Degen Show Part (5/8/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 5/8/21
WAS (-3.5) at IND (3.5)
Pick: Bet $20 WAS ML (-145)
Total: 247.5 (Lean Under – 245)
Predicted Score: WAS 125 – IND 120
Notes: Washington was able to easily handle the Pacers when they last played a few games ago and I am banking on them doing it again. The way they are playing now, it really seems like nobody can beat the Wiz. Their two recent losses were by a combined 2 points. A 1 point loss to Milwaukee on the road and a 1 point loss to Dallas on the road. Russ and Beal are playing great together right now and powering Washington into the playoffs after a dreadful start to the season. $20 ML bet on Washington.
BKN (-4) at DEN (4)
Pick: Bet $20 DEN ML (+140)
Total: 231.5 (Lean Under – 228)
Predicted Score: BKN 112 – DEN 116
Notes: Betting on Denver means betting on the Nets losing 5 in a row. Looks like I’m betting on Brooklyn to lose 5 straight. The Nets are playing their 4th straight road game. Kyrie dropped 45 points on Thursday and Luka was able to power Dallas past the Nets. Denver is coming off a loss to the Jazz yesterday but they are back home where they are 25-10 on the season and 8-1 over the past month. The Nets have been 4-6 on the road over that same stretch and 7-8 overall the past month. Not inspiring basketball as they head to the playoffs. Until Harden is back, I can bet against this team. $20 ML bet on Denver.
SAS (4.5) at POR (-4.5)
Pick: Bet $20 ML POR (-180)
Total: 229.5 (Lean Over – 233)
Predicted Score: SAS 114 – POR 119
Notes: The Spurs are dangerous on the road. See last night’s game over the Kings as an example. Of course, the Kings fucking blow. But that’s besides the point. The Blazers got a good win over the Lakers last night and you have to love how they are playing ball right now. One concern is that their home shooting the past few games has been awful. I think they can get things going in the right direction at home tonight and grab a win. $20 ML bet on the Blazers.
DET (10.5) at PHI (-10.5)
Pick: Lean PHI
Total: 221.5 (Lean Under – 215)
Predicted Score: DET 102 – PHI 113
Notes: Philly got a close win yesterday – which made me happy I moneylined them. Do they win again today? Yeah, more than likely. But in a back-to-back there might be a No-el Embiid sighting tonight and it’s too much chalk for me.
MEM (-4.5) at TOR (4.5)
Pick: Lean TOR
Total: 226.5 (Lean Under – 221)
Predicted Score: MEM 112 – TOR 109
Notes: Lowry and VanVleet are both out for Toronto but they should be able to keep this close. With them, it could have been a moneyline play on the Raptors since I hate how Memphis is playing right now.
OKC (14.5) at GSW (-14.5)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 223.5 (Lean Under – 223)
Predicted Score: OKC 107 – GSW 116
Notes: Don’t look now, the Thunder on a 5 game losing streak. That stupid fucking win over the Celtics seems ages ago. The Warriors have won 3 of 4 and should notch another today.
HOU (14.5) at UTA (-14.5)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 226.5 (Lean Over – 235)
Predicted Score: HOU 112 – UTA 123
Notes: The Jazz have managed to win even without Conley and Mitchell. So can they beat a Houston team missing John Wall and possibly Christian Wood too? It’s possible.
Vancouver Canucks (195) at Edmonton Oilers (-245)
Pick: Bet $20 Vancouver
Notes: Maybe I’m a few days late here since the Canucks beat the Oilers 6-3 on Thursday. But this is their 4th straight game and I still see great value in Vancouver winning two in a row against and inconsistent Oilers team.
Arizona Coyotes (-110) at San Jose Sharks (-110)
Pick: Bet $20 San Jose
Notes: A little bit of gambler’s fallacy here I guess – but after Arizona won last night, I like the Sharks to bounce back and get the win today. When I look at expected goals for and apply team PDO and penalty minutes, the Sharks underplayed last game and should balance to their norm today. Or at least I hope they do. $20 bet on San Jose.
New York Rangers (249) at Boston Bruins (-288)
Pick: Lean New York
Buffalo Sabres (290) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-360)
Pick: Lean Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning (-115) at Florida Panthers (-105)
Pick: Lean Florida
Philadelphia Flyers (160) at Washington Capitals (-190)
Pick: Lean Philadelphia
Montreal Canadiens (193) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-219)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Detroit Red Wings (120) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-140)
Pick: Lean Detroit
New Jersey Devils (205) at New York Islanders (-233)
Pick: Lean New Jersey
Ottawa Senators (170) at Winnipeg Jets (-200)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks (235) at Minnesota Wild (-290)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Carolina Hurricanes (-122) at Nashville Predators (111)
Pick: Lean Carolina
Notes: This one seems trappish.
