Degen Show Part (6/14/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 6/14/21
PHI (-3.5) at ATL (3.5)
Pick: Bet $10 PHI ML (-146)
Total: 225.5 (Lean Over – 234)
Predicted Score: PHI 121 – ATL 113
Notes: Joel Embiid has shown minimal signs of a meniscus tear and the 76ers have taken control of this series. They could drop the death blow on the Hawks today with another road win.
Philly’s defense has been too much for Atlanta the past couple of games. Even worse for Atlanta, is that Philly, unlike New York, has the offensive weapons to take advantage of a fairly shitty Hawks’ defense. And a big part of that is Trae Young – who has not been known for his defensive skills.
Meth Curry has had trouble with Ben Simmons this series. Simmons’ height and length has disrupted Young both offensively and defensively. Clint Capela has not been able to stop Embiid. And have I mentioned he has a fucking torn meniscus?
$10 moneyline bet on the Sixers.
UTA (5) at LAC (-5)
Pick: Lean LAC
Total: 223.5 (Lean Over – 229)
Predicted Score: UTA 111 – LAC 118
Notes: The Clippers showed up in game 3 and have made it a series. Now we have to wonder if Panther’s baccarat strategy will come into play with the Jazz here today.
The Jazz looked a bit run down in the last game. Mitchell’s Herculean efforts lately have come at an expense and there’s no Mike Conley to help him out. Conley could return today – so that’s something to look out for.
Going into the playoffs, these were my 2 favorite teams in the West to make it to the Finals. And I’m glad Kawhi and the Clippers didn’t just roll over and die like the Nuggets did. But I still get the sense that Utah is the hungrier team and will manage to win this series.
For this game, my metrics say to bet the Clippers. I just can’t quite trust them. A lean on L.A.
Montreal Canadiens (224) at Vegas Golden Knights (-257)
Pick: Bet $20 Montreal
Notes: Montreal – the team of destiny – starts their final 4 matchup against the Golden Knights today and find themselves as huge underdogs to start off.
Vegas flipped a switch against the Avalanche in game 2 of their series. If that switch stays on, they aren’t losing. But Montreal has a chance to frustrate the Knights the same way the Wild did in their 7-game series.
Montreal’s defense has been stellar and in their sweep of the Jets, Carey Price looked years younger. On offense, Tyler Toffoli has led the way but they have also gotten production from players on all of their lines – including Eric Staal on their 4th line.
For Vegas, they have also ridden the strength of a great goalie. But at 36 years old, can Marc Andre Fleury have enough in the tank to be otherworldly much longer?
Which makes them an enticing play. When I ran the numbers, I was surprised at how close I had this game at. Vegas should win – but with the implied probability and this payout, it’s hard to resist the Canadiens.
$20 bet on Montreal.
TOR (116) at BOS (-126)
Pitchers: A. Manoah (ERA: 3.19 – Road ERA: 0.82 – Avg. ML: -101) vs. N. Eovaldi (ERA: 4.07 – Home ERA: 4.81 – Avg. ML: -120)
Pick: Bet $10 BOS
Notes: Toronto is still hitting homeruns off Boston and now they put their coveted rookie on the mound. Manoah has impressed so far in his starts and faces off against a Boston team that has been hit or miss – pun intended – lately with their offense.
Travel day for both teams so no advantage there. I know the value is with Toronto but I have Boston winning this one in a bounceback game after embarrassment.
$10 bet on the Red Sox.
DET (122) at KC (-132)
Pitchers: M. Boyd (ERA: 3.64 – Road ERA: 5.74 – Avg. ML: 137) vs. B. Keller (ERA: 5.96 – Home ERA: 7.63 – Avg. ML: 124)
Pick: Bet $10 DET
Notes: The Royals have lost 3 in a row and 4 of 5. The only game they won? Is a game I bet against them. So if that’s a sign of things to come, congrats Acrh, the Royals should win today.
The Tigers are not very good on the road – posting an 11-20 road record. They too have lost 3 in a row and 4 of 5. Matt Boyd has had a decent year but his numbers balloon on the road. Still, I see value in betting them today.
$10 bet on the Tigers.
SD (-161) at COL (147)
Pitchers: D. Lamet (ERA: 4.5 – Road ERA: 4 – Avg. ML: -145) vs. A. Gomber (ERA: 4.01 – Home ERA: 1.34 – Avg. ML: 149)
Pick: Bet $10 COL
Notes: Let’s hope that Panther’s love for Gomber continues past today. If you haven’t seen his road/home splits, check them out. Surprisingly, his ERA is a stellar 1.34 at Coors field. Insane.
The Padres avoided a sweep at the hands of the Mets and now travel back West with Dinelson Lamet on the bump. This, to me, is the most winnable game in the series for the Rockies who shockingly are 20-14 at home.
$10 bet on Colorado.
PIT (102) at WSH (-110)
Pitchers: T. Anderson (ERA: 4.6 – Road ERA: 5.55 – Avg. ML: 138) vs. J. Lester (ERA: 4.98 – Home ERA: 5.21 – Avg. ML: 120)
Pick: Lean PIT
CHC (-110) at NYM (-110)
Pitchers: J. Arrieta (ERA: 5.03 – Road ERA: 6.45 – Avg. ML: 107) vs. D. Peterson (ERA: 6.61 – Home ERA: 4.22 – Avg. ML: -101)
Pick: Lean NYM
BAL () at CLE ()
Pitchers: D. Kremer (ERA: 7 – Road ERA: 5.23 – Avg. ML: 150) vs. J. Mejia (ERA: 11.25 – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 102)
CIN (140) at MIL (-152)
Pitchers: V. Gutierrez (ERA: 2.65 – Road ERA: 2.7 – Avg. ML: 116) vs. E. Lauer (ERA: 4.74 – Home ERA: 5.54 – Avg. ML: 140)
Pick: Lean MIL
TB (-109) at CWS (101)
Pitchers: T. Glasnow (ERA: 2.62 – Road ERA: 3.65 – Avg. ML: -146) vs. L. Lynn (ERA: 1.38 – Home ERA: 1.44 – Avg. ML: -142)
Pick: Lean TB
MIA (138) at STL (-160)
Pitchers: Braxton Garrett (n/a) vs. A. Wainwright (ERA: 4.1 – Home ERA: 2.65 – Avg. ML: -105)
Pick: Lean MIA
LAA (148) at OAK (-161)
Pitchers: D. Bundy (ERA: 6.31 – Road ERA: 5.43 – Avg. ML: -105) vs. S. Manaea (ERA: 3.14 – Home ERA: 3.03 – Avg. ML: -116)
Pick: Lean OAK
ARI (168) at SF (-200)
Pitchers: J. Duplantier (ERA: 16.67 – Road ERA: 11.57 – Avg. ML: 142) vs. A. Wood (ERA: 3.94 – Home ERA: 4.27 – Avg. ML: -110)
Pick: Lean SF
PHI (156) at LAD (-171)
Pitchers: S. Howard (ERA: 2.97 – Road ERA: 2.25 – Avg. ML: 113) vs. T. Gonsolin (ERA: 7.5 – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: -165)
Pick: Lean PHI
MIN (-122) at SEA (113)
Pitchers: K. Maeda (ERA: 4.93 – Road ERA: 5.51 – Avg. ML: -113) vs. M. Gonzales (ERA: 7.07 – Home ERA: 5.4 – Avg. ML: 127)
Pick: Lean SEA