Degen Show Part (6/4/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 6/4/21
LAC (-2.5) at DAL (2.5)
Pick: Bet $15 ML LAC (-141)
Total: 216.5 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: LAC 111 – DAL 101
Notes: The Clippers find themselves on the brink of elimination as they head to Dallas today for a crucial game 6. If the Clippers lose, then Kawhi will ponder his future as destinations like Miami and New York could present an easier path to the finals since the lower seeds in the West tend to be really fucking good and the lower seeds in the East tend to be below .500 teams.
Luka dominated in game 5 with 42 points, 8 rebounds and 14 assists. Kawhi shot 1-7 from 3-point land – including a laughable airball that had Rajon Rondo tearing him apart right after.
The question for today is if Kawhi and PG actually care. If they do, they win today and force a game 7. If not, maybe we end up with a joke of a game like we saw from the other LA team last night.
$15 ML bet on the Clippers.
Montreal Canadiens (104) at Winnipeg Jets (-114)
Pick: Bet Montreal
Notes: The Canadiens took game 1 and now we have to start wondering… are the tabernacling Canadiens actually for real? A problem with Montreal this season was not their inability to create good offensive opportunities. But actually finishing on them? Different story.
Montreal was 10th in expected goals per game but 25th in PDO. PDO is the luck factor I have been hammering on about all season and over the course of time, each team should average out to 100. Winnipeg was 9th in PDO at 101.0. Toronto was 2nd with a 101.7.
Maybe Montreal is starting to balance out and their opponents are regressing. Because the high danger shots are falling for the Canadiens now and they have the goalies to lock things down for them when needed.
Hard for me to bet against Montreal right now. So yeah, $20 bet on the Canadiens.
Colorado Avalanche (-115) at Vegas Golden Knights (104)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Notes: The Avalanche are up 2-0 in this series but game 2 was much closer as the change back to Fleury in goal made a huge difference. It took OT for Colorado to win and I think we are in for a tighter series from here on out.
The Vegas crowd will be at 100% capacity – making this a tough environment for the Avalanche to deal with. The Golden Knights got better shots on goal in game 2 than Colorado did but the Avalanche are so damn good when playing 5-4 that goals will come if the Golden Knights slip up and end up in the penalty box.
I still think Colorado wins this series – but it won’t be a sweep. So maybe Vegas nabs today’s game. Or maybe the next one.
A lean on Colorado.
WSH (101) at PHI (-109)
Pitchers: M. Scherzer (ERA: 2.34 – Road ERA: 2.88 – Avg. ML: -124) vs. Z. Wheeler (ERA: 2.57 – Home ERA: 1.91 – Avg. ML: -112)
Pick: Bet $10 PHI
Notes: Near-elite Zach Wheeler takes on Max Scherzer’s crazy eyes as the Phillies head back home after a dreadful road trip. The Nationals managed to take 2 from the Braves on the beginning of their road trip but the Phillies are a pretty decent home team with a positive run differential there as opposed to their -25 run differential on the road this season.
Wheeler has posted a 1.91 home ERA and should be able to match whatever Scherzer does today. Cue the no hitter talk for tomorrow’s show.
$10 bet on Philly.
LAD (-120) at ATL (110)
Pitchers: J. Urias (ERA: 3.66 – Road ERA: 2.53 – Avg. ML: -185) vs. I. Anderson (ERA: 3.31 – Home ERA: 3.09 – Avg. ML: -134)
Pick: Bet $10 ATL
Notes: The Braves are 2 games under .500 on the season and only 15-16 at home this year. Julio Urias has a 2.53 road ERA and the Dodgers’ offense is markedly better than Atlanta’s. So why do I like the Braves today? The Dodgers just flew cross country yesterday and if there is a game that Atlanta has a chance to sneak out its this one. I have the Dodgers winning this one – slightly – so the plus line for the Braves at home gives me the value to bet them here.
TB (-134) at TEX (124)
Pitchers: J. Fleming (ERA: 2.41 – Road ERA: 2.67 – Avg. ML: 104) vs. K. Gibson (ERA: 2.25 – Home ERA: 0.69 – Avg. ML: 134)
Pick: Bet $10 TB
Notes: The Rangers have lost 9 in a row after their most recent sweep at the hands of the Rockies. Now they head home where they are 13-13. Which is not too bad considering the Rangers suck. One shining spot is Kyle Gibson who is having a great season and is posting a 0.69 ERA at home. Nice.
But the Rays are clicking. Even in their two losses to the Yankees they looked damn good.
$10 bet on the Rays.
MIA (-109) at PIT (101)
Pitchers: C. Poteet (ERA: 2.99 – Road ERA: 4.47 – Avg. ML: 108) vs. M. Keller (ERA: 6.72 – Home ERA: 8.11 – Avg. ML: 147)
Pick: Lean PIT
BOS (104) at NYY (-113)
Pitchers: N. Eovaldi (ERA: 3.93 – Road ERA: 2.8 – Avg. ML: -122) vs. M. King (ERA: 8.57 – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: -152)
Pick: Lean BOS
CLE (-110) at BAL (102)
Pitchers: J. Mejia (n/a) vs. K. Akin (ERA: 2.14 – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 210)
Pick: Lean BAL
HOU (112) at TOR (-121)
Pitchers: Z. Greinke (ERA: 3.69 – Road ERA: 1.64 – Avg. ML: -123) vs. H. Ryu (ERA: 2.61 – Home ERA: 0.93 – Avg. ML: -123)
Pick: Lean TOR
ARI (179) at MIL (-197)
Pitchers: M. Peacock (ERA: 3.99 – Road ERA: 1.76 – Avg. ML: 183) vs. F. Peralta (ERA: 2.49 – Home ERA: 1.5 – Avg. ML: -120)
Pick: Lean MIL
MIN (108) at KC (-117)
Pitchers: M. Shoemaker (ERA: 6.01 – Road ERA: 3.83 – Avg. ML: -122) vs. B. Keller (ERA: 5.9 – Home ERA: 8.71 – Avg. ML: 129)
Pick: Lean KC
DET (149) at CWS (-162)
Pitchers: S. Turnbull (ERA: 2.98 – Road ERA: 3.18 – Avg. ML: 130) vs. D. Keuchel (ERA: 4.26 – Home ERA: 5.29 – Avg. ML: -111)
Pick: Lean CWS
CIN (123) at STL (-133)
Pitchers: L. Castillo (ERA: 7.35 – Road ERA: 8.92 – Avg. ML: -114) vs. K. Kim (ERA: 3.79 – Home ERA: 1.9 – Avg. ML: 106)
Pick: Lean STL
OAK (-128) at COL (118)
Pitchers: F. Montas (ERA: 4.54 – Road ERA: 2.5 – Avg. ML: -102) vs. J. Gray (ERA: 3.98 – Home ERA: 2.44 – Avg. ML: 140)
Pick: Lean OAK
SEA () at LAA ()
Pitchers: R. Dugger (ERA: 7.38 – Road ERA: 14.52 – Avg. ML: 172) vs. S. Ohtani (ERA: 2.8 – Home ERA: 1.55 – Avg. ML: -108)
CHC () at SF ()
Pitchers: J. Arrieta (ERA: 4.47 – Road ERA: 5.74 – Avg. ML: -100) vs. L. Webb (ERA: 4 – Home ERA: 2 – Avg. ML: -103)
NYM (158) at SD (-173)
Pitchers: J. Lucchesi (ERA: 7.6 – Road ERA: 8.85 – Avg. ML: -110) vs. B. Snell (ERA: 5.81 – Home ERA: 2.14 – Avg. ML: -133)
Pick: Lean NYM