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Degen Show (9/4/21)
Your favorite Degens give you their Sports Bet Picks for 9/4/21. Listen to the Degen’s MLB futures episode or their mulligan after the All Star break.
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 9/4/21
MLB
BAL (262) at NYY (-295)
Pitchers: C. Ellis (ERA: 5 – Road ERA: 2.14 – Avg. ML: 228) vs. J. Montgomery (ERA: 3.74 – Home ERA: 3.72 – Avg. ML: -121)
Pick: Bet $10 BAL
Notes: I’m going to kick things off with a lottery ticket. And maybe yesterday was the game the Orioles could have won. Still, I think there is value with Baltimore today. Not a ton of data on Chris Ellis this season and he entered the year as a relief pitcher. And he’s the definition of a journeyman – only without a ton of playing time.
He was drafted by the Angels. Traded to the Braves. Traded to the Cardinals. Selected by the Rangers in the Rule 5 draft. Traded to the Royals. Pitched one inning. Was sent back to the minors. Traded back to the Cardinals. Released. Signed by the Rays. Released. Claimed off waivers by the Orioles and now starting against the goddamn Yankees.
Montgomery is pitching well, the Yankees are 40-25 at home and Baltimore is 22-48 on the road.
Despite all that I am going to back him and the O’s today. Baltimore has played the Yankees tough all season and the payout is worth a flyer.
$10 bet on Baltimore.
STL (114) at MIL (-123)
Pitchers: K. Kim (ERA: 3.39 – Road ERA: 3.83 – Avg. ML: -103) vs. A. Houser (ERA: 3.96 – Home ERA: 3.34 – Avg. ML: -116)
Pick: Bet $10 STL
Notes: Maybe I am a day late on this one. I joked yesterday that the Brewers can beat anyone on the road but at home if the Pirates can beat them, then the Cardinals certainly can. Well, they did. So the question is can they do it again?
The Cardinals have managed to get back into a playoff race and are 1.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot. Part of that is their pitching has been very good. They’ve had the 5th best ERA the past 30 days. The other part is their hitting finally has come around – ranking 4th in batting average and 9th in runs scored the past 30 days.
I’ve made some money betting on St. Louis recently. As long as the opponent is not Pittsburgh.
$10 bet on the Cardinals.
HOU (-100) at SD (-108)
Pitchers: F. Valdez (ERA: 2.95 – Road ERA: 3.15 – Avg. ML: -145) vs. J. Musgrove (ERA: 3.03 – Home ERA: 2.37 – Avg. ML: -150)
Pick: Bet $10 HOU
Notes: Neither team has been the model of consistency lately but Houston showed up yesterday and I think they can do it again today. Framber Valdez had a bounceback August after seeing his ERA double in July. Musgrove also had a good month – though a beatdown by the D-Backs a few weeks back is a reminder that when he’s off – he gets hit hard.
And this Astros team can be relentless. So if Musgrove is not pitching an A game, this could get out of hand. I like Houston to get to him and secure the win today.
$10 bet on the Astros.
Leans
NYM (-165) at WSH (140)
Pitchers: M. Stroman (ERA: 2.88 – Road ERA: 2.78 – Avg. ML: -116) vs. E. Fedde (ERA: 5.22 – Home ERA: 5.05 – Avg. ML: 132)
Pick: Lean NYM
PIT () at CHC ()
Pitchers: Undecided (ERA: 0 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0) vs. K. Hendricks (ERA: 4.5 – Home ERA: 5.2 – Avg. ML: -100)
Pick: TBD
OAK (153) at TOR (-167)
Pitchers: P. Blackburn (ERA: 2.94 – Road ERA: 5.29 – Avg. ML: 138) vs. J. Berrios (ERA: 3.73 – Home ERA: 3.57 – Avg. ML: -133)
Pick: Lean TOR
MIN (183) at TB (-202)
Pitchers: A. Albers (ERA: 0 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 121) vs. C. Archer (ERA: 2.22 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -142)
Pick: Lean TB
CLE (170) at BOS (-186)
Pitchers: E. Morgan (ERA: 5.4 – Road ERA: 4 – Avg. ML: 150) vs. T. Houck (ERA: 4.18 – Home ERA: 4.08 – Avg. ML: -127)
Pick: Lean BOS
NYM () at WSH ()
Pitchers: T. Megill (ERA: 4.16 – Road ERA: 4.12 – Avg. ML: -107) vs. J. Gray (ERA: 4.37 – Home ERA: 4.24 – Avg. ML: 141)
Pick: TBD
PHI (-112) at MIA (104)
Pitchers: R. Suarez (ERA: 2.18 – Road ERA: 3.75 – Avg. ML: -119) vs. T. Rogers (ERA: 2.46 – Home ERA: 2.69 – Avg. ML: 109)
Pick: Lean MIA
CWS (-156) at KC (143)
Pitchers: R. Lopez (ERA: 1.8 – Road ERA: 3.86 – Avg. ML: -107) vs. D. Lynch (ERA: 4.7 – Home ERA: 5.72 – Avg. ML: 146)
Pick: Lean CWS
DET (169) at CIN (-185)
Pitchers: M. Boyd (ERA: 3.59 – Road ERA: 5.27 – Avg. ML: 136) vs. T. Mahle (ERA: 3.62 – Home ERA: 6.07 – Avg. ML: -117)
Pick: Lean DET
ATL (-116) at COL (107)
Pitchers: I. Anderson (ERA: 3.43 – Road ERA: 3.21 – Avg. ML: -117) vs. G. Marquez (ERA: 3.94 – Home ERA: 3.16 – Avg. ML: 108)
Pick: Lean ATL
SEA () at ARI ()
Pitchers: M. Gonzales (ERA: 4.1 – Road ERA: 3.61 – Avg. ML: 109) vs. H. Castellanos (ERA: 0.99 – Home ERA: 0.99 – Avg. ML: 124)
Pick: TBD
LAD () at SF ()
Pitchers: J. Urias (ERA: 3.33 – Road ERA: 2.74 – Avg. ML: -170) vs. Undecided (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0)
Pick: TBD
TEX (142) at LAA (-155)
Pitchers: K. Allard (ERA: 5.49 – Road ERA: 5.48 – Avg. ML: 166) vs. J. Suarez (ERA: 5.47 – Home ERA: 7.5 – Avg. ML: 121)
Pick: Lean TEX
