Degen Show (9/25/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 9/25/21
NFL Week 3
Arizona vs. Jacksonville
Spread: Bet $50 Arizona -7.5
Total: Lean Over 51.5 (53)
Predicted Score: Arizona 35 – Jacksonville 18
Notes: Arizona was in Jacksonville’s place not too long ago. A coach from college and a number #1 pick at QB. A few years later and Kliff Kingsbury has his team 2-0 and looking like a playoff team. For Jacksonville, nothing has looked great so far this season.
The Jaguars’ defense is a shell of what it once was. They will have a rookie corner to face off against Rondale Moore as Shaquill Griffin tries to stop Deandre Hopkins. Who covers Christian Kirk and AJ Green is an unknown.
I like Arizona to go on the road an blowout the Jags here.
$50 bet on the Cardinals.
Atlanta vs. NY Giants
Spread: Bet $50 Atlanta +3
Total: Lean Under 47.5 (40)
Predicted Score: Atlanta 21 – NY Giants 19
Notes: Daniel Jones has better throwing stats than Matt Ryan and better rushing stats than Mike Davis. But the Giants have the same 0-2 record that the Falcons have. Now it’s easy to say that both teams suck.
Both teams suck.
But the Falcons actually hung with the Bucs last week until some 4th quarter turnovers. And the Giants could easily be 1-1 after a narrow loss to Washington. So I expect this to be better than a shitty game.
I like Atlanta to pull off the upset. But I’ll take the points. $50 bet on the Falcons.
Miami vs. Las Vegas
Spread: Bet $50 Las Vegas -3.5
Total: Lean Over 44 (45)
Predicted Score: Las Vegas 29 – Miami 16
Notes: Are the Raiders actually that good? I’ve been on them in consecutive weeks and make it 3 in a row. Las Vegas’ offense is doing well and while Miami will present some challenges, the Dolphins’ sputtering offense will put them in a spot where the defense may be on the field often.
Maybe Jacoby Brissett will give the Dolphins a better chance at scoring than Tua. Or maybe he’s worse and that 35-0 loss to the Bills will be what the future has in store.
$50 bet on the Raiders.
NY Jets vs. Denver
Spread: Lean Denver -10.5
Total: Bet $50 Under 41.5 (34)
Predicted Score: Denver 23 – NY Jets 11
Notes: Teddy Bridgewater will be yet another former Jet QB to come in this season to try to nab a win. Maybe Geno Smith or Mark Sanchez will get a chance too. It really doesn’t matter. This Jets team is not very good and whatever QB they have does not have enough weapons to be effective.
Denver does have the weapons needed to compete. Melvin Gordon has looked good so far while Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton allow Bridgewater room to make some errors he couldn’t get away with in the past.
Denver should win and cover here but that’s not my play. Jumping all over the under here. $50 bet on the Broncos.
Tampa Bay vs. LA Rams
Spread: Lean Tampa Bay -1
Total: Bet Over 55.5 (65)
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay 36 – LA Rams 29
Notes: This could be the game of the day and I don’t expect it to disappoint. Both teams have the ability to put up some points – though the Bucs are the more dynamic offense with old man Brady looking like he’s only 35. The Rams have looked incredibly better with Stafford at QB. His play action pass and connections to Cooper Kupp have been fun to watch so far.
Defensively, both teams are strong – though the Rams are probably the better overall defense. The Bucs can stop the run but issues in their secondary could lead to points scored.
And that’s where I am at in this game. I do have the Bucs winning and covering but I won’t bet them. I’ll bet the over though.
$50 bet on the over.
Seattle vs. Minnesota
Spread: Bet $50 Minnesota +2
Total: Lean Over 55 (60)
Predicted Score: Minnesota 31 – Seattle 29
Notes: Seattle lost a close one last week and the Vikings will look to prevent from going 0-3 to start the season. The Vikings losses have been close too – an OT loss to the Bengals in week 1 and a 1-point loss to the Cardinals last week.
As much as I despise Kirk Cousins, he really has not been the issue. His stats are on par with Russell Wilson’s, in fact. But as good as he plays, wins do not follow.
For Seattle, they won’t get a reprieve defensively as Dalvin Cook will look to reproduce what Derek Henry did to Seattle last week. Ultimately I do think the Vikings grab the win – but I’ll take the fucking points here. Because, you know, Kirk.
$50 bet on the Vikings.
