Degen Show Part (7/5/21)
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Your favorite Degens give you their Sports Bet Picks for 7/5/21. Listen to the Degen’s NBA win totals episode, their MLB futures episode and Max’s NHL Power rankings post.
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 7/5/21
Game 1 of the Finals starts tomorrow. Most books have the Suns as a 5.5 favorite. Public seems to be split while the money is coming in on Phoenix. The total is set to 217.5 with public/money split. Some bets coming in on the Milwaukee moneyline – which pays +195.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-153) at Montreal Canadiens (138)
Pick: Bet $20 Montreal
Notes: If the mayor of Tampa had his way, the Lightning would throw tonight’s game and come back home to clinch the Cup at home. Part of that has to do with Canada not allowing the families of players to be allowed in to celebrate – which is not unexpected seeing as a lot of strings had to be pulled to even allow the games to take place in Canada to begin with.
While the sentiment is nice, the reality is that the players don’t care. They want to win this fucking game and then they can travel back and celebrate then. And they don’t want to give life to a dangerous Montreal team that they have absolutely humiliated through 3 games.
Tampa’s offense flexed in Game 3 and Montreal had no answers. The smart play here would be to bet Tampa today and if they lose, bet them again the next game because it is a matter of when, not if, the Lightning win the Cup.
It’s been 23 years since a Stanley Cup sweep when the Red Wings swept the Capitals. The last team to come back from a 3-0 deficit in the finals was the Toronto Maple Leafs who did it back in 1942. Can the Team of Destiny be the 2nd team ever to come back from a 3-0 series hole in the Cup Finals?
Probably not but down with the goddamn ship.
$10 bet on the Canadiens.
STL (155) at SF (-186)
Pitchers: K. Kim (ERA: 3.9 – Road ERA: 4.61 – Avg. ML: -103) vs. K. Gausman (ERA: 1.69 – Home ERA: 2.31 – Avg. ML: -109)
Pick: Bet $10 SF
Notes: The Giants head back home today after winning 3 of 4 from the Diamondbacks. Kevin Gausman is on the mound and he’s having a terrific season so far. The Cardinals put Kim on the mound and look to bounce back from a bad series against the Rockies. It just won’t be today. $10 bet on San Francisco.
ATL (-188) at PIT (171)
Pitchers: M. Fried (ERA: 4.34 – Road ERA: 5.5 – Avg. ML: -132) vs. C. De Jong (ERA: 5.74 – Home ERA: 6.34 – Avg. ML: 151)
Pick: Bet $10 ATL
Notes: Atlanta has a +21 run differential over the past 10 days and they have won 4 of 5 games. They now sit 3.5 games behind the Mets and with a series against Pittsburgh for them and the Mets dealing with red hot Milwaukee, it could be Atlanta nabbing 1st place in the East soon.
Max Fried has not been dependable this season and his road ERA is even worse. But he’s still better than De Jong and the Braves offense is more reliable than Pittsburgh’s. $10 bet on the Braves.
CWS (-118) at MIN (109)
Pitchers: D. Cease (ERA: 3.9 – Road ERA: 6.45 – Avg. ML: -113) vs. B. Ober (ERA: 6.68 – Home ERA: 6.87 – Avg. ML: 101)
Pick: Bet $10 CWS
Notes: Chicago just lost 2 of 3 from Detroit and continues to be a baffling team to bet on. They have been able to dominate the Twins this season and hopefully that trend continues today. Cease is on the mound and his road ERA is concerning but the Twins in general are concerning. $10 bet on Chicago.
CIN (107) at KC (-115)
Pitchers: V. Gutierrez (ERA: 4.96 – Road ERA: 4.29 – Avg. ML: 130) vs. M. Minor (ERA: 5.46 – Home ERA: 5.74 – Avg. ML: 109)
Pick: Bet $10 KC
Notes: The Royals are coming off a good series with the Twins and improved to 20-20 at home. The Reds have won 4 in a row but their offense has not been that great over the last 10 days. The Reds are the better team, but I like KC to nab the series opener. $10 bet on KC.
BOS (-107) at LAA (-115)
Pitchers: M. Perez (ERA: 4.23 – Road ERA: 2.16 – Avg. ML: -102) vs. J. Suarez (ERA: 2.25 – Home ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: 161)
Pick: Bet $10 BOS
Notes: The Red Sox have won 4 of 5 and took the series against Oakland this weekend. Heading down to Anaheim, the Sox are 26-15 on the road and play an Angels team that struggles with above .500 teams. Perez has a 2.16 road ERA and has been a big reason the Sox have won on the road this season. I like them to grab another road win today. $10 bet on Boston.
LAD (-160) at MIA (147)
Pitchers: W. Buehler (ERA: 2.37 – Road ERA: 2.07 – Avg. ML: -190) vs. T. Rogers (ERA: 2.26 – Home ERA: 2.45 – Avg. ML: 102)
Pick: Lean MIA
MIL (-150) at NYM (138)
Pitchers: B. Woodruff (ERA: 1.9 – Road ERA: 1.58 – Avg. ML: -122) vs. T. Megill (ERA: 4.95 – Home ERA: 4.39 – Avg. ML: 104)
Pick: Lean MIL
CLE (188) at TB (-207)
Pitchers: L. Allen (ERA: 9.29 – Road ERA: 18 – Avg. ML: -104) vs. R. Hill (ERA: 3.75 – Home ERA: 3.6 – Avg. ML: -116)
Pick: Lean TB
PHI (115) at CHC (-134)
Pitchers: M. Moore (ERA: 7.06 – Road ERA: 4.5 – Avg. ML: 139) vs. Z. Davies (ERA: 4.44 – Home ERA: 4.25 – Avg. ML: 114)
Pick: Lean CHC
DET (135) at TEX (-147)
Pitchers: W. Peralta (ERA: 3.69 – Road ERA: 4.5 – Avg. ML: 173) vs. K. Allard (ERA: 3.66 – Home ERA: 4.24 – Avg. ML: 145)
Pick: Lean TEX
WSH () at SD ()
Pitchers: J. Lester (ERA: 6.04 – Road ERA: 8.08 – Avg. ML: 117) vs. J. Musgrove (ERA: 2.92 – Home ERA: 2.25 – Avg. ML: -141)