their last 5 and those were all road games. I like the Blazers to get the win today. $20 ML bet on Portland -280.
NOP (8.5) at PHI (-8.5)
Pick: Bet $20 PHI ML (-400)
Total: 229 (Lean Under – 225)
Predicted Score: NOP 108 – PHI 117
Notes: The Sixers are rolling right now. They have won 6 in a row and are 25-7 at home – taking on a Pelicans team that is 12-19 on the road. The Pelicans have won 3 of 5 but beat OKC, MIN and GSW in the second game of a back-to-back. Philly should get the win again today making them a moneyline bet for me. $20 on Philly ML -400.
BOS (-2.5) at CHI (2.5)
Pick: Bet $20 BOS ML (-145)
Total: 223.5 (Lean Under – 218)
Predicted Score: BOS 111 – CHI 107
Notes: The Bulls showed up yesterday. Trust me. I know. And now my fuck the Bulls campaign continues as I rip the band-aid off. Yes, Boston is not a team anyone should trust. And yes, they are only 14-18 on the road. And yes, they lost to fucking OKC recently. And yes, Jaylen Brown is out for them. But I think getting the Bulls in the second night of a back-to-back and motivation to staty out of the play-in games should be enough for them to pull out the win today. If not, well, fuck them too. $20 ML bet on the Celtics -145.
HOU (16.5) at MIL (-16.5)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 230.5 (Lean Over – 239)
Predicted Score: HOU 114 – MIL 125
Notes: Milwaukee has won 4 in a row and their last loss was against the Rockets. Houston has subsequently lost 3 in a row after that. Milwaukee should get the win this go around.
ORL (9) at CHA (-9)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 216 (Lean Under – 214)
Predicted Score: ORL 106 – CHA 108
Notes: The Hornets are coming off a thrashing by the Bulls last night. The Magic have won 3 of 5 but looked overwhelmed 2 days ago by the Celtics. I have this as a close one.
CLE (10.5) at DAL (-10.5)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 220.5 (Lean Over – 221)
Predicted Score: CLE 106 – DAL 115
Notes: Darius Garland is out for CLE. Kristaps Porzingis is doubtful for DAL. The Mavs managed to get a big win yesterday and should get a win today too against a Cavs team that has lost 8 in a row.
DEN (2.5) at UTA (-2.5)
Pick: Lean UTA
Total: 219.5 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: DEN 103 – UTA 109
Notes: Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell are out for Utah but the Jazz have won 3 straight games. Denver is coming off a big win over the Knicks. Utah has been stellar at home but the Nuggets have been a solid road team.
NYK (6) at PHX (-6)
Pick: Lean NYK
Total: 218 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: NYK 111 – PHX 112
Notes: The Knicks continue their road trip after losing to Denver in a bad way the other night. This is their 4th straight road game and face a Suns team that is 25-9 at home. Phoenix was beaten badly by Atlanta the other night but should bounce back for a win.
SAS (-3.5) at SAC (3.5)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 227.5 (Lean Over – 234)
Predicted Score: SAS 118 – SAC 116
Notes: The Spurs have lost 5 in a row and Sacramento has won 4 in a row. Yet San Antonio is the road favorite here. I do think they win but will be close.
St. Louis Blues (144) at Vegas Golden Knights (-161)
Pick: Bet $20 Vegas
Notes: Here I go again fading the Blues. I’m sure it will come to bite me in the ass. But Vegas has only 4 losses at home this season and are gearing up for the playoffs. When these teams played last month, they split a pair of games – with the Knights dominating game one and St. Louis holding them to only 1 goal the next. But in general, Vegas has had the Blues’ number this season and should get it done today.
Detroit Red Wings (137) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-152)
Pick: Lean Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers (160) at Washington Capitals (-179)
Pick: Lean Philadelphia
Dallas Stars (132) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-147)
Pick: Lean Dallas
Anaheim Ducks (257) at Minnesota Wild (-298)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Colorado Avalanche (-277) at Los Angeles Kings (241)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Arizona Coyotes (-101) at San Jose Sharks (-109)
Pick: Lean San Jose
ARI (123) at NYM (-133)
Pitchers: Z. Gallen (ERA: 3.56 – Road ERA: 2.21 – Avg. ML: 101) vs. D. Peterson (ERA: 4.85 – Home ERA: 2.25 – Avg. ML: -102)
Pick: Bet $20 NYM
Notes: Ripping the band-aid off twice in the same day. And I’m sure it will hurt twice as much. I hate fading Zac with a C today – especially with his stellar road ERA – but the Diamondbacks aren’t great on the road (9-11) and are coming off a sweep by the Fish in which their offense was nonexistent. CitiField is not a place to get an offense going. The Mets are equally offensively challenged but hoping they can scratch out the win today.
