Degen Show (9/27/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 9/27/21
Max’s NFL Week 3 Touchdown
Point #1: Worst of the West
Let’s start off in Kansas City where the Chiefs find themselves in last place after dropping the game to the Chargers yesterday. Justin Herbert outplayed Patrick Mahomes but KC dominated the run game – while limiting LA’s. Still, it was 4 KC turnovers – including two INTs from Mahomes – that helped doom the Chiefs.
No need to push the panic button just yet. But maybe keep your finger hovering over it as Reid heads to his former stomping grounds next week. Maybe. Seems like Andy Reid was feeling ill yesterday and went to the hospital. So we will see if Coach Bieniemy gets his debut next week.
Point #2: Mac and Jeez
After watching fellow rookie QB get picked off 4 times last week, Mac Jones decided that he wanted to play catch up in the interception stat battle as he threw three of them yesterday. On the opposite side of the field, Jameis Winston had a rather reserved day – throwing for 2 TDs and no INTs.
This game brings up a ton of questions. Are the Patriots that bad? Are the Panthers that fucking good? Okay, so not a ton of questions, but at least two.
Point #3: Road Warriors
Unlikely road teams won yesterday as the Bengals and Falcons joined the aforementioned Chargers and Saints as road dogs to win. Surprising, yes. But not really a shock. All three of us felt that the Bengals could win over that lackluster Steelers team and both Maxy and myself agreed that the Falcons would win on the road in New Jersey.
It was the perfect fitting to Eli Manning number retirement day since most of his games ended in losses as well.
Point# 4: 0-3 Club
The New York teams remain winless and are joined by a pair of AFC South teams as the Colts and Jaguars both also lost. Probably time to lock in the Titans for a playoff spot. The Giants kept it close once again but the Jets just look fucking putrid out there. The Lions round out the winless teams and honestly, they look like the best of the winless bunch.
Point #5: 3-0 Club
The Panthers were the first team to be 3-0 this season and are now joined by the Cardinals, the Broncos, the Raiders and the Rams. Green Bay took down the 49ers on a last minute drive in the Sunday night game to prevent them from starting 3-0 while it was the Rams who came out as the winner against the Tampa Bay. One of the undefeated teams should come to an end next week as the Rams square off against the Cardinals.
Point #6: Kick 6
Speaking of the Cardinals… Something incredible happened in their game yesterday. Jacksonville Jaguars Jamal Agnew scored the longest TD in NFL history by returning a 109-yard, failed field goal by Cardinals’ kicker Matt Prater. And for a brief period of time, betters of the Cardinals such as myself were shitting our collective cargo shorts. And trust me. Cargo shorts can fit a lot of shit in them.
But alas, the Cardinals went on to win and cover.
Extra Point: 66 Yards from Mediocrity
A kicker who managed to nail a kick was one Justin Tucker who hit a game-winning, 66-yard kick to push the Ravens to a win. But it certainly didn’t feel like a win. After narrowly beating the Chiefs last week, Baltimore barely scraped a win over the fucking Lions.
Now granted, they were on the road and yes, this is not your mama’s Matt Patricia shitshow. But still, this Ravens team doesn’t feel special to me. They are currently tied with both the Bengals and the Browns – with the latter team as a real possible threat to win the North.
Side note for this game: the Lions fans showered the team’s owner with boos during Calvin Johnson’s Hall of Fame ceremony and I think every long-suffering fan should get that chance every so often. So I’ll declare the last Mets home game this year as Steve Cohen appreciation day. Drag out the fucking Wilpons too. Your team’s fans have a present for you.
NFL Week 3 Monday Night Football
Philadelphia vs. Dallas
Spread: Lean Dallas -3
Total: Lean Under 51.5 (47)
Predicted Score: Dallas 26 – Philadelphia 21
Notes: The battle for first place in the East happens tonight as the Eagles head to Dallas to take on a Cowboys team that has looked pretty good to start the season. This will be Dak’s first home game since busting up his ankle last season and you know he’s going to want to put on a show.
But don’t forget that Jalen Hurts will feel right at home in Dallas. The Texas-native is making his second start against the Cowboys in Dallas as he finished last season as the Eagles’ starter and faced off against the Cowboys in Week 16.
I expect Hurts to be able to bounce back. In Week 1, he looked pretty damn good carving up the Falcons’ defense only to struggle last week against the 49ers. The Cowboys defense is still pretty awful and gives up the most passing yards per game so far this season.
Philadelphia’s pass defense has actually been solid – shutting down old man Matt Ryan and underwhelming Jimmy G. Dak is a bit more dynamic than either of these guys so we shall see if Philly can keep up.
I think Dallas does get the win and they should cover. But their defense is a huge liability. I’ll lean the Cowboys here. I’m also going to lean the under. Philly’s defense should be able to keep this game in the 20s.
CWS (-150) at DET (138)
Pitchers: D. Keuchel (ERA: 5.17 – Road ERA: 5.85 – Avg. ML: -118) vs. M. Manning (ERA: 5.94 – Home ERA: 4.6 – Avg. ML: 145)
Pick: Bet $10 DET
Notes: It’s kind of hard betting on games when neither team has anything to play for. I’m going to do that twice today. But that’s how life goes sometimes when some playoff spots are settled. Technically, the White Sox do have something to play for. Chicago has guaranteed the AL Central but they could chase down the Astros for a higher seeding and home field in their opening series.
Detroit literally has nothing to play for other than to assess players for next season. Who knows? Maybe they could be the next mediocre team to win the AL Central.
Still, the Tigers are 42-38 at home this year and their pitching has been sensational the past few weeks. Matt Manning’s name does not really fit into that conversation but he’s got comparable stats to the opposing Dallas Keuchel.
The value is on Detroit here to keep it close and maybe sneak out the win. $10 bet on the Tigers.
WSH (147) at COL (-160)
Pitchers: J. Gray (ERA: 4.89 – Road ERA: 4.63 – Avg. ML: 135) vs. G. Marquez (ERA: 4.19 – Home ERA: 3.51 – Avg. ML: 110)
Pick: Bet $10 COL
Notes: I have missed on Colorado quite a few times the past week when they were home dogs. Now I’ll take my chance with them as a chalky home favorite. The Nationals have not faired super well on the road this season. They did manage to take a game from the Reds and a pair from the Marlins this past week. But their pitching has been awful the past few weeks and heading into Coors with shitty pitching is a recipe for disaster.
I’ll bet $10 on the Rockies here. I also like the over 11.5 runs in this game. The Nationals are the 4th best offense in baseball the past two weeks and a top 10 over the past month. Their hitting, along with shoddy pitching, should result in some runs scored here. So another $10 bet on the over.
PIT (235) at CIN (-263)
Pitchers: D. Peters (ERA: 3.78 – Road ERA: 5.63 – Avg. ML: 151) vs. W. Miley (ERA: 3.41 – Home ERA: 3.52 – Avg. ML: -107)
Pick: Lean CIN
KC (145) at CLE (-158)
Pitchers: J. Kowar (ERA: 11.8 – Road ERA: 17.26 – Avg. ML: 115) vs. C. Quantrill (ERA: 3.13 – Home ERA: 2.32 – Avg. ML: 105)
Pick: Lean CLE
OAK (-101) at SEA (-107)
Pitchers: C. Irvin (ERA: 4.06 – Road ERA: 4.17 – Avg. ML: -109) vs. C. Flexen (ERA: 3.64 – Home ERA: 3.15 – Avg. ML: 120)
Pick: Lean SEA