The Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a formula that is used to determine what percentage of your capital should be used in each bet to maximize growth and minimize risk.   

For this case here, we’re going to put up $100 and we’re going to use a “quarter Kelly”. It’s less aggressive, but we only have $100 and it could go sideways quickly. 

The Kelly is lauded as an amazing system, the former Prediction Machine and the current Linebacker both used or use it. I’ve never seen proof positive that the Kelly is worth a good god damn. 

I started tracking the Kelly in the beginning of the second half of the NBA 2019 season and it seemed to be very promising. Blogging the picks even on a crappy platform like Libsyn here will, I hope, keep me consistently updating it. 

These NBA picks will all be Moneyline plays. I’m not up for a debate everyday if the Brooklyn Nets have a 55% or 60% chance to cover -5.

Some Moneyline plays will be unusable for a good majority of bettors. The perils of starting with such a low bankroll and the “quarter Kelly” leads to some bets that are under $1. Bet 365 accepts bets under a dollar for both favorites and underdogs. So for tracking purposes I will include the results of such pititfully tiny bets.  

Of course, as with every betting method, your output is only as good as your input. Hopefully, these picks don’t suck.