Degen Show Part (7/8/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 7/8/21
MIL (5.5) at PHX (-5.5)
Pick: Bet $50 PHX ML (-245)
Total: 219.5 (Lean Under – 215)
Predicted Score: MIL 107 – PHX 108
Notes: The line for game 1 was Suns -6.5 with the status of Giannis uncertain. Giannis played game 1, had a great game, so his efforts are worth … 1 point. The bookmakers looked at game 1, saw how the Suns played – how they dominated – and decided, “Yeah, we can keep it in the 6 point range for spread.”
Which brings me to the moneyline. I paid -245 in game 1 on the Suns moneyline and that point difference in spread is saving me over $30. And you are finding a little bit more value betting the moneyline here than the spread based on implied probability.
I know the Suns covered in game 1 but I still think the play is betting them to win. $50 bet on the Suns moneyline.
OAK (152) at HOU (-166)
Pitchers: F. Montas (ERA: 4.75 – Road ERA: 4.88 – Avg. ML: -108) vs. L. McCullers Jr. (ERA: 3.02 – Home ERA: 3.05 – Avg. ML: -141)
Pick: Bet $10 HOU
Notes: I have been making money betting on Houston in this series and I see no reason to bail out now. I get it. I got mine, yadda, yadda, but I still think there is more to get. Oakland stays in Texas and travels to face the Rangers tomorrow and Houston stays home to host the Yankees. So not quite a travel day but still, not having to go anywhere benefits Houston – who has won 6 in a row. Make it 7. $10 bet on the Astros.
NYY (-133) at SEA (123)
Pitchers: J. Montgomery (ERA: 4.45 – Road ERA: 5.7 – Avg. ML: -131) vs. L. Gilbert (ERA: 4.3 – Home ERA: 5.97 – Avg. ML: 135)
Pick: Bet $10 SEA
Notes: Little bit of chasing waterfalls here. I missed in game 1 and took game 2 off. Now I am back to bet on Seattle to avoid the sweep. The Mariners get to stay home after this one while the Yankees need to travel down to Houston after this one. Seattle has been good at home and getting the plus line here, I think it’s worth a shot. $10 on the Mariners.
TOR (-199) at BAL (181)
Pitchers: A. Manoah (ERA: 2.73 – Road ERA: 3.13 – Avg. ML: -116) vs. K. Akin (ERA: 8.24 – Home ERA: 5 – Avg. ML: 153)
Pick: Bet $10 BAL
Notes: Lottery ticket time. I hate fading Manoah – who has looked very good in his rookie campaign. But Toronto travels down to Tampa while Baltimore stays home to host the White Sox tomorrow. Meaning the Blue Jays could be sitting some players today. I’m banking on that at least. $10 bet on the Orioles.
KC (118) at CLE (-128)
Pitchers: D. Duffy (ERA: 2.68 – Road ERA: 2.78 – Avg. ML: 101) vs. Z. Plesac (ERA: 4.28 – Home ERA: 3.55 – Avg. ML: -108)
Pick: Bet $10 KC
Notes: Starting to get worried with the dogs I am taking today. But here is another one. I like Duffman on the mound and Cleveland is not a team that you need to consistently be worried about. I like the Royals to nab the first game in this series. $10 bet on KC.
LAD (-151) at MIA (139)
Pitchers: J. Urias (ERA: 3.87 – Road ERA: 3.4 – Avg. ML: -166) vs. S. Alcantara (ERA: 2.91 – Home ERA: 2.63 – Avg. ML: 105)
Pick: Lean MIA
Notes: LA travels back home to host Arizona tomorrow. Miami stays home to host Atlanta.
COL (122) at ARI (-132)
Pitchers: C. Gonzalez (ERA: 5.46 – Road ERA: 6.84 – Avg. ML: 151) vs. J. Faria (ERA: 5.63 – Home ERA: 9 – Avg. ML: 151)
Pick: Lean ARI
Notes: Colorado travels to San Diego while Arizona travels to LA.
PIT () at NYM ()
Pitchers: J. Brubaker (ERA: 4.18 – Road ERA: 4.78 – Avg. ML: 123) vs. T. Walker (ERA: 2.48 – Home ERA: 1.53 – Avg. ML: -108)
PHI (103) at CHC (-111)
Pitchers: Z. Eflin (ERA: 4.19 – Road ERA: 5.87 – Avg. ML: 112) vs. A. Alzolay (ERA: 4.58 – Home ERA: 4.02 – Avg. ML: 111)
Pick: Lean PHI
Notes: Philly travels to Boston while Cubs stay home to host St. Louis.
CIN (103) at MIL (-111)
Pitchers: T. Mahle (ERA: 3.56 – Road ERA: 1.86 – Avg. ML: -118) vs. A. Houser (ERA: 4.2 – Home ERA: 4.43 – Avg. ML: -110)
Pick: Lean MIL
DET (120) at MIN (-130)
Pitchers: T. Skubal (ERA: 4.48 – Road ERA: 5.67 – Avg. ML: 153) vs. J. Happ (ERA: 6.29 – Home ERA: 4.52 – Avg. ML: -108)
Pick: Lean DET
WSH (123) at SD (-134)
Pitchers: M. Scherzer (ERA: 2.12 – Road ERA: 2.33 – Avg. ML: -122) vs. Y. Darvish (ERA: 2.68 – Home ERA: 2.16 – Avg. ML: -160)
Pick: Lean SD
Notes: The Nats head up to SF while the Padres stay home to host Colorado.