Degen Show Part (7/3/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 7/3/21
MIL (2.5) at ATL (-2.5)
Pick: Bet $10 ATL ML (-142)
Total: 216.5 (Lean Under – 215)
Predicted Score: MIL 107 – ATL 108
Notes: Game 6 shifts back to Atlanta and the Bucks have a chance to eliminate the pesky Hawks and punch their ticket to the finals. But it looks like they will need to do so without Giannis – who is listed as doubtful today. The Hawks might get their start back as Trae Young is listed as questionable today.
The line shift seems to indicate that Young might give it a go. Rumor has it that Giannis would go in a game 7 – if needed. Without him, it comes down to Middleton and Holiday to be good enough to beat the Hawks. Which I think they can be – if they play their best basketball.
For Middleton, we have seen that in these playoffs but we’ve also seen a shitty version of Middleton too. In the Bucks’ three wins, he hit 10 of 25 from 3-point land and in their two losses, he shot 0-16. So yeah, if Milwaukee has a chance, he needs to be on his game.
For Atlanta, it’s the certainty over Young that matters. Game 4 showed that they can compete without him. Throwing him into the mix while not 100% could actually limit them as they feed him the ball and he forces shots.
I have Atlanta winning this game. Not necessarily covering. But winning and pushing a game 7. So I will bet the Hawks moneyline here but I do so without too much confidence. Remember, I have not hit an NBA bet since June 22nd.
Down with the ship… One more game left in the NHL season it seems.
TB (103) at TOR (-112)
Pitchers: S. McClanahan (ERA: 4.12 – Road ERA: 3.65 – Avg. ML: -117) vs. R. Stripling (ERA: 5.16 – Home ERA: 5.64 – Avg. ML: 109)
Pick: Bet $10 TB
Notes: The Rays just got smashed by the Blue Jays and have now lost 4 in a row and find themselves trailing the Red Sox in the East. Toronto is a team that is gaining ground on them and the Rays cannot afford to lose many more games to them. With Stripling on the mound for Toronto, Tampa has a chance to get a win today and avoid getting on the verge of a sweep.
$10 bet on Tampa.
SD (-155) at PHI (143)
Pitchers: Y. Darvish (ERA: 2.47 – Road ERA: 3.21 – Avg. ML: -159) vs. Z. Eflin (ERA: 4.27 – Home ERA: 2.13 – Avg. ML: 108)
Pick: Bet $10 SD
Notes: If you download and listen to every single episode, you know that I have not been kind to Yu Darvish over the years. And even this year, I have been critical of him with the questions around his use of a substance to help his spin rate. I wanted to avoid saying “foreign substance” to avoid being cancelled.
Anyway, he has proven me wrong this year and I am going to back him today. I am a little worried that his road ERA is a bit higher than his standard ERA and that Elfin has been solid at home. I am also worried that the Padres’ subpar road play matched with the Phillies good home play could spell doom.
But I’ll do it anyway. $10 bet on the Darvishes.
CWS (-127) at DET (117)
Pitchers: D. Keuchel (ERA: 3.81 – Road ERA: 3.95 – Avg. ML: -107) vs. T. Skubal (ERA: 4.17 – Home ERA: 3.25 – Avg. ML: 154)
Pick: Bet $10 DET
Notes: Chasing waterfalls here. I missed badly on Detroit yesterday but I am back on them today. Skubal, at home, matches up quite well with Keuchel on the road. Chicago has won 5 in a row and their offense seems to be clicking – but I’ve seen this team play all season and know that they are bound for a letdown soon. Hoping that day is today.
$10 bet on the Tigers.
NYM (165) at NYY (-181)
Pitchers: T. Walker (ERA: 2.41 – Road ERA: 3.38 – Avg. ML: -113) vs. J. Montgomery (ERA: 4.34 – Home ERA: 3.04 – Avg. ML: -130)
Pick: Lean NYY
MIL (-160) at PIT (147)
Pitchers: E. Lauer (ERA: 4.37 – Road ERA: 4.09 – Avg. ML: 107) vs. C. Ponce (ERA: 7.2 – Home ERA: 7.2 – Avg. ML: 121)
Pick: Lean MIL
CHC (123) at CIN (-133)
Pitchers: A. Alzolay (ERA: 4.66 – Road ERA: 5.38 – Avg. ML: 112) vs. T. Mahle (ERA: 3.67 – Home ERA: 6.85 – Avg. ML: -119)
Pick: Lean CIN
MIA (114) at ATL (-123)
Pitchers: S. Alcantara (ERA: 3.07 – Road ERA: 3.62 – Avg. ML: 106) vs. K. Muller (ERA: 1 – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 188)
Pick: Lean ATL
MIN () at KC ()
Pitchers: G. Jax (n/a) vs. D. Duffy (ERA: 2.53 – Home ERA: 2.09 – Avg. ML: 102)
LAD (-200) at WSH (182)
Pitchers: C. Kershaw (ERA: 3.28 – Road ERA: 3.94 – Avg. ML: -162) vs. P. Espino (ERA: 1.28 – Home ERA: 1.28 – Avg. ML: -155)
Pick: Lean LAD
HOU (-177) at CLE (162)
Pitchers: J. Odorizzi (ERA: 4.74 – Road ERA: 3.3 – Avg. ML: -119) vs. E. Morgan (ERA: 7.5 – Home ERA: 7.68 – Avg. ML: 135)
Pick: Lean HOU
BOS (118) at OAK (-128)
Pitchers: G. Richards (ERA: 5.12 – Road ERA: 4.03 – Avg. ML: -102) vs. C. Irvin (ERA: 3.72 – Home ERA: 4.63 – Avg. ML: -103)
Pick: Lean OAK
STL (-104) at COL (-104)
Pitchers: W. LeBlanc (ERA: 8.49 – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 102) vs. A. Cobb (ERA: 5.23 – Home ERA: 2.87 – Avg. ML: -104)
Pick: Lean COL
BAL () at LAA ()
Pitchers: J. Lopez (ERA: 6.01 – Road ERA: 6.59 – Avg. ML: 153) vs. A. Cobb (ERA: 5.23 – Home ERA: 2.87 – Avg. ML: -104)
SF (-166) at ARI (153)
Pitchers: S. Long (ERA: 4.2 – Road ERA: 2.25 – Avg. ML: -115) vs. J. Faria (ERA: 2.25 – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 149)
Pick: Lean SF
TEX (131) at SEA (-142)
Pitchers: J. Lyles (ERA: 5.4 – Road ERA: 5.22 – Avg. ML: 155) vs. M. Gonzales (ERA: 5.96 – Home ERA: 4.69 – Avg. ML: 128)
Pick: Lean SEA