Degen Show (9/23/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 9/23/21
NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Football
Carolina at Houston
Spread: Lean Houston +8
Total: Lean Over 43.5 (45)
Predicted Score: Carolina 24 – Houston 21
Overview: The Houston Texans will turn to 3rd round draft pick Davis Mills to replace the injured Tyrod Taylor. Prior to Tyrod getting injured, there was some hope that the Texans could remain competitive this season. Without him, it does look bleak. Even worse for them is that Carolina has looked good so far and Darnold has turned the page on his Jets career misery.
Carolina currently has the best defense in the league statistically. Whether that’s a reality or just their competition so far is yet to be seen. And with the Texans as an opponent this week, we still might not be sure.
The Panthers should be able to go on the road – in a short week – and get the win. But even running the numbers without Tyrod there I can only get Carolina winning by 3. So with that, I’ll lean the Texans here.
As for the total, I do have this going over. But not by enough to feel OK betting it. So a lean on the over as well.
NFL Week 3 Fantasy
Week 2 Fantasy Overview
Another bad week in DFS mostly because I lost Jarvis Landry after he only score 1.4 points. My flyer on Desean Jackson as Flex bombed and I didn’t hit on the big players of Derek Henry, Cooper Kupp or Kyler Murray. Rondale Moore was also a solid play last week and seems like a lot of the winning teams had him as a value play.
In my PPR league, I lost my week 2 matchup because I was up against the dude who had Derek Henry.
Kyler Murray (ARI)* – I mean, he’s the top QB this week and going against the fucking Jaguars. He’s going to cost you. But such is life. $9,000 at Fanduel.
*I will cover my play at QB during the value section but if you want guaranteed points at QB, Murray is your play.
Derrick Henry (TEN) – Probably a week late on Henry but he’s showing no signs of slowing down this year. I will save some money at QB – as I will get to – so I’ll spend on running back here. Indy is a tougher matchup but Henry has done well against them. I’m spending $9700 on him at Fanduel.
Cooper Kupp (LAR) – Again, probably a week late, but Tampa’s secondary has had some issues and that game could be a shootout. Stafford has a great connection with Kupp and at $7900, he’s a start for me.
Travis Kelce (KC) – Waller is less expensive (Kelce is $8500 on Fanduel and Waller is $7400) but Carr is a bit banged up and Miami’s defense is pretty solid. KC will want to come out with a big division win and Kelce should get some big plays this week.
Las Vegas – Here me out. Miami did not look good offensively last week and the Raiders’ defense is better than expected. At $4000 it has some potential to be a value play.
Joe Burrow (CIN) and Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) – Not a fan of either of these guys. Burrow is facing a tough defense and still has a bad o-line protecting him. Big Ben has not looked great this year and the Bengals’ defense is improving.
Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel (LAR) – No one can run on the Bucs and these guys won’t have success. They will get some touches so Stafford can establish the play-action – which has had success this year. But I can’t see either guy producing a lot of yards against Tampa.
Corey Davis (NYJ) – Unless he’s wearing a Broncos jersey this week I don’t see him catching a lot of passes from Zach Wilson.
Gerald Everett (SEA) – Mostly because Minnesota’s secondary is so bad that the wide receivers should get plenty of action and Russ won’t need to dump off to Everett.
Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) – Much like Darnold, Teddy will get a chance to beat up the Jets. Denver has some good offensive weapons and Bridgewater is capable of using them on New York. I got him for $7300 on Fanduel.
Ty’Son Williams (BAL) – There is a logjam and uncertainty at running back in Baltimore but Williams has shined. Baltimore should get out to a lead over the Lions and Williams should get some touches. I put him in at Flex for $6400.
Rondale Moore (ARI) – Murray gave some love to Moore last week and with Hopkins a bit banged up (plus for only $5600) he’s a solid wide receiver value play.
