Degen Show Part (6/18/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 6/18/21
PHI (-3) at ATL (3)
Pick: Lean PHI
Total: 221 (Bet $10 Over – 223)
Predicted Score: PHI 114 – ATL 109
Notes: Meniscus tears suck. I can tell you from experience. The first day is brutal. And then a few days later you feel like its getting better and then when you least expect it, the back of your knee tightens up so much that you can’t help but hobble.
That’s Joel Embiid’s reality right now and its reared its ugly head in consecutive games. The training staff have done wonders – but a giant like Joel will feel that small tear more as a game goes on. And it will impact a lot of what he does.
So does Philly lose 3 in a row and get bounced from the playoffs? Or can they force a game 7? Truth be told, when we record our show tomorrow morning, I am prepared for either scenario. If Ben Simmons can hit a fucking shot or improve his free throw shooting to Shaq-level percentage, the Sixers have a chance. If the Sixers remember that Trae Young can hit pretty much every open 3 you give him and they stop him from doing so, maybe they have a chance. If Joel Embiid can play a full 4 quarters, maybe they have a chance.
I just don’t see all of that happening.
A lean on Philly. But I do think this game goes over. So a $10 bet on the over.
UTA (-1.5) at LAC (1.5)
Pick: Bet $10 LAC ML (112)
Total: 219.5 (Lean Over – 229)
Predicted Score: UTA 108 – LAC 121
Notes: Kawhi Leonard is done. Long live PG-13? Paul George had his best playoff game ever and the Clippers went into Utah to take the series lead and put the Jazz on the brink of elimination. Now LA looks to close out the series today. Impossible without Kawhi, right? Eh…
The Jazz go as Donovan Mitchell goes. And right now, he’s not going too well. His ankle injury has been bothering him more and now he’s questionable for tonight. As is Mike Conley – who I believe is critical to the Jazz winning the title.
Utah is still a damn good team and did quite well when Mitchell missed time this year. And they are lucky to not have to play Leonard for the rest of the series. My issue here is that LA can find scoring if needed. If George steps up as the floor commander in Kawhi’s absence, this series is over.
PG-13 – you better not fuck up.
$10 moneyline bet on the Clippers.
Vegas Golden Knights (-158) at Montreal Canadiens (142)
Pick: Lean Vegas
Notes: After game 1, I thought this series was over. Montreal had the better stats – expected goals for and high danger shots – and got blown out. Maybe I read the tea leaves wrong. Because those quality shots fell in game 2 and they did the impossible by winning a game in Vegas.
But that game was still a weird one to me. Montreal went out to a 3-0 lead and Vegas clawed their way back and almost tied it. Carey Price has not looked superhuman – like in previous series – and the Knights defense looked lazy out there whenever Tyler Toffoli had the puck – as if entranced by his curly golden locks of hair.
As this series shifts to Montreal, the Canadiens can expect about 3,500 fans in the stands rooting them on. That won’t get the same feel as playing in a sold-out Vegas arena, but should be pretty raucous nonetheless.
I just expect the real Vegas team to show up today. Based on my metrics, Vegas wins today but there is no value betting either side. I need Vegas down to -145 or Montreal up to +150 to trigger a bet for me.
So a lean on the Golden Knights.
CWS (-111) at HOU (103)
Pitchers: C. Rodon (ERA: 1.7 – Road ERA: 1.4 – Avg. ML: -142) vs. L. Garcia (ERA: 3.07 – Home ERA: 1.92 – Avg. ML: -112)
Pick: Bet $10 CWS
Notes: I hit on Houston yesterday and now its time for me to switch and take the White Sox today. Garcia has been amazing at home – with a 1.92 ERA – but Rodon has been sensational in general. So this should be a hell of a pitching matchup today. But I think Chicago edges out the win. $10 bet on Chicago.
PHI (120) at SF (-130)
Pitchers: V. Velasquez (ERA: 4.03 – Road ERA: 4.27 – Avg. ML: 106) vs. J. Cueto (ERA: 4.16 – Home ERA: 3.27 – Avg. ML: -103)
Pick: Bet $10 SF
Notes: The Phillies are 12-21 on the road and heading to San Francisco to play a Giants team that is 22-9 at home. The Phillies did manage to get a win in the series finale over L.A. two days ago but the Giants offense is clicking right now while the Dodgers seem to be struggling a bit. San Francisco won’t relent and Velasquez on the road has not been reliable this year. $10 bet on the Giants.
