Degen Show (9/29/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 9/29/21
DET (159) at MIN (-174)
Pitchers: C. Mize (ERA: 3.69 – Road ERA: 3.43 – Avg. ML: 138) vs. M. Pineda (ERA: 3.92 – Home ERA: 3.98 – Avg. ML: 106)
Pick: Bet $10 DET
Notes: The battle for the meaningless title of 2nd place in the AL Central continues today. For the Twins, it’s a disappointing season that points in the direction of a rebuild. For Detroit, they actually weren’t that shitty this year and have signs of being a promising team in the future.
One of those signs is 24-year-old, righty Casey Mize. If you download and listen to every single episode, you would know this dude is one of the young players that Panther has fawned over – a little too much fawning if you ask me – but nonetheless, a damn good pitcher.
The problem is, he’s young and on a bit of a pitch count. So his innings are getting less and less. Think of him as an extended opener as opposed to a starter. Still, he gives Detroit the ability to not fall behind and try to get to Pineda – who is pitching pretty decently himself as of late.
My numbers say the Twins win this one. Barely. So all of the value is on Detroit.
$10 bet on the Tigers.
CLE (-120) at KC (111)
Pitchers: Z. Plesac (ERA: 4.68 – Road ERA: 5.12 – Avg. ML: 105) vs. D. Lynch (ERA: 5.64 – Home ERA: 7.12 – Avg. ML: 139)
Pick: Bet $10 KC
Notes: Let me tell you a pretty Straight Story here: I’m running out of David Lynch movie titles to use. I’m going to have to go obscure with maybe some music video references. Maybe a “Wicked Game” reference.
It’d be fitting since baseball has been a wicked game for one Daniel Lynch. He has not been very good this year. Now, to be fair, he’s shown some instances of promise – and maybe he turns into the next Zach Greinke for KC. Because, you know, that story ended so well for them. But right now, he’s struggling to limit the damage. When one run seems to score, it opens up to a handful.
But there’s still value on betting KC at home with a plus line. The Royals nabbed the win yesterday and have played the Guardians better as of late as opposed to earlier in the year. I’ll take a shot here.
$10 bet on the Royals.
OAK (-112) at SEA (104)
Pitchers: F. Montas (ERA: 3.55 – Road ERA: 3.73 – Avg. ML: -114) vs. L. Gilbert (ERA: 5 – Home ERA: 5.07 – Avg. ML: 115)
Pick: Bet $10 SEA
Notes: The A’s have to win one game against Seattle. Right? The Mariners have won their last 11 games against Oakland. The last time the A’s beat Seattle was July 23rd. The A’s were a contender and the Mariners were a lucky team that we thought were about to fold.
So in this, their last game against the season against each other, Oakland has got to win. Nope. Sorry. I can’t do that to myself. You are giving me Seattle with a plus line against a team that they have made their absolute bitch all year. I have to take it.
Montas is a very good pitcher and probably does well today. But unless he throws a no-hitter, I can’t see the A’s winning. Shit, knowing how this season series has gone, he’d throw a no-hitter but walk someone and there would be some errors and a sac fly so he loses 1-0.
$10 bet on the Mariners.
WSH (101) at COL (-109)
Pitchers: P. Espino (ERA: 4.29 – Road ERA: 6.04 – Avg. ML: 136) vs. P. Lambert (ERA: 5.63 – Home ERA: 5.63 – Avg. ML: 167)
Pick: Lean WSH
CHC (-110) at PIT (-110)
Pitchers: K. Hendricks (ERA: 4.9 – Road ERA: 4.44 – Avg. ML: 103) vs. R. Contreras (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0)
Pick: Lean PIT
BOS (-239) at BAL (215)
Pitchers: N. Eovaldi (ERA: 3.94 – Road ERA: 4.74 – Avg. ML: -123) vs. Z. Lowther (ERA: 8.9 – Home ERA: 8.94 – Avg. ML: 178)
Pick: Lean BOS
NYY (-110) at TOR (102)
Pitchers: G. Cole (ERA: 3.12 – Road ERA: 3.06 – Avg. ML: -181) vs. J. Berrios (ERA: 3.67 – Home ERA: 3.5 – Avg. ML: -134)
Pick: Lean TOR
MIA (154) at NYM (-168)
Pitchers: E. Hernandez (ERA: 4.02 – Road ERA: 4.4 – Avg. ML: 131) vs. T. Walker (ERA: 4.62 – Home ERA: 3.45 – Avg. ML: 101)
Pick: Lean NYM
PHI (123) at ATL (-133)
Pitchers: A. Nola (ERA: 4.76 – Road ERA: 5.45 – Avg. ML: -131) vs. M. Fried (ERA: 3.19 – Home ERA: 3.23 – Avg. ML: -125)
Pick: Lean ATL
MIL (106) at STL (-124)
Pitchers: A. Houser (ERA: 3.53 – Road ERA: 4.03 – Avg. ML: -118) vs. M. Mikolas (ERA: 4.23 – Home ERA: 3.35 – Avg. ML: 102)
Pick: Lean STL
LAA (104) at TEX (-112)
Pitchers: J. Junk (ERA: 3.98 – Road ERA: 2.2 – Avg. ML: 144) vs. T. Hearn (ERA: 5.8 – Home ERA: 9.21 – Avg. ML: 160)
Pick: Lean TEX
TB (105) at HOU (-125)
Pitchers: D. Rasmussen (ERA: 2.12 – Road ERA: 2.14 – Avg. ML: -110) vs. L. Garcia (ERA: 3.33 – Home ERA: 2.14 – Avg. ML: -138)
Pick: Lean TB
CIN (153) at CWS (-167)
Pitchers: S. Gray (ERA: 4.13 – Road ERA: 3.06 – Avg. ML: -110) vs. C. Rodon (ERA: 2.39 – Home ERA: 2.47 – Avg. ML: -143)
Pick: Lean CIN
ARI (222) at SF (-248)
Pitchers: M. Kelly (ERA: 4.58 – Road ERA: 5.65 – Avg. ML: 155) vs. A. Wood (ERA: 4.43 – Home ERA: 4.57 – Avg. ML: -122)
Pick: Lean SF
SD (240) at LAD (-300)
Pitchers: R. Weathers (ERA: 5.98 – Road ERA: 4.17 – Avg. ML: -127) vs. M. Scherzer (ERA: 2.3 – Home ERA: 1.91 – Avg. ML: -132)
Pick: Lean LAD