SEA (140) at OAK (-153)
Pitchers: Y. Kikuchi (ERA: 4.35 – Road ERA: 4.45 – Avg. ML: 118) vs. C. Bassitt (ERA: 3.32 – Home ERA: 2.77 – Avg. ML: -127)
Pick: Bet $10 OAK
Notes: Seattle is on the verge of a 4-game sweep of the A’s today. They are already a game ahead of the A’s in the standings and a win today could really bunch up the competition for the AL Wild Card. I just don’t think it happens. Kikuchi has had a nice season but he’s struggled lately. He will match up against a returning Chris Bassitt who is returning from facial surgery a month ago after taking a line drive to the head.
Seattle seems to have Oakland’s number but I think the A’s avoid the sweep today. $10 bet on Oakland.
SF (-109) at SD (101)
Pitchers: L. Webb (ERA: 2.83 – Road ERA: 3.71 – Avg. ML: -109) vs. Y. Darvish (ERA: 4.23 – Home ERA: 3.23 – Avg. ML: -154)
Pick: Bet $10 SF
Notes: The Giants will go for the sweep today after pulling out a good win yesterday over the Padres. A win today would make San Francisco a 100-win team – the first team in the majors to get there. Yu Darvish is coming off a great start but he’s been erratic lately. I like Logan Webb for the Giants today but more importantly, I like San Francisco’s ability to score runs.
$10 bet on the Giants.
CWS (-140) at CLE (129)
Pitchers: R. Lopez (ERA: 3.82 – Road ERA: 3.94 – Avg. ML: -111) vs. A. Civale (ERA: 3.66 – Home ERA: 4.27 – Avg. ML: -101)
Pick: Lean CLE
STL (109) at MIL (-118)
Pitchers: A. Wainwright (ERA: 2.91 – Road ERA: 3.19 – Avg. ML: -112) vs. A. Houser (ERA: 3.64 – Home ERA: 3.21 – Avg. ML: -119)
Pick: Lean STL
LAD (-244) at COL (219)
Pitchers: M. Scherzer (ERA: 2.1 – Road ERA: 2.28 – Avg. ML: -130) vs. K. Freeland (ERA: 4.53 – Home ERA: 5.44 – Avg. ML: 145)
Pick: Lean LAD
ATL (-184) at ARI (168)
Pitchers: C. Morton (ERA: 3.48 – Road ERA: 2.85 – Avg. ML: -134) vs. M. Bumgarner (ERA: 4.59 – Home ERA: 4.32 – Avg. ML: 129)
Pick: Lean ATL
CWS (-118) at CLE (-100)
Pitchers: L. Lynn (ERA: 2.48 – Road ERA: 2.12 – Avg. ML: -138) vs. Z. Plesac (ERA: 4.73 – Home ERA: 4.29 – Avg. ML: 104)
Pick: Lean CWS
WSH (170) at CIN (-200)
Pitchers: P. Corbin (ERA: 6.22 – Road ERA: 6.13 – Avg. ML: 114) vs. L. Castillo (ERA: 4.23 – Home ERA: 3.24 – Avg. ML: -111)
Pick: Lean WSH
PIT (210) at PHI (-233)
Pitchers: C. Overton (ERA: 0 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 130) vs. A. Nola (ERA: 4.61 – Home ERA: 3.57 – Avg. ML: -130)
Pick: Lean PHI
TEX (105) at BAL (-125)
Pitchers: G. Otto (ERA: 9.94 – Road ERA: 12.33 – Avg. ML: 183) vs. Z. Lowther (ERA: 12.27 – Home ERA: 13.37 – Avg. ML: 185)
Pick: Lean BAL
TOR (-140) at MIN (129)
Pitchers: S. Matz (ERA: 3.95 – Road ERA: 3.77 – Avg. ML: -123) vs. M. Pineda (ERA: 3.93 – Home ERA: 4.02 – Avg. ML: 104)
Pick: Lean TOR
HOU (-164) at LAA (150)
Pitchers: L. McCullers Jr. (ERA: 3.18 – Road ERA: 2.59 – Avg. ML: -147) vs. A. Cobb (ERA: 3.71 – Home ERA: 2.38 – Avg. ML: -107)
Pick: Lean LAA