Degen Show Part (6/26/21)

Your favorite Degens give you their Sports Bet Picks for 6/26/21. Listen to the Degen’s NBA win totals episode, their MLB futures episode and Max’s NHL Power rankings post.

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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 6/26/21

NBA

PHX (-1) at LAC (1)

Pick: Bet $10 LAC ML (+103)

Total: 218.5 (Lean Under – 223)

Predicted Score: PHX 108 – LAC 115

Notes: When the Suns added Chris Paul back to the mix, I figured this series was over. Well, the Clippers had other things in mind. Paul George has stepped up and the supporting cast has been pretty remarkable filling in since Kawhi went down with his mysterious knee injury.

And the Suns are a little lucky to be up 2-1 in this series. Both games in Phoenix were close games and their team effective FG% is on a downward trend. The Clippers’ shooting remains hot and their ability to hit 3’s has been pretty remarkable. The Suns will also need Devin Booker to play a bigger role than he did the last game. Maybe there was some kind of adjustment with Paul being inserted back into the mix.

When I ran my numbers, I was surprised to see the Clippers winning this one. And my gut says they don’t. But I’m going to bet them anyway.

$10 ML bet on the Clippers.

 

NHL

Tampa won… I am 4 Lightning wins away from eating a ton of crow. Back at it on Monday.

 

MLB

PIT (132) at STL (-143)

Pitchers: J. Brubaker (ERA: 3.87 – Road ERA: 4.83 – Avg. ML: 123) vs. A. Wainwright (ERA: 3.79 – Home ERA: 2.69 – Avg. ML: -107)

Pick: Bet $10 PIT

Notes: Maybe yesterday was the day to jump on the Pirates but looking at this plus line and looking how bad the Cardinals are playing, perhaps there’s some value with jumping on them again today. The Cardinals have lost 18 of their last 24 games. That sounds like something you might say about Pittsburgh. Jacob Stallings and Phillip Evans drove in 2 runs each in the Pirates’ 5-4 win yesterday and the Pirates’ hitting has been more consistent lately than St. Louis’ has been.

The Cardinals seem to live and die by the homer. And in their 5-game losing streak, those homers are not coming.

So $10 value bet on the Pirates today.

 

CHC (174) at LAD (-191)

Pitchers: A. Mills (ERA: 3.44 – Road ERA: 5.56 – Avg. ML: -101) vs. J. Urias (ERA: 4.05 – Home ERA: 4.55 – Avg. ML: -170)

Pick: Bet $10 LAD

Notes: The Dodgers broke their losing streak with a win yesterday and they have a chance to start their own winning streak with Alec Mills on the mound for the Cubs. Chicago is just 16-21 on the road this season and the Dodgers are markedly better at home. Max Muncy has struggled a bit lately but added a homerun to his stats last night and maybe he can get going against a hittable Mills today.

It’s chalky but I have LA winning this one decisively. So a $10 bet on the Bubble Champs.

 

OAK (111) at SF (-121)

Pitchers: F. Montas (ERA: 4.9 – Road ERA: 5.11 – Avg. ML: -110) vs. A. Wood (ERA: 4.25 – Home ERA: 4.75 – Avg. ML: -112)

Pick: Bet $10 SF

Notes: Maybe Panther will get his wood on today. The Giants got the win yesterday and have now won 4 in a row. San Francisco improved their home record to 25-10 on the season. The A’s happen to be one of the better road teams this season but Montas is on the mound today and he’s struggled on the road so far.

The Giants are 9-1 over their last 10 and batting over .300 as a team in that span. Their run differential is +34 in that span. The A’s have played decently lately but are not putting up the runs needed to hang with teams like the Giants.

Which is still a bizarre fucking statement to say.

But I am getting used to it. $10 bet on the Giants.

 

Leans

HOU () at DET ()

Pitchers: F. Valdez (ERA: 1.68 – Road ERA: 1.28 – Avg. ML: -126) vs. C. Mize (ERA: 3.68 – Home ERA: 4.64 – Avg. ML: 143)

Pick: TBD

 

CLE (136) at MIN (-147)

Pitchers: S. Hentges (ERA: 6.55 – Road ERA: 6.92 – Avg. ML: 116) vs. K. Maeda (ERA: 4.61 – Home ERA: 3.41 – Avg. ML: -116)

Pick: Lean MIN

 

SEA (176) at CWS (-193)

Pitchers: L. Gilbert (ERA: 4.69 – Road ERA: 2.37 – Avg. ML: 136) vs. L. Lynn (ERA: 2.15 – Home ERA: 1.77 – Avg. ML: -130)

Pick: Lean CWS

 

BAL (238) at TOR (-266)

Pitchers: K. Akin (ERA: 6.83 – Road ERA: 8.06 – Avg. ML: 148) vs. H. Ryu (ERA: 3.32 – Home ERA: 3.24 – Avg. ML: -123)

Pick: Lean TOR

 

KC () at TEX ()

Pitchers: K. Zimmer (ERA: 0 – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 139) vs. K. Gibson (ERA: 2.19 – Home ERA: 1.28 – Avg. ML: 134)

Pick: TBD

 

COL (177) at MIL (-194)

Pitchers: A. Senzatela (ERA: 4.94 – Road ERA: 7.23 – Avg. ML: 155) vs. A. Houser (ERA: 4.23 – Home ERA: 3.93 – Avg. ML: -105)

Pick: Lean MIL

 

WSH (-112) at MIA (103)

Pitchers: P. Corbin (ERA: 5.48 – Road ERA: 7.09 – Avg. ML: 106) vs. Z. Thompson (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 139)

Pick: Lean WSH

 

ATL () at CIN ()

Pitchers: I. Anderson (ERA: 3.38 – Road ERA: 2.41 – Avg. ML: -125) vs. L. Castillo (ERA: 5.91 – Home ERA: 6.02 – Avg. ML: -107)

Pick: TBD

 

PHI (224) at NYM (-250)

Pitchers: Z. Eflin (ERA: 4.47 – Road ERA: 6.46 – Avg. ML: 102) vs. J. deGrom (ERA: 0.5 – Home ERA: 0.77 – Avg. ML: -181)

Pick: Lean NYM

 

LAA (144) at TB (-157)

Pitchers: A. Cobb (ERA: 4.54 – Road ERA: 6.96 – Avg. ML: -108) vs. S. McClanahan (ERA: 4.07 – Home ERA: 4.74 – Avg. ML: -116)

Pick: Lean TB

 

HOU (-215) at DET (195)

Pitchers: L. McCullers Jr. (ERA: 2.94 – Road ERA: 2.74 – Avg. ML: -128) vs. W. Peralta (ERA: 9 – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 179)

Pick: Lean HOU

 

NYY (-101) at BOS (-107)

Pitchers: J. Montgomery (ERA: 4.33 – Road ERA: 5.91 – Avg. ML: -132) vs. N. Eovaldi (ERA: 3.89 – Home ERA: 4.27 – Avg. ML: -123)

Pick: Lean NYY

 

ARI (237) at SD (-265)

Pitchers: M. Kelly (ERA: 5.16 – Road ERA: 6.61 – Avg. ML: 139) vs. D. Lamet (ERA: 3.24 – Home ERA: 3 – Avg. ML: -146)

Pick: Lean SD