Indianapolis vs. Tennessee
Spread: Lean Indianapolis +5
Total: Lean Under 48 (48)
Predicted Score: Tennessee 24 – Indianapolis 24
Baltimore vs. Detroit
Spread: Lean Baltimore -7.5
Total: Lean Over 50 (53)
Predicted Score: Baltimore 31 – Detroit 22
Washington vs. Buffalo
Spread: Lean Buffalo -7.5
Total: Lean Over 45.5 (51)
Predicted Score: Buffalo 30 – Washington 21
New Orleans vs. New England
Spread: Lean New Orleans +2.5
Total: Lean Over 42.5 (46)
Predicted Score: New Orleans 25 – New England 21
LA Chargers vs. Kansas City
Spread: Kansas City -7
Total: Lean Under 54.5 (51)
Predicted Score: Kansas City 29 – LA Chargers 22
Chicago vs. Cleveland
Spread: Lean Cleveland -7.5
Total: Lean Over 45 (46)
Predicted Score: Cleveland 27 – Chicago 19
Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
Spread: Lean Cincinnati +3
Total: Lean Over 43 (46)
Predicted Score: Pittsburgh 24 – Cincinnati 22
Green Bay vs. San Francisco
Spread: Lean Green Bay +3
Total: Lean Under 50.5 (50)
Predicted Score: San Francisco 26 – Green Bay 24
KC (112) at DET (-122)
Pitchers: J. Heasley (ERA: 0 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0) vs. T. Skubal (ERA: 4.34 – Home ERA: 3.84 – Avg. ML: 132)
Pick: Bet $10 KC
MIA (185) at TB (-204)
Pitchers: S. Alcantara (ERA: 3.03 – Road ERA: 3.94 – Avg. ML: 108) vs. S. McClanahan (ERA: 3.34 – Home ERA: 3.65 – Avg. ML: -136)
Pick: Bet $10 TB
WSH (128) at CIN (-139)
Pitchers: E. Fedde (ERA: 5.22 – Road ERA: 5.28 – Avg. ML: 131) vs. V. Gutierrez (ERA: 4.59 – Home ERA: 5.63 – Avg. ML: 106)
Pick: Bet $10 WSH
SF (-139) at COL (128)
Pitchers: A. DeSclafani (ERA: 3.3 – Road ERA: 3.21 – Avg. ML: -103) vs. J. Gray (ERA: 4.81 – Home ERA: 4.97 – Avg. ML: 134)
Pick: Bet $10 COL
STL (-153) at CHC (141)
Pitchers: J. Lester (ERA: 4.92 – Road ERA: 4.81 – Avg. ML: 125) vs. A. Sampson (ERA: 3.21 – Home ERA: 3.6 – Avg. ML: 187)
Pick: Lean CHC
PIT (232) at PHI (-259)
Pitchers: W. Crowe (ERA: 5.89 – Road ERA: 6.47 – Avg. ML: 159) vs. R. Suarez (ERA: 2.07 – Home ERA: 2.02 – Avg. ML: -128)
Pick: Lean PHI
HOU (-103) at OAK (-105)
Pitchers: F. Valdez (ERA: 3.11 – Road ERA: 3.07 – Avg. ML: -147) vs. S. Manaea (ERA: 4.11 – Home ERA: 4.17 – Avg. ML: -115)
Pick: Lean HOU
NYY (104) at BOS (-112)
Pitchers: N. Cortes Jr. (ERA: 3.05 – Road ERA: 2.85 – Avg. ML: -125) vs. N. Pivetta (ERA: 4.7 – Home ERA: 5.87 – Avg. ML: -108)
Pick: Lean BOS
TEX (126) at BAL (-137)
Pitchers: J. Lyles (ERA: 5.78 – Road ERA: 6.23 – Avg. ML: 159) vs. C. Ellis (ERA: 2.94 – Home ERA: 4.43 – Avg. ML: 236)
Pick: Lean BAL
NYM (180) at MIL (-220)
Pitchers: R. Hill (ERA: 3.84 – Road ERA: 3.43 – Avg. ML: -107) vs. C. Burnes (ERA: 2.3 – Home ERA: 2.89 – Avg. ML: -152)
Pick: Lean MIL
TOR (-175) at MIN (150)
Pitchers: R. Ray (ERA: 2.68 – Road ERA: 3.36 – Avg. ML: -131) vs. J. Gant (ERA: 4.12 – Home ERA: 4.62 – Avg. ML: 120)
Pick: Lean MIN
ATL (-129) at SD (116)
Pitchers: H. Ynoa (ERA: 3.55 – Road ERA: 4.71 – Avg. ML: -129) vs. V. Velasquez (ERA: 6.32 – Home ERA: 5.15 – Avg. ML: 107)
Pick: Lean ATL
CWS (-191) at CLE (174)
Pitchers: L. Lynn (ERA: 2.48 – Road ERA: 2.12 – Avg. ML: -138) vs. E. Morgan (ERA: 5.26 – Home ERA: 7.63 – Avg. ML: 156)
Pick: Lean CWS
LAD (-227) at ARI (205)
Pitchers: C. Kershaw (ERA: 3.3 – Road ERA: 3.95 – Avg. ML: -169) vs. Z. Gallen (ERA: 4.66 – Home ERA: 4.63 – Avg. ML: 144)
Pick: Lean LAD
SEA (-140) at LAA (120)
Pitchers: T. Anderson (ERA: 4.08 – Road ERA: 4.72 – Avg. ML: 127) vs. J. Barria (ERA: 4.17 – Home ERA: 3.54 – Avg. ML: 145)
Pick: Lean SEA