Degen Show Part (7/26/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 7/26/21
DET (151) at MIN (-164)
Pitchers: M. Manning (ERA: 6.09 – Road ERA: 8.86 – Avg. ML: 149) vs. M. Pineda (ERA: 3.99 – Home ERA: 3.81 – Avg. ML: -113)
Pick: Bet $10 DET
Notes: The Tigers had been making some impressive strides before running into the juggernaut that is the Kansas City Royals this past weekend. After being swept, they head to Minnesota to take on a Twins team that lost 3 of 4 in Anaheim.
The Twins have the series lead over Detroit but the Tigers have won the last 3 games. Granted, Minnesota swept a 4-game series over the Tigers just 2 weeks ago. And the Tigers are a woeful 19-32 on the road this season. But let’s just sweep that under the rug for now.
Oh yeah, pitching advantage is with Pineda and his home 3.81 ERA over Manning’s 8.86 road ERA. But let’s forget about that too.
So why am I betting on Detroit? Because despite all of those stats and home dominance by the Twins over Detroit, the uncertainty over the Twins’ players at the trade deadline this week plus the big plus line for the Tigers makes this a calculated value play.
$10 bet on Detroit.
COL (138) at LAA (-151)
Pitchers: G. Marquez (ERA: 3.33 – Road ERA: 3.39 – Avg. ML: 110) vs. S. Ohtani (ERA: 3.27 – Home ERA: 1.91 – Avg. ML: -112)
Pick: Bet $10 LAA
Notes: Colorado is 10-36 on the road this season. One of those wins came this past weekend over the Dodgers so its in the realm of possibility that they could beat the Angels. Only, its not going to happen today. I am definitely not the Ohtani fanboy that Panther is – but hard to deny that he’s a dominant pitcher at home. His ERA is 1.91 at home and he regularly goes 6+ innings.
Minor point of annoyance here. When you go to look up Ohtani’s stats on the 4-letter network’s site, you have to do some extra clicking since his default status is DH. But at least it showed me that he hit his 35th home run yesterday over the Twins – just his second homer after the break.
If he wants to get a homer today it won’t be easy. Marquez has given up only 9 this season and other than his last outing in Seattle – he has had a pretty damn good year.
But ultimately, I think the Angels win this one and Ohtani notches another win. $10 bet on Anaheim.
ATL (140) at NYM (-153)
Pitchers: K. Muller (ERA: 2.47 – Road ERA: 1 – Avg. ML: 141) vs. M. Stroman (ERA: 2.61 – Home ERA: 2.65 – Avg. ML: -115)
Pick: Lean ATL
WSH (106) at PHI (-115)
Pitchers: J. Ross (ERA: 3.87 – Road ERA: 3.24 – Avg. ML: 120) vs. S. Howard (ERA: 3.96 – Home ERA: 3.53 – Avg. ML: 113)
Pick: Lean PHI
TOR () at BOS ()
Pitchers: T. Hatch (ERA: 0 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0) vs. N. Pivetta (ERA: 4.46 – Home ERA: 5.75 – Avg. ML: -107)
CIN (118) at CHC (-128)
Pitchers: W. Miley (ERA: 2.75 – Road ERA: 2.52 – Avg. ML: 101) vs. K. Hendricks (ERA: 3.66 – Home ERA: 3.92 – Avg. ML: -114)
Pick: Lean CIN
ATL (117) at NYM (-140)
Pitchers: B. Wilson (ERA: 5.43 – Road ERA: 3.6 – Avg. ML: 100) vs. A. Loup (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -212)
Pick: Lean NYM
CWS (-121) at KC (111)
Pitchers: D. Keuchel (ERA: 4.11 – Road ERA: 4.58 – Avg. ML: -112) vs. M. Minor (ERA: 5.56 – Home ERA: 5.77 – Avg. ML: 109)
Pick: Lean CWS
HOU (-173) at SEA (158)
Pitchers: L. Garcia (ERA: 2.9 – Road ERA: 4.02 – Avg. ML: -121) vs. D. McCaughan (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0)
Pick: Lean HOU