TB (-114) at SEA (105)
Pitchers: M. Wacha (ERA: 3.28 – Road ERA: 3.53 – Avg. ML: -102) vs. Y. Kikuchi (ERA: 3.6 – Home ERA: 4.47 – Avg. ML: 111)
Pick: Bet $10 TB
Notes: Well, I missed on Tampa yesterday so time to chase some waterfalls. Michael Wacha Wacha has been better than expected. But Kikuchi has not been as dreadful as previous seasons so the match-up is pretty even. Seattle is 20-15 at home this season so much like the Rockies, there is some value looking at them when they are at home. I just like the Rays on the road and to avoid losing 2 straight against the Mariners. A $10 bet on Tampa.
NYM (106) at WSH (-114)
Pitchers: J. Lucchesi (ERA: 5.49 – Road ERA: 7.13 – Avg. ML: 105) vs. E. Fedde (ERA: 3.94 – Home ERA: 5.94 – Avg. ML: 140)
Pick: Lean WSH
OAK (108) at NYY (-118)
Pitchers: J. Kaprielian (ERA: 2.58 – Road ERA: 4.4 – Avg. ML: -121) vs. J. Taillon (ERA: 6.15 – Home ERA: 3.17 – Avg. ML: -131)
Pick: Lean OAK
TOR (-160) at BAL (136)
Pitchers: R. Ray (ERA: 3.26 – Road ERA: 3.89 – Avg. ML: 106) vs. B. Zimmermann (ERA: 5.38 – Home ERA: 4.81 – Avg. ML: 144)
Pick: Lean TOR
CLE (-135) at PIT (125)
Pitchers: J. Mejia (ERA: 7.5 – Road ERA: 11.25 – Avg. ML: -121) vs. C. Kuhl (ERA: 6.68 – Home ERA: 4.89 – Avg. ML: 175)
Pick: Lean PIT
STL (150) at ATL (-163)
Pitchers: C. Martinez (ERA: 5.6 – Road ERA: 5.81 – Avg. ML: 111) vs. M. Fried (ERA: 4.84 – Home ERA: 4.47 – Avg. ML: -128)
Pick: Lean STL
MIA (125) at CHC (-149)
Pitchers: P. Lopez (ERA: 3.47 – Road ERA: 5.17 – Avg. ML: -101) vs. Z. Davies (ERA: 4.15 – Home ERA: 2.97 – Avg. ML: 108)
Pick: Lean CHC
MIN (-164) at TEX (150)
Pitchers: J. Berrios (ERA: 3.57 – Road ERA: 2.84 – Avg. ML: -135) vs. M. Foltynewicz (ERA: 5.65 – Home ERA: 4.55 – Avg. ML: 144)
Pick: Lean TEX
BOS () at KC ()
Pitchers: N. Pivetta (ERA: 4.34 – Road ERA: 3.86 – Avg. ML: 101) vs. J. Kowar (ERA: 55.38 – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 127)
MIL (-187) at COL (171)
Pitchers: C. Burnes (ERA: 2.14 – Road ERA: 1 – Avg. ML: -143) vs. A. Senzatela (ERA: 4.98 – Home ERA: 3.89 – Avg. ML: 153)
Pick: Lean MIL
DET (177) at LAA (-194)
Pitchers: J. Urena (ERA: 5.35 – Road ERA: 3.73 – Avg. ML: 152) vs. A. Cobb (ERA: 5.09 – Home ERA: 3.52 – Avg. ML: -104)
Pick: Lean DET
LAD (-240) at ARI (200)
Pitchers: T. Bauer (ERA: 2.7 – Road ERA: 2.81 – Avg. ML: -181) vs. C. Smith (ERA: 5.26 – Home ERA: 5.93 – Avg. ML: 155)
Pick: Lean ARI
CIN (184) at SD (-203)
Pitchers: T. Santillan (ERA: 2.14 – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: -151) vs. C. Paddack (ERA: 3.56 – Home ERA: 2.88 – Avg. ML: -148)
Pick: Lean CIN