CIN (127) at CLE (-138)
Pitchers: W. Miley (ERA: 2.67 – Road ERA: 1.64 – Avg. ML: 103) vs. Z. Plesac (ERA: 5 – Home ERA: 4.22 – Avg. ML: -103)
Pick: Bet $20 CLE
Notes: Cleveland has won 5 in a row after sweeping the Royals and put Zach Plesac on the mound to face off against Wade Miley. Miley has been sensational this year and even better on the road. But I like how Cleveland’s offense is finally starting to pick up and think they nab the series opener win today.
COL (185) at STL (-204)
Pitchers: A. Gomber (ERA: 6.04 – Road ERA: 7.46 – Avg. ML: 166) vs. J. Flaherty (ERA: 3.43 – Home ERA: 1.5 – Avg. ML: -114)
Pick: Bet $20 STL
Notes: Last season, this game gets eliminated from my Excel spreadsheet with a big chalk threshold sign flashing next to it. Now, -200 or so is OK if the implied probability is there. The Rockies are 2-11 on the road this season and Flaherty is 5-0 in his starts. His home ERA is 1.5 while Gomber’s road ERA is 7.46. Call me chalk Max today.
TB (126) at OAK (-136)
Pitchers: R. Hill (ERA: 6.45 – Road ERA: 12 – Avg. ML: -105) vs. S. Manaea (ERA: 3.52 – Home ERA: 4.46 – Avg. ML: -104)
Pick: Bet $20 TB
Notes: I need to chase the chalk down by taking a dog. And the Rays appear to be my favorite dog on the board today. Yes, Rich Hill has looked like shit and Manaea has been pretty good. But Tampa has won 5 in a row and are playing some all around good baseball lately. Oakland just gave up 19 runs over two games against the Blue Jays and while that is not Tampa’s way of winning – they can score when the pitching allows them to. Here’s hoping they can win #6 in a row.
PIT (128) at CHC (-139)
Pitchers: T. Cahill (ERA: 7.47 – Road ERA: 9 – Avg. ML: 156) vs. Z. Davies (ERA: 8.75 – Home ERA: 5.45 – Avg. ML: 112)
Pick: Lean PIT
BOS (-157) at BAL (144)
Pitchers: E. Rodriquez (ERA: 4.29 – Road ERA: 4.8 – Avg. ML: -116) vs. M. Harvey (ERA: 4.26 – Home ERA: 4.14 – Avg. ML: 137)
Pick: Lean BOS
WSH (169) at NYY (-185)
Pitchers: P. Corbin (ERA: 8.18 – Road ERA: 11.11 – Avg. ML: 105) vs. J. Taillon (ERA: 5.76 – Home ERA: 1.8 – Avg. ML: -129)
Pick: Lean NYY
MIL (123) at MIA (-134)
Pitchers: B. Suter (ERA: n/a – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: n/a) vs. T. Rogers (ERA: 1.91 – Home ERA: 1.64 – Avg. ML: 122)
Pick: Lean MIA
MIN (-141) at DET (130)
Pitchers: M. Shoemaker (ERA: 8.07 – Road ERA: 5.93 – Avg. ML: -134) vs. T. Skubal (ERA: 7.27 – Home ERA: 3.53 – Avg. ML: 161)
Pick: Lean MIN
PHI (148) at ATL (-162)
Pitchers: Z. Eflin (ERA: 3.53 – Road ERA: 6.64 – Avg. ML: -103) vs. C. Morton (ERA: 5.15 – Home ERA: 5.79 – Avg. ML: -131)
Pick: Lean ATL
SEA (-101) at TEX (-108)
Pitchers: C. Flexen (ERA: 3.33 – Road ERA: 4.5 – Avg. ML: 144) vs. M. Foltynewicz (ERA: 4.35 – Home ERA: 4.32 – Avg. ML: 141)
Pick: Lean SEA
CWS (-148) at KC (136)
Pitchers: C. Rodon (ERA: 0.72 – Road ERA: 0.9 – Avg. ML: -122) vs. B. Keller (ERA: 8.7 – Home ERA: 14.4 – Avg. ML: 115)
Pick: Lean KC
TOR (124) at HOU (-135)
Pitchers: R. Stripling (ERA: 7.22 – Road ERA: 8.71 – Avg. ML: 126) vs. J. Urquidy (ERA: 3.78 – Home ERA: 4.5 – Avg. ML: -133)
Pick: Lean TOR
LAD (-149) at LAA (137)
Pitchers: J. Urias (ERA: 2.9 – Road ERA: 0.86 – Avg. ML: -191) vs. G. Canning (ERA: 6.24 – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: -106)
Pick: Lean LAD
SD (-142) at SF (131)
Pitchers: B. Snell (ERA: 3.67 – Road ERA: 8.49 – Avg. ML: -127) vs. A. DeSclafani (ERA: 2 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -104)
Pick: Lean SF