Degen Show Part (6/8/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 6/8/21
ATL (5.5) at PHI (-5.5)
Pick: Lean ATL
Total: 223 (Lean Under – 223)
Predicted Score: ATL 110 – PHI 113
Notes: Joel Embiid played in game 1 and had a pretty damn good game. And the Sixers still lost. We talk about a team of destiny in the NHL. Could Trae Young and the Hawks be a team of destiny in the NBA?
Young and Luka will always be compared against each other. And Luka had a great playoff series against LA. But what Trae is doing on the court is reminiscent of Steph Curry’s breakout performance in the playoffs about 6 years ago.
The Hawks are a very deep team. And they have a frontcourt that can compete with Embiid. The injury report says he’s playing – and the treatment worked in game 1. Will he be ok today? I’d like to think the Sixers won’t go down 2-0 in the series at home. So they probably win. But cover? Not so sure.
Lean the Hawks with the points.
LAC (4) at UTA (-4)
Pick: Bet $15 ML UTA (-177)
Total: 220.5 (Lean Over – 229)
Predicted Score: LAC 114 – UTA 115
Notes: After losing game 1 of their series without their star player, the Jazz looked like the dominant team they have been all season in 4 straight games against Memphis. The Clippers? They are lucky to have survived the Mavs.
The Clippers were one of my favorite picks to win the title but after that first round, its hard to think they have what it takes to compete with the Jazz. But maybe I’m doubting Kawhi too much and he’ll make us all pay for that. Eh, whatever.
$15 ML bet on the Jazz.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-117) at Carolina Hurricanes (106)
Pick: Bet $20 Carolina
Notes: Carolina has fought hard in the series. They are down 3-1. Just goes to show you that a strong effort doesn’t always equal wins. I said before the last game that the game would go over. Didn’t think it would be over midway through the 2nd.
Tampa once again dominated the power play – scoring 3 goals when they had the advantage. It’s enough to make Carolina not want to play too aggressive on defense to avoid the penalty box and instead take their chances with Tampa 5 on 5.
Its hard to fade Vasilevskiy with how he’s playing in the postseason. And more than likely he and the Lightning close it out. But getting a plus line on a Carolina team that was pretty unbeatable at home this year is tempting.
Tampa got them twice in Carolina. Can they do it 3 times? Probably. But a $20 bet on the Hurricanes anyway.
Vegas Golden Knights (125) at Colorado Avalanche (-138)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Notes: We have ourselves a series and now as it shifts back to Colorado, the mighty Avalanche are a fraction of the plus line they were earlier in this series. Colorado was -195 in game 2. And yes, they got the win. But it was in that game that Vegas started to play elite hockey that eventually translated into consecutive wins at home.
With this line, the value play does become Colorado. I just fear Vegas. In two way. I fear the hockey team and the books. The majority of the money is hitting Colorado but line is getting better for them.
A lean on the Avalanche.
MIL (122) at CIN (-132)
Pitchers: A. Houser (ERA: 4.17 – Road ERA: 4.29 – Avg. ML: -102) vs. S. Gray (ERA: 3.89 – Home ERA: 3.9 – Avg. ML: -102)
Pick: Bet $10 CIN
Notes: Don’t look now. The Reds are on a 4-game winning streak. Granted, it was a sweep of the Cardinals – but still much better than we had come to expect from the Reds. Milwaukee is also riding a 4-game winning streak. Over the fucking Diamondbacks.
Pretty good pitching matchup today but both pitchers have had some rough starts this year. Gray has never really settled into form but maybe he takes a cue from Castillo and tosses a gem today.
$10 bet on the Reds.
HOU (-126) at BOS (116)
Pitchers: F. Valdez (ERA: 1.64 – Road ERA: n/a – Avg. ML: -124) vs. M. Perez (ERA: 3.21 – Home ERA: 4.24 – Avg. ML: -102)
Pick: Bet $10 HOU
Notes: I faded the Red Sox yesterday and it bit me in the ass. So might as well double-dip and fade them against a team that can actually score some fucking runs. The Astros will throw Framber Valdez on the mound today against Martin Perez.
Valdez has looked good through 2 starts and was lights out in his last one. Against the Red Sox.
The Sox have won 5 in a row and improved their home record yesterday to 17-13. The Astros started the season hot on the road and cooled off a bit. But I like them to reignite that flame today.
$10 bet on Houston.
