Degen Show Part (8/14/21)
And check out Max’s MLB picks and notes below!
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 8/14/21
2021 NFL Win Totals
|Green Bay Packers||10||Over|
|Kansas City Chiefs||12.5||Under|
|Las Vegas Raiders||6.5||Over|
|Los Angeles Chargers||9.5||Under|
|Los Angeles Rams||10.5||Under|
|New England Patriots||9.5||Under|
|New Orleans Saints||9.5||Over|
|New York Giants||7.5||Over|
|New York Jets||6||Under|
|San Francisco 49ers||10.5||Under|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||11.5||Under|
|Washington Football Team||8.5||Over|
ATL (-176) at WSH (161)
Pitchers: M. Fried (ERA: 4.01 – Road ERA: 5.09 – Avg. ML: -123) vs. P. Corbin (ERA: 5.93 – Home ERA: 5.46 – Avg. ML: 113)
Pick: Bet $10 ATL
Notes: The Nationals have now lost 5 in a row after yesterday’s loss to the Braves. Atlanta now sits tied with the Phillies in the NL East – with the Mets a half game back. So the Braves really need to win the winnable games and this is one of them.
Pat Corbin has not been an effective pitcher this season and he’s given up 4 or more runs in each of his last 5 starts. Max Fried started the season off in a funk but has slowly reverted back to his ace-like ways – producing 3 stellar starts in a row.
Atlanta’s offense is bumping right now and while I don’t expect the Nationals to be swept this weekend, I am banking on them not winning this one.
$10 bet on the Braves.
NYY (115) at CWS (-125)
Pitchers: J. Taillon (ERA: 3.96 – Road ERA: 4.81 – Avg. ML: -128) vs. D. Cease (ERA: 4.09 – Home ERA: 2.3 – Avg. ML: -121)
Pick: Bet $10 NYY
Notes: After facing off in a corn field, the Yanks and White Sox continue their series at Guaranteed Rate Field. Amongst the dumb fucking names for a stadium, this one is perhaps the worst in MLB – maybe rivaled by the Marlins’ LoanDepot Field. But I digress, no more Field of Dreams for these two teams – it’s back to business as Dylan Cease takes the mound for the White Sox.
Cease has had a good season – even better at home – but he is coming off a game in which the Cubs scored 3 runs on him in 5 innings. On the flipside, Jameson Tailon has asserted himself as the defacto ace for the Yankees – no apologies to the overpaid, sunblock deficient Gerrit Cole.
Tailon has given up just 3 earned runs over his last 5 starts – pitching 5.1 or more innings in each start. Now granted, he did that against the Royals, Marlins, Orioles and slumping Red Sox. But still, I think he can do the same against a sleep-walking White Sox team today.
Chicago is 11 games up in the AL Central and at this point, its about preventing injuries and winning just enough games to stay competitive with Tampa and Houston for homefield.
I like the Yankees with the plus line today.
$10 bet on New York.
HOU (-175) at LAA (160)
Pitchers: L. Garcia (ERA: 3.39 – Road ERA: 5.36 – Avg. ML: -125) vs. J. Barria (ERA: 2.34 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 151)
Pick: Bet $10 HOU
Notes: Speaking of Houston, they have won 3 in a row as they try to fend off Oakland out West. Luis Garcia is on the mound and coming off a very solid start. The problem is that his last game was at home – where is ERA is 2 full points lower than on the road.
Jamie Barria has looked pretty good since being called back up from AAA. In two home starts this season, he’s yet to give up a run. And he’s an innings eater – which helps the pitching-starved Angels out a lot.
But I think Houston gets to him today and pulls out the win.
$10 bet on the Astros.
TOR (-145) at SEA (133)
Pitchers: H. Ryu (ERA: 3.72 – Road ERA: 3.13 – Avg. ML: -137) vs. Y. Kikuchi (ERA: 3.71 – Home ERA: 4.57 – Avg. ML: 117)
Pick: Bet $10 SEA
Notes: I hit on Seattle yesterday and probably should take the money and run. But I’m going to double dip. I am not getting near as big of a line as I did yesterday but I’m OK with it. Seattle continues to be a great value play at home getting a plus line. If I miss today, I’ll probably be back on them tomorrow.
The Blue Jays definitely have the pitching advantage with Ryu out there. But Kikuchi is having, I guess what you’d call a career year for him. Ryu will be looking to rebound after getting knocked around by the Red Sox in his last start and Kikuchi has only given up a combined 2 runs over his last 3 starts.
So yeah, a $10 bet on the Mariners.
MIL (-165) at PIT (145)
Pitchers: B. Anderson (ERA: 3.94 – Road ERA: 4.44 – Avg. ML: -103) vs. B. Wilson (ERA: 4.48 – Home ERA: 5.82 – Avg. ML: 121)
Pick: Lean MIL
CIN (-151) at PHI (126)
Pitchers: L. Castillo (ERA: 4.71 – Road ERA: 5.72 – Avg. ML: -111) vs. M. Moore (ERA: 7.2 – Home ERA: 9.74 – Avg. ML: 126)
Pick: Lean CIN
BAL (226) at BOS (-252)
Pitchers: J. Lopez (ERA: 5.89 – Road ERA: 6.32 – Avg. ML: 152) vs. C. Sale (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0)
Pick: Lean BOS
CHC (115) at MIA (-139)
Pitchers: Z. Davies (ERA: 5.41 – Road ERA: 5.58 – Avg. ML: 114) vs. Z. Thompson (ERA: 3.13 – Home ERA: 2.86 – Avg. ML: 139)
Pick: Lean MIA
CLE () at DET ()
Pitchers: Undecided (ERA: 0 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0) vs. W. Peralta (ERA: 3.7 – Home ERA: 0.67 – Avg. ML: 145)
MIL (-175) at PIT (150)
Pitchers: A. Ashby (ERA: 16.36 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -148) vs. M. Keller (ERA: 7.27 – Home ERA: 8.58 – Avg. ML: 149)
Pick: Lean MIL
OAK (-197) at TEX (179)
Pitchers: J. Kaprielian (ERA: 3.29 – Road ERA: 5.12 – Avg. ML: -123) vs. J. Lyles (ERA: 5.69 – Home ERA: 5.38 – Avg. ML: 151)
Pick: Lean OAK
LAD (-183) at NYM (167)
Pitchers: W. Buehler (ERA: 2.15 – Road ERA: 2.17 – Avg. ML: -190) vs. T. Walker (ERA: 3.97 – Home ERA: 3.27 – Avg. ML: -110)
Pick: Lean LAD
TB (110) at MIN (-135)
Pitchers: M. Wacha (ERA: 4.59 – Road ERA: 6.07 – Avg. ML: -115) vs. K. Maeda (ERA: 4.59 – Home ERA: 2.59 – Avg. ML: -120)
Pick: Lean TB
STL (-106) at KC (-102)
Pitchers: J. Lester (ERA: 6.11 – Road ERA: 7.64 – Avg. ML: 118) vs. B. Keller (ERA: 5.95 – Home ERA: 6.55 – Avg. ML: 131)
Pick: Lean KC
SD (-201) at ARI (183)
Pitchers: J. Musgrove (ERA: 3.01 – Road ERA: 3.79 – Avg. ML: -144) vs. T. Gilbert (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0)
Pick: Lean ARI
COL (165) at SF (-200)
Pitchers: K. Freeland (ERA: 4.68 – Road ERA: 4.5 – Avg. ML: 155) vs. J. Cueto (ERA: 4.09 – Home ERA: 3.17 – Avg. ML: -111)
Pick: Lean SF