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Degen Show Part (6/12/21)
Your favorite Degens give you their Sports Bet Picks for 6/12/21. Listen to the Degen’s NBA win totals episode, their MLB futures episode and Max’s NHL Power rankings post.
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 6/12/21
NBA
UTA (4.5) at LAC (-4.5)
Pick: Bet $10 UTA ML (+167)
Total: 223 (Lean Over – 224)
Predicted Score: UTA 113 – LAC 111
Notes: The Jazz have won the first two games in the series – which is no surprise. This is a team that has rarely lost at home this year. For the Clippers, they are in familiar yet unfamiliar territory in these playoffs. Familiar because they are down 2-0. Unfamiliar because they are down 2-0 and heading home for the next two games.
The Clippers and Mavs traded home losses until game 7 – when the Clippers finally managed to win at the Staples Center. On the season, LA was a pretty good home team – with their home EFG% hovering above 57%. The Clippers are also a top 10 defense – meaning they should, in theory, be able to hang with a team like Utah.
My problem here is that Donovan Mitchell is playing at a level that Kawhi looked like a few seasons back when he powered the Raptors to the championship. Add to the mix that Utah’s defense was ranked 4th in defensive efficiency.
As a quick aside – the Warriors ended up 5th in defensive efficiency. So yeah, Draymond’s complaints about Gobert getting DPOY might be a bit more closer to reality than many of us think.
Do I think LA goes down 3-0? No. But is the implied probability telling me to take Utah on the moneyline? Yes.
So that’s my play here. $10 ML bet on the Jazz.
NHL
No NHL games today. The final 4 starts on Sunday as the Islanders head to Tampa to take on the Lightning.
MLB
NYY (-119) at PHI (110)
Pitchers: J. Taillon (ERA: 5.4 – Road ERA: 9.87 – Avg. ML: -132) vs. V. Velasquez (ERA: 4.09 – Home ERA: 3.6 – Avg. ML: 102)
Pick: Bet $10 PHI
Notes: The Phillies and Yankees were off yesterday – which is always odd to see teams getting Friday night games off. But they meet up today with the Phils winners of 4 of their last 5. The Phillies are markedly better at home compared to being on the road while the Yankees have been hit or miss. Not just on the road. Just in general.
Home team, with the better pitcher and catching a plus line. Sign me up.
$10 bet on the Phils.
KC (135) at OAK (-147)
Pitchers: J. Kowar (ERA: 54.0 – Road ERA: 54.0 – Avg. ML: 118) vs. J. Kaprielian (ERA: 3.19 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -125)
Pick: Bet $10 OAK
Notes: The second coming of Jacob deGrom takes the mound today. The only difference is that deGrom’s ERA is 0.56 and Jackson Kowar’s is 54. The Royals once again face off against Oakland and through two games, they have played the A’s very well.
But I think this is the game that the A’s break out a bit and get a more decisive win. $10 bet on Oakland.
COL (122) at CIN (-132)
Pitchers: G. Marquez (ERA: 3.66 – Road ERA: 2.62 – Avg. ML: 113) vs. W. Miley (ERA: 2.99 – Home ERA: 2.75 – Avg. ML: 104)
Pick: Bet $10 CIN
Notes: If you download and listen to yesterday’s show, we asked, is there any way the Reds should be a -300 favorite? I guess the answer was yes. And now at a paltry -132, with a pretty good pitcher on the mound and facing a team that is 5-25 on the road this season, I guess they are the play today too.
$10 bet on the Reds.
SF () at WSH ()
Pitchers: K. Gausman (ERA: 1.28 – Road ERA: 0.72 – Avg. ML: -103) vs. E. Fedde (ERA: 4.45 – Home ERA: 7.78 – Avg. ML: 137)
Pick: TBD
PIT (248) at MIL (-278)
Pitchers: C. Kuhl (ERA: 5.71 – Road ERA: 6.19 – Avg. ML: 169) vs. C. Burnes (ERA: 1.98 – Home ERA: 2.41 – Avg. ML: -139)
Pick: Lean MIL
ATL () at MIA ()
Pitchers: M. Fried (ERA: 4.89 – Road ERA: 6 – Avg. ML: -125) vs. Undecided
Pick: TBD
SD (-125) at NYM (115)
Pitchers: J. Musgrove (ERA: 2.69 – Road ERA: 2.5 – Avg. ML: -140) vs. M. Stroman (ERA: 2.43 – Home ERA: 2.04 – Avg. ML: -119)
Pick: Lean SD
CWS (-167) at DET (153)
Pitchers: D. Cease (ERA: 3.5 – Road ERA: 6.67 – Avg. ML: -104) vs. J. Urena (ERA: 4.37 – Home ERA: 5.44 – Avg. ML: 149)
Pick: Lean CWS
TOR (112) at BOS (-121)
Pitchers: S. Matz (ERA: 4.6 – Road ERA: 3.76 – Avg. ML: -108) vs. N. Pivetta (ERA: 3.83 – Home ERA: 3.81 – Avg. ML: 101)
Pick: Lean TOR
SEA () at CLE ()
Pitchers: Y. Kikuchi (ERA: 3.98 – Road ERA: 3.51 – Avg. ML: 114) vs. T. McKenzie (ERA: 6.1 – Home ERA: 8.74 – Avg. ML: 116)
Pick: TBD
BAL (187) at TB (-206)
Pitchers: J. Lopez (ERA: 5.44 – Road ERA: 4.43 – Avg. ML: 147) vs. R. Hill (ERA: 3.08 – Home ERA: 3.24 – Avg. ML: -108)
Pick: Lean BAL
LAA () at ARI ()
Pitchers: A. Cobb (ERA: 4.34 – Road ERA: 5.49 – Avg. ML: -101) vs. C. Smith (ERA: 4.15 – Home ERA: 3.6 – Avg. ML: 153)
Pick: TBD
STL (155) at CHC (-168)
Pitchers: J. Gant (ERA: 2.66 – Road ERA: 0.9 – Avg. ML: 117) vs. K. Hendricks (ERA: 4.67 – Home ERA: 4.86 – Avg. ML: -115)
Pick: Lean CHC
SF () at WSH ()
Pitchers: J. Cueto (ERA: 3.85 – Road ERA: 4.66 – Avg. ML: -103) vs. J. Ross (ERA: 4.47 – Home ERA: 5.93 – Avg. ML: 124)
Pick: TBD
HOU (-106) at MIN (-102)
Pitchers: L. Garcia (ERA: 2.79 – Road ERA: 3.83 – Avg. ML: -111) vs. J. Berrios (ERA: 3.67 – Home ERA: 4.91 – Avg. ML: -141)
Pick: Lean MIN
TEX (254) at LAD (-287)
Pitchers: K. Allard (ERA: 4 – Road ERA: 4.5 – Avg. ML: 120) vs. T. Bauer (ERA: 2.45 – Home ERA: 1.72 – Avg. ML: -177)
Pick: Lean TEX