TOR (138) at CWS (-150)
Pitchers: R. Ray (ERA: 3.33 – Road ERA: 4.3 – Avg. ML: 105) vs. C. Rodon (ERA: 1.75 – Home ERA: 2.06 – Avg. ML: -137)
Pick: Bet $10 CWS
Notes: Robbie Ray is on the bump today for Toronto but he has had some shaky starts on the road this year. He’s facing off against a potential Cy Young candidate in Carlos Rodon. Rodon is coming off his worst start of the year and should bounce back.
Yeah, I can argue that there is value in Toronto here at this plus line. Especially with how they play on the road. I just have Chicago winning this one by a lot.
$10 chalky bet on the White Sox.
CLE (-161) at STL (148)
Pitchers: S. Bieber (ERA: 2.98 – Road ERA: 2.86 – Avg. ML: -148) vs. C. Martinez (ERA: 5.91 – Home ERA: 4.29 – Avg. ML: 104)
Pick: Bet $10 STL
Notes: Now to balance out my chalk a bit. I’m on the Cardinals for some fucking reason. Yeah, I am fading Shane Justin Bieber and taking a Cardinals team that has lost 5 in a row and has a -19 run differential over that stretch.
But the soon to be named something elses of Cleveland are coming off a humiliating loss by the Orioles – that provided a stark reminder that Cleveland’s offense is not very good.
$10 bet on St. Louis.
LAD (-182) at PIT (166)
Pitchers: W. Buehler (ERA: 2.82 – Road ERA: 2.52 – Avg. ML: -189) vs. J. Brubaker (ERA: 3.81 – Home ERA: 2.04 – Avg. ML: 121)
Pick: Lean LAD
ATL (146) at PHI (-159)
Pitchers: D. Smyly (ERA: 6.04 – Road ERA: 4.98 – Avg. ML: -120) vs. A. Nola (ERA: 3.89 – Home ERA: 2.38 – Avg. ML: -137)
Pick: Lean PHI
NYM (-119) at BAL (110)
Pitchers: D. Peterson (ERA: 6.11 – Road ERA: 7.66 – Avg. ML: 102) vs. B. Zimmermann (ERA: 5.61 – Home ERA: 5.13 – Avg. ML: 146)
Pick: Lean BAL
COL (166) at MIA (-182)
Pitchers: A. Senzatela (ERA: 4.6 – Road ERA: 7.79 – Avg. ML: 158) vs. P. Lopez (ERA: 3.22 – Home ERA: 1.15 – Avg. ML: 101)
Pick: Lean MIA
SEA (102) at DET (-111)
Pitchers: M. Gonzalez (ERA: 2.08 – Road ERA: 3 – Avg. ML: 171) vs. M. Boyd (ERA: 4 – Home ERA: 2.9 – Avg. ML: 140)
Pick: Lean DET
WSH (171) at TB (-188)
Pitchers: J. Lester (ERA: 5.22 – Road ERA: 5.24 – Avg. ML: 114) vs. T. Glasnow (ERA: 2.74 – Home ERA: 1.74 – Avg. ML: -145)
Pick: Lean TB
SF (-137) at TEX (127)
Pitchers: A. Wood (ERA: 3.58 – Road ERA: 2.86 – Avg. ML: -106) vs. J. Lyles (ERA: 5.89 – Home ERA: 8.07 – Avg. ML: 161)
Pick: Lean SF
NYY (-114) at MIN (105)
Pitchers: J. Montgomery (ERA: 4.24 – Road ERA: 5.82 – Avg. ML: -139) vs. M. Pineda (ERA: 3.43 – Home ERA: 2.64 – Avg. ML: -132)
Pick: Lean MIN
KC (132) at LAA (-143)
Pitchers: K. Bubic (ERA: 2.56 – Road ERA: 1.5 – Avg. ML: 116) vs. A. Heaney (ERA: 4.97 – Home ERA: 6.4 – Avg. ML: -109)
Pick: Lean LAA
ARI (178) at OAK (-196)
Pitchers: J. Duplantier (ERA: 11.25 – Road ERA: 11.25 – Avg. ML: 152) vs. C. Bassitt (ERA: 3.56 – Home ERA: 2.99 – Avg. ML: -112)
Pick: Lean OAK
CHC (158) at SD (-173)
Pitchers: Z. Davies (ERA: 5.11 – Road ERA: 7.17 – Avg. ML: 107) vs. D. Lamet (ERA: 3.27 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -149)
Pick: Lean SD