Degen Show (8/28/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 8/28/21
BOS (-139) at CLE (128)
Pitchers: N. Eovaldi (ERA: 3.77 – Road ERA: 5.16 – Avg. ML: -121) vs. C. Quantrill (ERA: 3.51 – Home ERA: 2.7 – Avg. ML: 105)
Pick: Bet $10 CLE
Notes: Maybe yesterday was the game that Cleveland was supposed to win and maybe I’m chasing here but I am jumping on the Guardians here at home with the plus line. Cal Quantrill has pitched very well the past month or so and his home ERA is down to 2.7.
Nathan Eovaldi is having a good season and has had 3 consecutive solid starts but his road ERA is above 5. Cleveland’s offense might not be anywhere close to the AL East opponents Eovaldi has had to deal with, but Cleveland’s offense at home has been much better lately.
They rank 14th in batting average when factoring in home splits and 12th in homers at home.
So yeah, I definitely see some value with the Guardians today. $10 bet on Cleveland.
TB (-189) at BAL (172)
Pitchers: M. Wacha (ERA: 5.05 – Road ERA: 6.94 – Avg. ML: -111) vs. J. Means (ERA: 3.57 – Home ERA: 5.58 – Avg. ML: 117)
Pick: Bet $10 BAL
Notes: The O’s broke their losing streak with back-to-back wins over the Angels. They took a loss yesterday but now they have their ace on the mound today. Of course he has not been an ace in his 7 starts since coming back from injury. Which could explain why the line is stacked against him when it typically favors him.
I just think that prices Tampa out of this game. They should win. But Wacha has given up 21 earned runs over his last 4 starts. If Baltimore could win one, it could be this one.
The money is hammering Tampa and line is getting better. So yeah, a flyer, a lottery ticket, yadda, yadda.
$10 bet on the Orioles.
MIL (-146) at MIN (134)
Pitchers: A. Houser (ERA: 3.7 – Road ERA: 4.02 – Avg. ML: -114) vs. C. Barnes (ERA: 6.92 – Home ERA: 1.8 – Avg. ML: 154)
Pick: Bet $10 MIL
Notes: The Brewers have lost two in a row after dropping that game to the Twins yesterday. And I don’t expect it to be 3 losses in a row. Charlie Barnes hasn’t seen a ton of innings this season but the innings he has pitched have not been impressive.
Houser is having a fine season but his coming off a short start from last Sunday. Maybe that means he will be well-rested.
$10 bet on the Brewers.
SF (105) at ATL (-114)
Pitchers: L. Webb (ERA: 2.89 – Road ERA: 3.94 – Avg. ML: -100) vs. H. Ynoa (ERA: 2.98 – Home ERA: 2.16 – Avg. ML: -116)
Pick: Bet $10 SF
Notes: Atlanta snuck out a win over the Giants yesterday. It’s hard to evaluate these two teams since in many ways they have gotten fat off of some shitty teams this season. Yet both are in first place in their respective divisions.
Huascar Ynoa is on the mound for Atlanta today and matches up quite well with Logan Webb of the Giants. Their ERA and WHIP are fairly similar while Webb has done it over a longer stretch of the season. So should make for a good under on the first 5.
Ultimately I have the Giants edging out the win today so a $10 bet on San Francisco.
NYY (-107) at OAK (-101)
Pitchers: N. Cortes Jr. (ERA: 2.79 – Road ERA: 2.65 – Avg. ML: -117) vs. F. Montas (ERA: 3.92 – Home ERA: 4.1 – Avg. ML: -110)
Pick: Lean OAK
Notes: Looks trappish for New York. Money is hitting them and line is getting better.
KC (140) at SEA (-153)
Pitchers: C. Hernandez (ERA: 3.21 – Road ERA: 1.5 – Avg. ML: 141) vs. T. Anderson (ERA: 4.14 – Home ERA: 3.1 – Avg. ML: 130)
Pick: Lean SEA
ARI (184) at PHI (-203)
Pitchers: H. Mejia (ERA: 3.6 – Road ERA: 3.6 – Avg. ML: 103) vs. K. Gibson (ERA: 2.81 – Home ERA: 1.76 – Avg. ML: 118)
Pick: Lean ARI
CIN (-112) at MIA (104)
Pitchers: V. Gutierrez (ERA: 3.71 – Road ERA: 2.94 – Avg. ML: 117) vs. S. Alcantara (ERA: 3.33 – Home ERA: 2.45 – Avg. ML: 109)
Pick: Lean CIN
Notes: Some sharp money on Miami. Line is getting better for the Reds with majority money on them.
TOR (-195) at DET (178)
Pitchers: A. Manoah (ERA: 3.24 – Road ERA: 4.71 – Avg. ML: -122) vs. J. Urena (ERA: 6.47 – Home ERA: 7.47 – Avg. ML: 152)
Pick: Lean DET
STL (-176) at PIT (161)
Pitchers: A. Wainwright (ERA: 3.12 – Road ERA: 4.15 – Avg. ML: -113) vs. S. Brault (ERA: 1.98 – Home ERA: 3.6 – Avg. ML: 165)
Pick: Lean STL
HOU (-223) at TEX (201)
Pitchers: F. Valdez (ERA: 2.98 – Road ERA: 3.24 – Avg. ML: -141) vs. K. Allard (ERA: 5.33 – Home ERA: 5.21 – Avg. ML: 162)
Pick: Lean HOU
Notes: Money is hitting Houston and line is getting better for them. Seems trappish.
WSH (187) at NYM (-206)
Pitchers: S. Nolin (ERA: 9 – Road ERA: 9 – Avg. ML: 196) vs. M. Stroman (ERA: 2.88 – Home ERA: 3.03 – Avg. ML: -113)
Pick: Lean WSH
CHC (247) at CWS (-277)
Pitchers: A. Mills (ERA: 4.21 – Road ERA: 3.88 – Avg. ML: 117) vs. L. Lynn (ERA: 2.21 – Home ERA: 2.25 – Avg. ML: -133)
Pick: Lean CWS
SD (-122) at LAA (113)
Pitchers: R. Weathers (ERA: 5.84 – Road ERA: 3.64 – Avg. ML: -126) vs. J. Suarez (ERA: 5.45 – Home ERA: 8.04 – Avg. ML: 119)
Pick: Lean LAA
COL (223) at LAD (-248)
Pitchers: J. Gray (ERA: 4.12 – Road ERA: 4.53 – Avg. ML: 137) vs. D. Price (ERA: 4.15 – Home ERA: 4.01 – Avg. ML: -164)
Pick: Lean LAD