Degen Show (6/13/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 6/13/22
BOS (4) at GSW (-4)
Pick: Lean BOS
Total: 212 (Lean Under – 209)
Predicted Score: BOS 104 – GSW 105
Notes: Boston took one in San Francisco and that’s all they needed to win the series.
That one win gave them homecourt advantage.
So all they had to do was win their home games and that’d be the series.
The only problem is that Boston sucks at home in this postseason.
They are 6-5 and seem to be too comfortable in front of their home crowd.
Which usually leads to some sloppy play.
I mentioned on the show that the key to live betting the Celtics is to see how many turnovers they have.
I saw this on ESPN yesterday to confirm that when Boston has under 15 turnovers, they are 14-2 in the playoffs.
When they have 16 or more, they are 0-6.
For Golden State, maybe Steph Curry will be enough for them to win this series but damn does he need a little more consistent help out there.
I get it that he’s in Jordan mode right now and cannot miss a single shot but even Jordan couldn’t win a title on his own.
If the Warriors are to win, it can’t just be Curry.
Now granted, if they continue to succeed at that pick and roll for 3, then well, maybe it can be just him.
I have Golden State winning by a point in this one.
That said, these games have not been close so my guess is a double-digit difference in this one.
I’m still going to lean Boston.
This is a team that has yet to lose back-to-back games in the playoffs and have done so only twice since January 8th.
MIA (120) at PHI (-142)
Pick: Bet $10 MIA
Notes: The Phillies final lost a game.
Maybe it’ll be two in a row?
Miami is playing some good baseball right now.
So again, as a Mets fan, seeing them return home after a .500 West Coast road trip and seeing Atlanta, Philly and Miami all playing well, you know how I’m feeling there.
The Marlins have won 4 of 5 – dropping the last game in their series with the Astros yesterday.
They put one of their multiple Cy Young candidates on the mound today as Sandy Alcantara with his 6-2 record, 1.61 ERA and 0.94 WHIP takes on Philly’s Ace – Aaron Nola.
Nola is having a good season himself.
Nowhere near Alcantara, but from a control standpoint, much better.
Nola only has given up 10 walks while dealing 85 Ks.
Where he gets in trouble is the longball – which is bad news for him since Miami is tied for the 11th most team homeruns on the road this season.
I like the Fish here with the plus line, a dominating starting pitcher and some pop to their offense on the road.
$10 bet on Miami.
PIT (160) at STL (-190)
Pick: Bet $10 PIT
Notes: All hail the first place Cardinals.
It doesn’t feel like much of a victory for them after losing 3 of their last 5 including a loss to the lowly Reds yesterday.
But at least they are doing much better than the Pirates who lave lost 6 in a row after a 4-game sweep at the hands of the Braves.
Pittsburgh will put Mitch Keller on the mound today.
He’s having a shitty season and got demoted to the bullpen for a bit.
But he’s put together some solid outings his last few games and looks to have worked out some of the early season rust.
The Cards will put top prospect Zach Thompson on the mound.
As if this league didn’t need another Zach.
For fucks sake, so many women in their 40s must have been obsessed with Save by the Bell or something.
Thompson got some bullpen action against the Cubs.
In his 4 innings, he averaged 94.8 miles per hour on his fastball and 74.7 on his nasty curveball.
But since he’s such a gem to this team, I expect a pitch count today meaning some value on the Pirates to possibly steal one today against the Cardinals’ bullpen.
$10 bet on Pittsburgh.
HOU (-166) at TEX (140)
Pick: Bet $10 HOU
Notes: These teams kick off yet another series today – with Houston having a 6-2 edge so far this season in their matchups.
The Astros will put Cristian Javier on the mound today as he looks to bounce back from a disaster of a previous start.
Trust me, I know.
If you download and listen to every episode, at least from last week, you would hear me touting Javier and burying the Mariners.
But I like him here today especially with the Rangers putting a hittable Taylor Hearn on the mound.
Hearn has been decent over his last few starts but he puts a lot of runners on base which is always a recipe for disaster.
The Rangers just won a pair of extra innings games over the White Sox – prompting fans to get on board the fire La Russa train with me.
I just don’t see them winning 3 in a row.
$10 bet on the Astros.
ATL (-164) at WSH (138)
Pick: Lean WSH
BAL (245) at TOR (-300)
Pick: Lean TOR
CWS (-138) at DET (118)
Pick: Lean CWS
SD (-132) at CHC (112)
Pick: Lean SD
CIN (138) at ARI (-164)
Pick: Lean ARI
KC (146) at SF (-174)
Pick: Lean SF
MIN (102) at SEA (-120)
Pick: Lean SEA