Degen Show Part (7/30/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 7/30/21
BAL (132) at DET (-144)
Pitchers: M. Harvey (ERA: 6.98 – Road ERA: 6.94 – Avg. ML: 157) vs. T. Skubal (ERA: 4.53 – Home ERA: 3.58 – Avg. ML: 142)
Pick: Bet $10 DET
Notes: The Tigers have won 3 games in a row after yesterday’s win over the Orioles. Detroit is now only 5 games under .500 and with the news that Terry Francona will be out the rest of the season for Cleveland, perhaps the Tigers have a chance to jump up to second place in the Central.
And its been fun to watch Miguel Cabrera put up some numbers as he tries to get to 3000 hits and 500 homeruns this season. But it’s the young pitching that has kept this team in games. Yesterday was Casey Mize and today is Tarik Skubal’s turn.
The O’s will put Matt Harvey on the mound – who is coming off back-to-back 6 inning, no run performances. It’s been a rollercoaster of a season for Harvey so its difficult to see if he can sustain this type of pitching for many more games.
History says no. No he can’t. And I tend to agree. This should be another win for the Tigers.
$10 bet on Detroit.
NYY (-145) at MIA (133)
Pitchers: J. Taillon (ERA: 4.54 – Road ERA: 6.32 – Avg. ML: -121) vs. Z. Thompson (ERA: 2.4 – Home ERA: 2.81 – Avg. ML: 127)
Pick: Bet $10 MIA
Notes: The Marlins had won 3 in a row prior to dropping their last game to the Orioles. But the optimistic thing there is they still scored 7 runs in that loss and have scored 26 runs over their last 4 games.
The Yankees made up some ground this week – beating the Red Sox and taking 2 of 3 from Tampa. They also added some extra bats to their lineup and apparently are not done dealing. But until all of those pieces are in place – and they address that starting pitching – I think they are vulnerable to drop road games against a pitching-heavy team like the Marlins.
Zach Thompson has been shaky as of late but still is having a pretty solid year and is definitely the better of the two starters – though it should be noted that Taillon has looked very good his last 4 starts.
Still, I think the value is with Miami today to nab game one in this series.
$10 bet on the Fish.
MIN (-120) at STL (111)
Pitchers: J. Berrios (ERA: 3.53 – Road ERA: 3.71 – Avg. ML: -130) vs. W. LeBlanc (ERA: 4.8 – Home ERA: 5.24 – Avg. ML: 116)
Pick: Bet $10 STL
Notes: Jose Berrios is listed as the starter in this game but after possibly losing out on Max Scherzer, it seems like the Padres are ready to send a deal to the Twins for Berrios. So I expect this line to change once a new pitcher is announced.
For the Cardinals, they find themselves as a .500 team and 7.5 games out of the Wild Card. As such, it seems like the Cardinals are neither buyers or sellers right now and could forge ahead with what they have and see how it goes. The one name that has popped up for St. Louis is Kyle Gibson – which would not only be a trade for this year but give them some control for next season too.
One thing that the Cardinals can look forward to is the return of their ace – Jack Flaherty – and former ace – Miles Mikolas – who could give them a boost soon. Which is much needed considering they have Wade fucking LeBlanc on the mound today.
Still, I do like them to nab a win today. $10 bet on St. Louis.
PHI (-127) at PIT (117)
Pitchers: V. Velasquez (ERA: 5.57 – Road ERA: 6.45 – Avg. ML: 108) vs. W. Crowe (ERA: 6.01 – Home ERA: 5.94 – Avg. ML: 161)
Pick: Lean PIT
CHC () at WSH ()
Pitchers: T. Williams (ERA: 4.61 – Road ERA: 8.11 – Avg. ML: -103) vs. Undecided (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0)
KC (178) at TOR (-196)
Pitchers: D. Lynch (ERA: 8.63 – Road ERA: 12.27 – Avg. ML: 110) vs. R. Stripling (ERA: 5.68 – Home ERA: 6.49 – Avg. ML: 105)
Pick: Lean TOR
CIN (113) at NYM (-122)
Pitchers: S. Gray (ERA: 4.75 – Road ERA: 3.52 – Avg. ML: -106) vs. C. Carrasco (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0)
Pick: Lean CIN
BOS () at TB ()
Pitchers: M. Perez (ERA: 4.13 – Road ERA: 2.26 – Avg. ML: -105) vs. J. Fleming (ERA: 5.14 – Home ERA: 2.25 – Avg. ML: -110)
MIL () at ATL ()
Pitchers: C. Burnes (ERA: 2.06 – Road ERA: 1.66 – Avg. ML: -142) vs. T. Toussaint (ERA: 1.36 – Home ERA: 1.45 – Avg. ML: 154)
SEA () at TEX ()
Pitchers: L. Gilbert (ERA: 3.99 – Road ERA: 2.42 – Avg. ML: 132) vs. K. Allard (ERA: 5.34 – Home ERA: 4.48 – Avg. ML: 147)
CLE (183) at CWS (-202)
Pitchers: J. Mejia (ERA: 8.87 – Road ERA: 9.22 – Avg. ML: 124) vs. L. Lynn (ERA: 1.92 – Home ERA: 1.64 – Avg. ML: -129)
Pick: Lean CWS
OAK (-111) at LAA (103)
Pitchers: C. Bassitt (ERA: 3.55 – Road ERA: 4.16 – Avg. ML: -122) vs. P. Sandoval (ERA: 3.41 – Home ERA: 4.47 – Avg. ML: -110)
Pick: Lean LAA
LAD (-182) at ARI (166)
Pitchers: T. Gonsolin (ERA: 2.49 – Road ERA: 1.89 – Avg. ML: -166) vs. Z. Gallen (ERA: 4.98 – Home ERA: 4.46 – Avg. ML: 129)
Pick: Lean LAD
HOU (103) at SF (-111)
Pitchers: F. Valdez (ERA: 2.99 – Road ERA: 2.98 – Avg. ML: -134) vs. K. Gausman (ERA: 2.23 – Home ERA: 3.11 – Avg. ML: -116)
Pick: Lean SF
COL (169) at SD (-185)
Pitchers: J. Gray (ERA: 3.85 – Road ERA: 4.7 – Avg. ML: 138) vs. R. Weathers (ERA: 3.09 – Home ERA: 3.76 – Avg. ML: -120)
Pick: Lean SD