St. Louis Blues (150) at Vegas Golden Knights (-180)
Pick: Lean Vegas
Colorado Avalanche (-280) at Los Angeles Kings (230)
Pick: Lean Colorado
WSH (108) at NYY (-117)
Pitchers: M. Scherzer (ERA: 2.54 – Road ERA: 4.91 – Avg. ML: -108) vs. C. Kluber (ERA: 3.16 – Home ERA: 1.67 – Avg. ML: -150)
Pick: Bet $20 WSH
Notes: The Nats pulled out the win yesterday. Can they do it again? Kluber has been pretty solid and his home ERA has been stellar. Scherzer has not been lights out but is coming off a very good start and I think he builds off that.
COL (162) at STL (-177)
Pitchers: C. Gonzalez (ERA: 4.22 – Road ERA: 5.07 – Avg. ML: 123) vs. C. Martinez (ERA: 3.74 – Home ERA: 2.98 – Avg. ML: 102)
Pick: Bet $20 STL
Notes: I hit on the Cardinals yesterday and watching this Rockies team on the road just makes me want to bet against them each time.
MIN (-179) at DET (163)
Pitchers: J. Berrios (ERA: 3.71 – Road ERA: 1.67 – Avg. ML: -132) vs. J. Urena (ERA: 3.58 – Home ERA: 6.3 – Avg. ML: 148)
Pick: Bet $20 MIN
Notes: The Twins got it done yesterday and should again today.
CIN (102) at CLE (-111)
Pitchers: L. Castillo (ERA: 6.16 – Road ERA: 7.2 – Avg. ML: -118) vs. A. Civale (ERA: 3.34 – Home ERA: 3.23 – Avg. ML: -108)
Pick: Bet $20 CLE
Notes: After being no hit yesterday, the Indians have to be able to score on Castillo. Right?
TOR (131) at HOU (-142)
Pitchers: S. Matz (ERA: 4.89 – Road ERA: 4.07 – Avg. ML: -116) vs. C. Javier (ERA: 1.79 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -118)
Pick: Bet $20 HOU
Notes: Cristian Javier has been fantastic and near elite Steven Matz is slumping.
CWS (-162) at KC (148)
Pitchers: L. Lynn (ERA: 1.86 – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: -137) vs. D. Lynch (ERA: 6.43 – Home ERA: 6.43 – Avg. ML: 102)
Pick: Bet $20 KC
Notes: I finally get to make my David Lynch on the Royals!
PIT (157) at CHC (-171)
Pitchers: W. Crowe (ERA: 4 – Road ERA: 2.25 – Avg. ML: 149) vs. T. Williams (ERA: 6.16 – Home ERA: 2.81 – Avg. ML: 114)
Pick: Lean PIT
SD (-131) at SF (121)
Pitchers: J. Musgrove (ERA: 2.65 – Road ERA: 1.69 – Avg. ML: -154) vs. K. Gausman (ERA: 2.07 – Home ERA: 3.86 – Avg. ML: 102)
Pick: Lean SF
TB (-129) at OAK (119)
Pitchers: T. Glasnow (ERA: 2.08 – Road ERA: 1.96 – Avg. ML: -143) vs. F. Montas (ERA: 5.96 – Home ERA: 7.91 – Avg. ML: 102)
Pick: Lean TB
MIL () at MIA ()
Pitchers: A. Houser (ERA: 3.66 – Road ERA: 2.37 – Avg. ML: 103) vs. Undecided
SEA () at TEX ()
Pitchers: L. Newsome (ERA: 36 – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 127) vs. K. Arihara (ERA: 7.83 – Home ERA: 11.61 – Avg. ML: 162)
BOS () at BAL ()
Pitchers: G. Richards (ERA: 4.47 – Road ERA: 1.64 – Avg. ML: -112) vs. Z. Lowther (ERA: n/a – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: n/a)
ARI () at NYM ()
Pitchers: M. Kelly (ERA: 5.87 – Road ERA: 7.71 – Avg. ML: 132) vs. J. Lucchesi (ERA: 13.17 – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: -106)
PHI (154) at ATL (-169)
Pitchers: V. Velasquez (ERA: 3.83 – Road ERA: 5.56 – Avg. ML: -110) vs. I. Anderson (ERA: 3.34 – Home ERA: 3.68 – Avg. ML: -125)
Pick: Lean ATL
LAD () at LAA ()
Pitchers: C. Kershaw (ERA: 2.98 – Road ERA: 4.69 – Avg. ML: -159) vs. D. Bundy (ERA: 4 – Home ERA: 5.29 – Avg. ML: -116)