Degen Show Part (7/6/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 7/6/21
MIL (6.5) at PHX (-6.5)
Pick: Bet $50 PHX ML (-245)
Total: 218.5 (Lean Under – 213)
Predicted Score: MIL 108 – PHX 110
Notes: The status of Giannis is still up in the air for this game. Even if he does play, forcing a partially injured star into the mix doesn’t always bode well for a team that has built a chemistry the past week without him. The Bucks are coming off a hard-fought series with the Hawks that saw role players Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez step up to help Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday.
But can they compete with the Suns? I don’t think so. To make matters worse, the series starts in Phoenix – which will test the Bucks’ road mentality. This year has not been kind to them outside of Milwaukee – going 25-20 and 19-25-1 ATS.
I think Phoenix will win this one. They should even cover. But my play is $50 on the Phoenix moneyline.
Well, the Team of Destiny lives to lose another day.
LAD (-132) at MIA (122)
Pitchers: T. Gonsolin (ERA: 3.1 – Road ERA: 4.09 – Avg. ML: -172) vs. P. Lopez (ERA: 3.34 – Home ERA: 2.24 – Avg. ML: -103)
Pick: Bet $10 LAD
Notes: The Marlins got the Dodgers yesterday and hard to imagine they grab two in a row. Pitching edge, once again, goes to Miami. But hard to imagine the Marlins can put up 5 or more runs in consecutive games. That loss broke the Dodgers winning streak and they should start another today. $10 bet on LA.
PHI (-128) at CHC (118)
Pitchers: A. Nola (ERA: 4.55 – Road ERA: 5.43 – Avg. ML: -132) vs. J. Arrieta (ERA: 5.66 – Home ERA: 4.15 – Avg. ML: 109)
Pick: Bet $10 PHI
Notes: I didn’t realize that the Cubs had lost 9 in a row going into yesterday’s game. Well make it 10. Well, I guess, make it 11. I like Philly again today. The Cubs are markedly better at home compared to the Phillies on the road and Nola has been hit hard away from Philly. But The price is right to jump on the Phillies. $10 bet on Philly.
CWS (-112) at MIN (103)
Pitchers: C. Rodon (ERA: 2.24 – Road ERA: 1.38 – Avg. ML: -141) vs. J. Berrios (ERA: 3.59 – Home ERA: 3.99 – Avg. ML: -133)
Pick: Bet $10 CWS
Notes: Chasing waterfalls here. I missed on Chicago yesterday and I might miss again. Rodon has been amazing this year and even better on the road. Berrios’ name has popped up into trade conversations and if the Twins can’t get hot, they might be willing to deal him. The price would be steep considering he is 7-2 this year – despite not throwing his best stuff. I like Chicago to bounce back today and get the win against Berrios. $10 bet on the White Sox.
BOS (-113) at LAA (104)
Pitchers: N. Eovaldi (ERA: 3.41 – Road ERA: 3.1 – Avg. ML: -123) vs. S. Ohtani (ERA: 3.69 – Home ERA: 1.78 – Avg. ML: -113)
Pick: Bet $10 BOS
Notes: Guess I will double dip here. I hit Boston yesterday and now the Circus Sideshow Freak takes the mound for Anaheim but I still like Boston today. Ohtani has been much better pitching at home than on the road but Eovaldi is having a pretty damn good year. And those Boston bats are clicking right now. $10 bet on the Red Sox.
COL (106) at ARI (-115)
Pitchers: J. Gray (ERA: 4.13 – Road ERA: 5.82 – Avg. ML: 143) vs. M. Kelly (ERA: 4.75 – Home ERA: 3.71 – Avg. ML: 145)
Pick: Bet $10 COL
Notes: Colorado can’t win on the road. The Diamondbacks can’t win. Arizona has managed to beat Colorado a few times this year – mostly in Arizona – but this Rockies team has won 6 of 7 games (against the Pirates and Cardinals … at home). But still! Merill Kelly be damned! Colorado is my play today. $10 bet on the Rockies.
NYY (-144) at SEA (132)
Pitchers: J. Taillon (ERA: 5.79 – Road ERA: 12.12 – Avg. ML: -131) vs. J. Sheffield (ERA: 5.86 – Home ERA: 5.21 – Avg. ML: 133)
Pick: Bet $10 SEA
Notes: I continue to say that if Seattle or Colorado plays at home and is getting a plus line that I would give them a hard look. Well, Seattle is playing at home. They are a plus line. The Yankees just flew cross country. And these Yankees are not playing great baseball lately. So I’ll jump on the value here. $10 bet on the Mariners.
ATL (-165) at PIT (151)
Pitchers: I. Anderson (ERA: 3.39 – Road ERA: 2.7 – Avg. ML: -117) vs. C. Kuhl (ERA: 5.27 – Home ERA: 3.55 – Avg. ML: 162)
Pick: Lean PIT
TOR () at BAL ()
Pitchers: S. Matz (ERA: 4.76 – Road ERA: 3.52 – Avg. ML: -111) vs. M. Harvey (ERA: 7.74 – Home ERA: 7.38 – Avg. ML: 155)
MIL (237) at NYM (-265)
Pitchers: B. Anderson (ERA: 5.33 – Road ERA: 6.76 – Avg. ML: -102) vs. J. deGrom (ERA: 0.95 – Home ERA: 1.02 – Avg. ML: -184)
Pick: Lean NYM
DET (154) at TEX (-168)
Pitchers: J. Urena (ERA: 6.49 – Road ERA: 5.39 – Avg. ML: 155) vs. D. Dunning (ERA: 4.46 – Home ERA: 2.63 – Avg. ML: 125)
Pick: Lean TEX
OAK (135) at HOU (-147)
Pitchers: C. Bassitt (ERA: 3.07 – Road ERA: 3.55 – Avg. ML: -121) vs. F. Valdez (ERA: 2.2 – Home ERA: 2 – Avg. ML: -137)
Pick: Lean HOU
CIN () at KC ()
Pitchers: L. Castillo (ERA: 5.34 – Road ERA: 5.82 – Avg. ML: -105) vs. K. Bubic (ERA: 5.95 – Home ERA: 2.98 – Avg. ML: 123)
STL (114) at SF (-123)
Pitchers: A. Wainwright (ERA: 3.53 – Road ERA: 5.42 – Avg. ML: -110) vs. J. Cueto (ERA: 4.12 – Home ERA: 2.89 – Avg. ML: -107)
Pick: Lean SF
WSH () at SD ()
Pitchers: P. Corbin (ERA: 5.67 – Road ERA: 6.65 – Avg. ML: 106) vs. R. Weathers (ERA: 3.05 – Home ERA: 3.28 – Avg. ML: -112)