Degen Show Part (7/20/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 7/20/21
PHX (5) at MIL (-5)
Pick: Bet $50 MIL ML (-183)
Total: 222 (Lean Under – 215)
Predicted Score: PHX 105 – MIL 110
Notes: Maybe Chris Paul is cursed to never win a Championship. But at least he finally made it. It’s an accomplishment that he was able to push this young team this far. You have to wonder if they would be here if the Lakers had been healthy, of Kawhi hadn’t gotten injured, if the Jazz had a healthy Donovan Mitchell or if the Nuggets didn’t lose Jamaal Murray.
The same can be said about the Bucks who didn’t have to survive a fully loaded Nets team to get here. But Milwaukee was supposed to get to the Finals the past 2 years and couldn’t. So maybe taking the regular season easy and pissing off sports betters in the process (remember “Fuck the Bucks”) was the way to go.
But it looks like it all ends today. Milwaukee has owned the series. Even in a game 2 loss, they had the tempo and just needed to hit a few more shots. Those shots are dropping now and the only thing standing in the Bucks’ way is a Khris Middleton dud tonight.
I’m banking on him showing up at home tonight – where is numbers are much better – and helping Giannis win his first title. $50 bet on Milwaukee.
LAA (137) at OAK (-149)
Pitchers: J. Suarez (ERA: 3 – Road ERA: 2 – Avg. ML: 110) vs. J. Kaprielian (ERA: 2.97 – Home ERA: 1.38 – Avg. ML: -123)
Pick: Bet $10 OAK
Notes: James Kaprielian has seen the biggest drop in spin rate since the rules got tougher on foreign substances. It hasn’t stopped him from pitching well – but his ERA has been up a bit lately. The A’s took it to the Angels yesterday after Ohtani was out of the game. They might have to do the same today as Suarez has been pretty good on the road.
But the Angels themselves are not a very good road team. And the A’s have dominated the season series so far with Anaheim. So a $10 bet on Oakland.
MIA (-115) at WSH (106)
Pitchers: T. Rogers (ERA: 2.42 – Road ERA: 2.16 – Avg. ML: 108) vs. P. Espino (ERA: 3.36 – Home ERA: 2.47 – Avg. ML: 115)
Pick: Bet $10 WSH
Notes: I am banking on Washington still having some runs left in them today after putting up an 18 spot yesterday. It will be tougher with Rogers on the mound for Miami but I’m not sure if anyone can stop the hot-hitting Juan Soto right now. He started the season off slow but is killing the ball now. Miami’s pitching will keep them in it but lack of offense will continue to bite them.
$10 bet on Washington.
PHI (-120) at NYY (111)
Pitchers: A. Nola (ERA: 4.64 – Road ERA: 5.5 – Avg. ML: -133) vs. D. German (ERA: 4.69 – Home ERA: 5.18 – Avg. ML: -125)
Pick: Bet $10 PHI
Notes: As far as staff aces go, Aaron Nola has not been that for the Phillies this year. He’s given up 17 runs over his last 4 starts. He is still getting strike outs – which plays into the aggressive play of the Yankees. They are 13th in the league in batters striking out so maybe Nola has a chance. The problem is the Yankees are at home where the outfield is more than just friendly to their batters. But it works both ways and the Phillies should be able to keep up with runs.
$10 bet on Philadelphia.
BAL (176) at TB (-193)
Pitchers: J. Means (ERA: 2.33 – Road ERA: 1.38 – Avg. ML: 111) vs. S. McClanahan (ERA: 3.95 – Home ERA: 4.32 – Avg. ML: -116)
Pick: Bet $10 BAL
Notes: Probably a day late on this bet since Baltimore beat up on Tampa yesterday but I like John Means on the mound for the Orioles – even if he doesn’t go far into the game. McClanahan is hittable and as far as lottery tickets go, this is not a terrible one.
$10 bet on the Orioles.
MIN (142) at CWS (-154)
Pitchers: B. Ober (ERA: 6.04 – Road ERA: 6.34 – Avg. ML: -104) vs. D. Keuchel (ERA: 4.14 – Home ERA: 3.7 – Avg. ML: -111)
Pick: Bet $10 MIN
Notes: Another value play here. These two teams split a doubleheader yesterday but I kind of like the Twins to nab another win today. They have not played well lately and their 18-29 road record is concerning. But Dallas Keuchel has been inconsistent and has been following up good games with shitty ones. He went 7 innings with 1 earned run last time out. I’m banking on him getting hit a bit harder today.
$10 bet on the Twins.
KC (152) at MIL (-166)
Pitchers: M. Minor (ERA: 5.8 – Road ERA: 5.83 – Avg. ML: 108) vs. B. Anderson (ERA: 4.9 – Home ERA: 3.55 – Avg. ML: -102)
Pick: Lean MIL
BOS () at TOR ()
Pitchers: G. Richards (ERA: 5.05 – Road ERA: 3.99 – Avg. ML: -101) vs. A. Manoah (ERA: 2.97 – Home ERA: 2.24 – Avg. ML: -114)
NYM () at CIN ()
Pitchers: R. Stock (ERA: 7.88 – Road ERA: 11.25 – Avg. ML: 164) vs. W. Miley (ERA: 2.83 – Home ERA: 3.17 – Avg. ML: 102)
TEX (101) at DET (-110)
Pitchers: D. Dunning (ERA: 4.29 – Road ERA: 6.84 – Avg. ML: 123) vs. T. Skubal (ERA: 4.48 – Home ERA: 3.83 – Avg. ML: 149)
Pick: Lean DET
SD () at ATL ()
Pitchers: Y. Darvish (ERA: 3.13 – Road ERA: 3.71 – Avg. ML: -158) vs. K. Muller (ERA: 2.54 – Home ERA: 5.19 – Avg. ML: 134)
CLE (155) at HOU (-170)
Pitchers: T. McKenzie (ERA: 5.28 – Road ERA: 5.02 – Avg. ML: 109) vs. L. Garcia (ERA: 3.13 – Home ERA: 2.45 – Avg. ML: -120)
Pick: Lean CLE
CHC () at STL ()
Pitchers: T. Williams (ERA: 4.93 – Road ERA: 8.36 – Avg. ML: 100) vs. Undecided (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0)
SEA (160) at COL (-175)
Pitchers: M. Gonzales (ERA: 6.8 – Road ERA: 8.9 – Avg. ML: 123) vs. G. Marquez (ERA: 3.18 – Home ERA: 3.08 – Avg. ML: 112)
Pick: Lean COL
PIT () at ARI ()
Pitchers: T. Anderson (ERA: 4.42 – Road ERA: 5.58 – Avg. ML: 140) vs. Undecided (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0)
SF () at LAD ()
Pitchers: A. Wood (ERA: 3.77 – Road ERA: 3.64 – Avg. ML: -117) vs. Undecided (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0)