Degen Show (9/9/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 9/9/21
TOR (105) at NYY (-113)
Pitchers: J. Berrios (ERA: 3.75 – Road ERA: 3.88 – Avg. ML: -133) vs. N. Cortes Jr. (ERA: 2.95 – Home ERA: 2.66 – Avg. ML: -122)
Pick: Bet $10 TOR
Notes: After Toronto got the win yesterday, the Yankees have now lost 5 in a row and fell behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card hunt. And Toronto is now only 1.5 games behind them. If the Blue Jays finish the 4-game sweep today, that will be down to .5 games.
And I think that’s what happens today. Berrios has been just a decent pitcher since joining the Jays but he’s still pretty damn good. Cortes Jr. has been very good in his time this season but the Toronto bats are hot right now. They rank 6th in runs scored over the past 2 weeks and second over the past week. They are 6th in batting average over the past 2 weeks and 4th over the past week.
While the Yankees have one of the best team ERAs on the season, they have a 4.62 ERA the past two weeks – ranking 18th in the MLB. Toronto has posted a 3.29 ERA in that same span – good for 4th in the Majors.
So yeah, sweeps are unlikely. 4-game sweeps are very unlikely. But that’s my bet for today.
$10 bet on the Blue Jays.
LAD (-188) at STL (158)
Pitchers: J. Urias (ERA: 3.28 – Road ERA: 2.68 – Avg. ML: -170) vs. J. Woodford (ERA: 6.14 – Home ERA: 6.59 – Avg. ML: 126)
Pick: Lean LAD
CWS (124) at OAK (-135)
Pitchers: R. Lopez (ERA: 2.63 – Road ERA: 4.91 – Avg. ML: -111) vs. S. Manaea (ERA: 3.97 – Home ERA: 4.24 – Avg. ML: -113)
Pick: Lean OAK
MIN (124) at CLE (-134)
Pitchers: R. Dobnak (ERA: 7.88 – Road ERA: 5.23 – Avg. ML: 115) vs. C. Quantrill (ERA: 3.6 – Home ERA: 2.53 – Avg. ML: 108)
Pick: Lean CLE
NYM (-171) at MIA (157)
Pitchers: M. Stroman (ERA: 2.97 – Road ERA: 2.93 – Avg. ML: -118) vs. J. Luzardo (ERA: 6.84 – Home ERA: 5.79 – Avg. ML: 111)
Pick: Lean NYM
COL (165) at PHI (-181)
Pitchers: A. Senzatela (ERA: 4.23 – Road ERA: 4.64 – Avg. ML: 148) vs. R. Suarez (ERA: 1.81 – Home ERA: 1.53 – Avg. ML: -115)
Pick: Lean PHI
KC (-102) at BAL (-106)
Pitchers: C. Hernandez (ERA: 3.21 – Road ERA: 1.5 – Avg. ML: 141) vs. J. Means (ERA: 3.54 – Home ERA: 5.22 – Avg. ML: 124)
Pick: Lean KC
WSH (194) at ATL (-214)
Pitchers: E. Fedde (ERA: 5.41 – Road ERA: 5.35 – Avg. ML: 133) vs. H. Ynoa (ERA: 3.3 – Home ERA: 2.31 – Avg. ML: -118)
Pick: Lean ATL
NFL Thursday Night Football Week 1
Dallas at Tampa Bay
Spread: Tampa Bay -8 (Lean Dallas)
Total: 51.5 (Bet $50 over)
Overview: Before Dak went down with an injury last season, the Dallas offense looked fantastic. Their defense was shaky. After he was lost, the offense crumbled and the defense decided to fold as well. Let’s see if the defense is as historically bad as it was last season. They will get a big test in week 1 against the defending Super Bowl champs.
The Bucs have their team coming back and should click even better than they did last year. As such, they should win this game. But my metrics have this as a touchdown win and not covering the 8. So a lean on the Cowboys with the points.
What I do like here is the over 51.5. Even good defenses will take a few weeks to shake off some rust so I think some points will be scored today. And since this is not a true Thursday night, short-week game, the teams should be firing on all cylinders.
$50 bet on the over.
NFL Fantasy Week 1
Matt Ryan (ATL) – We’ve recently jumped on the Falcons’ bandwagon and Ryan draws an Eagles defense with some holes in it. I like him to put up some big numbers this week. At $7300 at FanDuel, he’s going to provide some value too.
Raheem Mostert (SF) – He looked good in preseason and will test whether if the Lions’ defense will be any better with Dan Campbell as coach. I tend not to think so. At $6100 at FanDuel, he’s a nice back to add to your lineup.
Adam Thielen (MIN) – Trae Waynes will be out for the Bengals and if Thielen gets Eli Apple as his matchup it could lead to some TDs and/or big yard plays. Justin Jefferson will cost you $8000 at FanDuel while Thielen is $7300.
Travis Kelce (KC) – Eh fuck it. I need to spend my money somewhere, right? $8000 at FanDuel makes him the highest TE this week. Get used to that.
San Francisco 49ers – I mean, it’ll cost you $5000 at FanDuel, but worth it against Jared fucking Goff and the Lions.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – Not high on Tua this year and he faces a tough Patriots defense in New England.
Zach Moss (BUF) – He’s faces a tough Steelers defense. Buffalo will try to win by the air and I just don’t see him getting the ball much.
Kenny Golladay (NYG) – The Giants still have o-line issues and Daniel Jones will face the Broncos’ pass rush. That means not a lot of time to find Golladay out there – who will also face a tougher secondary.
Dawson Knox (BUF) – Same as Moss for Buffalo, I just don’t like the match-up.
Russell Gage (ATL) – Matt Ryan will spread the love without Julio Jones as his blanket. Gage could see some action and is only $5,700 at FanDuel.