Degen Show Part (6/23/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 6/23/21
ATL (7.5) at MIL (-7.5)
Pick: Bet $10 ATL
Total: 226 (Bet $10 Under – 203)
Predicted Score: ATL 100 – MIL 103
Notes: Mike Budenholzer was a game away from losing his job. But beating the Nets has earned him a stay of execution. Now he’ll play against his former team and hope he can give Giannis a chance at his first title.
The Hawks will not be an easy out. They continue to get better as these playoffs go on and Trae Young will be a tough task for Jrue Holiday. And it’s not just his 3-pointers. The dude scores with these crazy-ass floaters that forces defenses to guard a lot more space than teams that are not effective from midrange.
The Bucks struggle with defending the 3 so if Atlanta us hitting those, this will be a close game. And I expect the Hawks to come out firing. I am going to fade my moneyline strategy for just one day and bet $10 on the Hawks with the points and also another $10 on the under.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-147) at New York Islanders (132)
Pick: Bet $20 New York
Notes: After being shellacked 8-0 in their last game, the New York Islanders will come back home to stave off elimination against a team that I have fully supported all season as the best team in hockey. I don’t think I have ever said a disparaging word about the Tampa Bay Lightning all season. Such a great team.
Joking aside, they Lightning have shown up in this series but it’s not the first time Barry Trotz has been down 3-2 in a series against the Lightning. When Trotz led the Capitals to a Cup in 2018, he beat the Lightning in two straight games to make the finals.
Tampa’s defense had been leading the way but their offense was super aggressive in game 5. That type of adaptability has been the difference for this team in the playoffs. After a loss like that, it’s easy to jump on Tampa and call this series over.
I’m not ready to do that. Maybe they will lose them all but I still like the Islanders at home with this plus line to push it to 7. $20 bet on New York.
CWS (-164) at PIT (150)
Pitchers: D. Cease (ERA: 4.15 – Road ERA: 7.27 – Avg. ML: -110) vs. C. De Jong (ERA: 4.26 – Home ERA: 5.4 – Avg. ML: 150)
Pick: Bet $10 CWS
Notes: Back to chasing waterfalls and hoping it doesn’t bite me. Chicago has not been playing well as of late and should get back on track. The Pirates have been a little surprising the past week but they will come back down to their norm. Cease has not been reliable on the road this year and it is chalky. Yet I am going to do it. $10 bet on the White Sox.
COL (-109) at SEA (101)
Pitchers: G. Marquez (ERA: 4.07 – Road ERA: 5.27 – Avg. ML: 115) vs. J. Sheffield (ERA: 5.62 – Home ERA: 5.03 – Avg. ML: 130)
Pick: Bet $10 SEA
Notes: I didn’t do it yesterday but I am today. Seattle at home has been a good pick and Colorado on the road has been a good pick to bet against. Sheffield is on the mound and probably why the line is the way it is. He’s coming off back-to-back bad starts but was able to string together a few decent ones before that. Could be an ugly one but worth the risk. $10 bet on Seattle.
OAK (-160) at TEX (147)
Pitchers: J. Kaprielian (ERA: 2.95 – Road ERA: 4.58 – Avg. ML: -120) vs. M. Foltynewicz (ERA: 5.76 – Home ERA: 4.82 – Avg. ML: 145)
Pick: Bet $10 OAK
Notes: James Kaprielian had a solid start against the team that drafted him and hopes to continue his good start to a season against a Texas team that is 16-20 at home and has lost 4 of 5. That lone win was the series opener on Monday and that should be the only win they get this series. $10 bet on Oakland.
WSH (-101) at PHI (-107)
Pitchers: E. Fedde (ERA: 3.39 – Road ERA: 2.03 – Avg. ML: 138) vs. V. Velasquez (ERA: 4.27 – Home ERA: 3.6 – Avg. ML: 106)
Pick: Lean WSH
STL (-122) at DET (112)
Pitchers: J. Gant (ERA: 3.57 – Road ERA: 2.73 – Avg. ML: 119) vs. M. Manning (ERA: 3.6 – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 198)
Pick: Lean DET
MIL (-184) at ARI (168)
Pitchers: B. Woodruff (ERA: 1.97 – Road ERA: 1.62 – Avg. ML: -116) vs. C. Smith (ERA: 3.9 – Home ERA: 3.58 – Avg. ML: 171)
Pick: Lean MIL
SF (-108) at LAA (-100)
Pitchers: K. Gausman (ERA: 1.51 – Road ERA: 1 – Avg. ML: -109) vs. S. Ohtani (ERA: 2.75 – Home ERA: 1.84 – Avg. ML: -118)
Pick: Lean LAA
HOU (-187) at BAL (173)
Pitchers: J. Urquidy (ERA: 3.73 – Road ERA: 4.72 – Avg. ML: -124) vs. T. Eshelman (n/a)
Pick: Lean HOU
KC (145) at NYY (-175)
Pitchers: D. Duffy (ERA: 1.97 – Road ERA: 1.88 – Avg. ML: -105) vs. M. King (ERA: 6.83 – Home ERA: 7.06 – Avg. ML: -124)
Pick: Lean NYY
ATL () at NYM ()
Pitchers: K. Wright (ERA: 4.39 – Road ERA: 4.39 – Avg. ML: -130) vs. D. Peterson (ERA: 5.55 – Home ERA: 3.21 – Avg. ML: -101)
BOS (128) at TB (-139)
Pitchers: G. Richards (ERA: 4.46 – Road ERA: 3.41 – Avg. ML: -101) vs. R. Hill (ERA: 3.7 – Home ERA: 3.84 – Avg. ML: -115)
Pick: Lean BOS
TOR (-120) at MIA (104)
Pitchers: R. Ray (ERA: 3.33 – Road ERA: 3.94 – Avg. ML: 103) vs. T. Rogers (ERA: 2 – Home ERA: 1.93 – Avg. ML: 102)
Pick: Lean MIA
LAD (104) at SD (-112)
Pitchers: T. Bauer (ERA: 2.49 – Road ERA: 2.49 – Avg. ML: -185) vs. J. Musgrove (ERA: 2.58 – Home ERA: 2.36 – Avg. ML: -141)
Pick: Lean SD